# China Overseas (0688.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/0688.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 13.05 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 35.63 per share, central HKD 39.06 per share, high HKD 43.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 39.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 98.8% at the stated quote. About 98.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.34×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.25×

- FY2017: 0.31×

- FY2018: 0.34×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 11.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 26.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.4%

- FY2017: 11.1%

- FY2018: 11.4%

- FY2019: 9.2%

- FY2020: 8.2%

- FY2021: 7.5%

- FY2022: 4.2%

- FY2023: 4.3%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 2.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 117B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 117B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -5.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 8.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 58.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 234.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.4% vs 3.4%

- Per-share earnings: 3.72 to 1.43 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: CNY -64B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 161B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -11.3%

- Per-share value change: CNY -2.29

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 3.72

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.43

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 10B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 326B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 3.64

- FY2017: CNY 3.72

- FY2018: CNY 4.10

- FY2019: CNY 3.80

- FY2020: CNY 4.01

- FY2021: CNY 3.67

- FY2022: CNY 2.13

- FY2023: CNY 2.34

- FY2024: CNY 1.43

- FY2025: CNY 1.16

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -0.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.87×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.32×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.4%

- FY2017: 15.9%

- FY2018: 9.3%

- FY2019: 4.4%

- FY2020: 4.0%

- FY2021: 2.0%

- FY2022: 3.7%

- FY2023: -1.0%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: -0.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 47% since Jun 2022 · sales -9.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.704Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 34.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 162B 

- FY2017: CNY 167B 

- FY2018: CNY 171B 

- FY2019: CNY 164B 

- FY2020: CNY 186B 

- FY2021: CNY 242B 

- FY2022: CNY 180B 

- FY2023: CNY 203B 

- FY2024: CNY 185B 

- FY2025: CNY 168B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 29.8% 

- FY2017: 34.5% 

- FY2018: 38.5% 

- FY2019: 33.7% 

- FY2020: 30.0% 

- FY2021: 23.5% 

- FY2022: 21.3% 

- FY2023: 20.3% 

- FY2024: 17.7% 

- FY2025: 15.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are CNY 168.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2025: revenue 168088765000; grossProfit 26064455000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 0688.HK: China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, commercial property operations, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Macau. It is involved in the rental of properties; material procurement and supply chain management activities; issuance of guaranteed notes; property consultancy and real estate agency; and construction and building design consultancy activities. The company provides loan financing and security investment services; operates hotels; and develops and sells properties. In addition, the company engages in the investment and financing, land consolidation, regional planning, real estate development, engineering construction, industrial import, and property management businesses. Further, it offers urban services, including office buildings, flexible working space, shopping malls, star-rated hotels, long-term rental apartments, logistics parks, and architectural design and construction. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is a subsidiary of China Overseas Holdings Limited.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.5% to 20.3% during 2023–25; it earns 7.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12438846548748408],[2017,0.11135356794165797],[2018,0.11443104791523213],[2019,0.09179602222837718],[2020,0.08206907382183302],[2021,0.07502624328874336],[2022,0.04173682920467793],[2023,0.042857845973737756],[2024,0.0340281030667613],[2025,0.02201740489572341]]; median 0.0785476585552882. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 29.1% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 895172000; owner earnings 36472172000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 63132000; owner earnings 40896156000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 136449000; owner earnings 44965767000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 124691000; owner earnings 41688215600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 312655000; owner earnings 43823781400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 226129000; owner earnings 40210701800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 649192000; cash acquisitions 6071935000; owner earnings 23051262400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2634100855144489.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 204801000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 25599207200. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 198035000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 15700508200. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CPP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 226023000; cash acquisitions 3744221000; owner earnings 12859393800. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2911662134493463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,7053549000],[2017,8436276000],[2018,9312772000],[2019,9065709000],[2020,9966289000],[2021,10732163000],[2022,10878864000],[2023,7565651000],[2024,7498121000],[2025,5505276000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 66.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 0688.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 66.16300000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 34.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 11%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:49.922Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.47514019019344544. Price 13.05; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.7609383315811487 → FY2025 1.1749228540329095. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2016-10: HKD 23.95 per share

- 2016-11: HKD 22.40 per share

- 2016-12: HKD 20.55 per share

- 2017-01: HKD 22.95 per share

- 2017-02: HKD 23.90 per share

- 2017-03: HKD 22.20 per share

- 2017-04: HKD 22.60 per share

- 2017-05: HKD 23.40 per share

- 2017-06: HKD 22.85 per share

- 2017-07: HKD 26.50 per share

- 2017-08: HKD 27.35 per share

- 2017-09: HKD 25.40 per share

- 2017-10: HKD 25.30 per share

- 2017-11: HKD 24.80 per share

- 2017-12: HKD 25.15 per share

- 2018-01: HKD 30.30 per share

- 2018-02: HKD 27.50 per share

- 2018-03: HKD 27.25 per share

- 2018-04: HKD 26.55 per share

- 2018-05: HKD 26.25 per share

- 2018-06: HKD 25.85 per share

- 2018-07: HKD 24.65 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 24.85 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 24.50 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 24.55 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 27.30 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 26.90 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 29.50 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 28.90 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 29.80 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 29.35 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 27.20 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 28.80 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 26.90 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 24.80 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 24.65 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 24.80 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 26.25 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 30.35 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 25.25 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 26.15 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 24.05 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 28.45 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 23.60 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 23.45 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 23.60 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 22.45 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 19.40 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 19.40 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 18.86 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 16.86 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 17.48 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 19.64 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 20.20 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 19.66 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 18.56 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 17.64 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 16.30 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 17.90 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 17.74 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 17.16 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 17.96 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 18.46 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 22.95 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 23.85 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 23.45 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 24.45 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 22.80 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 24.80 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 21.65 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 21.20 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 20.45 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 14.98 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 21.10 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 20.60 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 21.15 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 19.46 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 18.96 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 19.84 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 15.88 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 17.08 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 18.36 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 16.54 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 16.24 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 14.78 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 14.44 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 13.76 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 11.76 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 11.64 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 11.26 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 14.58 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 14.74 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 13.54 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 12.66 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 12.38 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 15.92 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 14.86 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 13.34 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 12.40 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 12.36 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 14.40 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 13.90 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 13.82 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 13.20 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 13.62 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 13.60 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 13.91 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 14.36 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 13.03 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 13.29 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 12.25 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 14.04 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 14.35 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 11.55 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 13.28 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 15.62 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 12.06 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 13.51 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 12.53 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 13.16 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 13.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2016: low HKD 72.66 per share, central HKD 97.13 per share, high HKD 111.37 per share

- FY2017: low HKD 63.93 per share, central HKD 87.41 per share, high HKD 101.08 per share

- FY2018: low HKD 65.07 per share, central HKD 89.08 per share, high HKD 103.06 per share

- FY2019: low HKD 68.24 per share, central HKD 93.25 per share, high HKD 107.81 per share

- FY2020: low HKD 77.71 per share, central HKD 106.12 per share, high HKD 122.66 per share

- FY2021: low HKD 97.37 per share, central HKD 129.55 per share, high HKD 149.62 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 63.10 per share, central HKD 72.54 per share, high HKD 82.54 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 50.26 per share, central HKD 55.68 per share, high HKD 62.91 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 40.63 per share, central HKD 44.45 per share, high HKD 49.54 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 35.63 per share, central HKD 39.06 per share, high HKD 43.62 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:38.430Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations