# Shenwan Hongyuan Group (000166.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/000166.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 4.47 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 2.07 per share, central CNY 2.35 per share, high CNY 2.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 2.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.44×

- FY2017: 0.45×

- FY2018: 0.34×

- FY2019: 0.28×

- FY2020: 0.25×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.51×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 82.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 73.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.6%

- FY2017: 3.2%

- FY2018: 8.6%

- FY2019: 2.8%

- FY2020: 16.7%

- FY2021: 3.2%

- FY2022: 1.1%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 3.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 33B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 32B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 273.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2148.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.6% vs 2.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.28 to 0.21 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: CNY 11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 22B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.5%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.07

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.28

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.21

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 301M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 59B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.28

- FY2017: CNY 0.24

- FY2018: CNY 0.20

- FY2019: CNY 0.22

- FY2020: CNY 0.31

- FY2021: CNY 0.35

- FY2022: CNY 0.11

- FY2023: CNY 0.18

- FY2024: CNY 0.21

- FY2025: CNY 0.38

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: 1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 14.26×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.23×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 15.9%

- FY2017: 11.7%

- FY2018: 5.2%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: 5.2%

- FY2021: 8.4%

- FY2022: -5.6%

- FY2023: -10.2%

- FY2024: 0.7%

- FY2025: 1.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 22% since Sep 2024 · sales +17.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.256Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +17.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 15B 

- FY2017: CNY 13B 

- FY2018: CNY 15B 

- FY2019: CNY 24B 

- FY2020: CNY 37B 

- FY2021: CNY 44B 

- FY2022: CNY 30B 

- FY2023: CNY 31B 

- FY2024: CNY 33B 

- FY2025: CNY 39B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 86.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2020: 77.8% 

- FY2021: 76.8% 

- FY2022: 67.1% 

- FY2023: 68.3% 

- FY2024: 73.4% 

- FY2025: 86.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are CNY 38.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2025: revenue 38551224000; grossProfit 33377281000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 68.3% to 86.6% during 2023–25; it earns 3.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 68.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 73.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 86.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.045537176537000776],[2017,0.03220210388035395],[2018,0.08565199682218341],[2019,0.028281515135808306],[2020,0.1669275982098311],[2021,0.03244587354035269],[2022,0.011120321563348627],[2023,0.0202994406849441],[2024,0.02299188437773797],[2025,0.035497675995460304]]; median 0.03232398871035332. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 245429000; owner earnings 5392470000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 294938000; owner earnings 4544985000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2018: growth capex 11824000; upkeep 248870000; owner earnings 4160189000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0028421785644834885.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 222871000; owner earnings 6019580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 287551000; owner earnings 8044972000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 461827000; owner earnings 9555054000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 466304000; owner earnings 3006137638.3051567. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 585563000; owner earnings 4799608131.367516. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 541594000; owner earnings 5483584017.823219. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 417841000; owner earnings 9998896870.492651. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,4604490000],[2017,4056192000],[2018,4193836000],[2019,5096678000],[2020,6805636000],[2021,8336587000],[2022,8711444000],[2023,5828050000],[2024,957240000],[2025,2028236000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 38.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 000166.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 38.554 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:58.740Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11573343299606542. Price 4.47; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6067365446048304 → FY2025 0.39965187434607996. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 6.45 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 6.92 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 6.25 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 6.31 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 6.41 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 6.20 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 5.91 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 5.70 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 5.60 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 5.91 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 6.08 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 5.83 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 5.65 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 5.67 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 5.37 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 5.35 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 5.02 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 4.37 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 4.44 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 4.50 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 4.44 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 4.42 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 5.50 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 5.52 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 5.14 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 4.72 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 5.01 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 4.89 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 4.78 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 4.78 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 4.79 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 4.76 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 5.12 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 4.83 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 4.40 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 4.37 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 4.34 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 5.04 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 5.82 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 5.68 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 5.31 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 5.04 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 5.40 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 5.28 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 4.80 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 4.52 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 4.79 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 4.29 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 4.70 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 5.50 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 5.13 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 5.05 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 5.12 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 4.67 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 4.58 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 4.38 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 4.09 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 4.05 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 4.29 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 4.13 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 4.18 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 3.86 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 3.89 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 4.13 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 3.98 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 4.15 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 4.22 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 4.17 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 4.52 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 4.72 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 4.62 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 5.04 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 4.36 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 4.33 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 4.39 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 4.51 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 4.44 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 4.37 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 4.58 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 4.70 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 4.55 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 4.31 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 4.58 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 4.52 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 5.72 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 5.33 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 5.36 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 5.35 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 5.01 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 5.10 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 4.93 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 4.72 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 4.73 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 5.02 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 5.30 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 5.46 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 5.33 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 5.47 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 5.15 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 5.27 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 5.07 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 5.01 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 4.74 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 4.41 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 4.40 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 4.69 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 4.57 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 4.38 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 4.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 2.73 per share, central CNY 3.10 per share, high CNY 3.60 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 2.59 per share, central CNY 2.95 per share, high CNY 3.42 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 2.74 per share, central CNY 3.12 per share, high CNY 3.62 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 3.60 per share, central CNY 4.17 per share, high CNY 4.85 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 4.53 per share, central CNY 5.15 per share, high CNY 5.98 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 5.49 per share, central CNY 7.84 per share, high CNY 9.21 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 2.79 per share, central CNY 3.18 per share, high CNY 3.69 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 2.81 per share, central CNY 3.20 per share, high CNY 3.72 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 2.42 per share, central CNY 2.75 per share, high CNY 3.19 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 2.81 per share, central CNY 3.20 per share, high CNY 3.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations