# China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1378.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 19.51 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 41.85 per share, central HKD 56.76 per share, high HKD 65.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 56.76 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 28.6% at the stated quote. About 28.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.21×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.22×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.5%

- FY2017: 12.3%

- FY2018: 9.3%

- FY2019: 11.1%

- FY2020: 11.6%

- FY2021: 21.2%

- FY2022: 7.1%

- FY2023: 8.9%

- FY2024: 21.1%

- FY2025: 18.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 80B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 81B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 44.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 0.95×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.3% vs 18.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.68 to 2.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Market cap gain: CNY 222B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 37B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.8%

- Per-share value change: CNY 1.68

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.68

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 2.36

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.40

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 16B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 115B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.95

- FY2017: CNY 0.68

- FY2018: CNY 0.60

- FY2019: CNY 0.71

- FY2020: CNY 1.18

- FY2021: CNY 1.56

- FY2022: CNY 0.94

- FY2023: CNY 1.17

- FY2024: CNY 2.36

- FY2025: CNY 2.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.53×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.2%

- FY2017: -17.4%

- FY2018: -2.2%

- FY2019: -4.7%

- FY2020: -4.0%

- FY2021: -6.7%

- FY2022: 0.6%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -5.1%

- FY2025: -6.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 46% since Jan 2026 · sales +4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.193Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 11% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-24: China Hongqiao shares hit record high on upbeat profit forecast ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/china-hongqiao-shares-hit-record-high-on-upbeat-profit-forecast-4106932))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 61B 

- FY2017: CNY 93B 

- FY2018: CNY 90B 

- FY2019: CNY 84B 

- FY2020: CNY 86B 

- FY2021: CNY 114B 

- FY2022: CNY 132B 

- FY2023: CNY 134B 

- FY2024: CNY 156B 

- FY2025: CNY 162B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 25.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 23.1% 

- FY2017: 16.0% 

- FY2018: 17.1% 

- FY2019: 19.6% 

- FY2020: 22.5% 

- FY2021: 26.6% 

- FY2022: 13.8% 

- FY2023: 15.7% 

- FY2024: 27.0% 

- FY2025: 25.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aluminum; annual sales are CNY 162.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2025: revenue 162353725000; grossProfit 40780949000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1378.HK: China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company's products include molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum deep processing products, and alumina products; and aluminum fabrication products, aluminum alloy products, steam, and aluminum foils. It is also involved in the development and production of decorative foil, household foil, heat-sealed foil, candy foil, food foil, double zero foil, and other products. In addition, the company engages in research, development, mining, and sale of bauxite; financial leasing; and production and sale of electricity. China Hongqiao Group Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Zouping, the People's Republic of China. China Hongqiao Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Holdings Limited.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.7% to 27% during 2023–25; it earns 11.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 15.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08452942480175371],[2017,0.12339426587561918],[2018,0.09348912558443508],[2019,0.1106742404516313],[2020,0.11619614622820565],[2021,0.2120876083763962],[2022,0.07100504474706311],[2023,0.08949227480873996],[2024,0.211040356006858],[2025,0.18021056721047368]]; median 0.11343519333991847. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 18.3% of cash earnings; earns 44.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2016: growth capex 15971916000; upkeep 5649944000; owner earnings 6849829000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.331724777363055.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2017: growth capex 1059922000; upkeep 7867029000; owner earnings 5118566000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20707401252616456.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 5486828000; owner earnings 7267170000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3360139000; owner earnings 10130757400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 6129386000; owner earnings 11250935200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 6660773000; owner earnings 16112926800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2022: growth capex 3329985000; upkeep 6951059000; cash acquisitions 3203339000; owner earnings 8689902773.754179. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7518293552987012.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2023: growth capex 84735000; upkeep 7186035000; cash acquisitions 2602345000; owner earnings 11285590065.175817. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.23809831692288552.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2024: growth capex 5861633000; upkeep 6959900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 22180834600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2642656647374306.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2025: growth capex 3435208773.7062054; upkeep 7717696226.293795; cash acquisitions 492736000; owner earnings 21423439973.706207. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18334799539789687.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); Incremental return on capital 0.44774548288705757, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,930705000],[2017,3499624000],[2018,4862825000],[2019,1920945000],[2020,3768148000],[2021,7287761000],[2022,9023408000],[2023,4368578000],[2024,9348317000],[2025,11101513000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1378.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 5130300000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 62.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1378.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 62.61 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 11% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 26.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.231Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1664690348477048. Price 19.51; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.21120681393569044 → FY2025 2.2565181757690977. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2016-10: HKD 6.94 per share

- 2016-11: HKD 7.20 per share

- 2016-12: HKD 6.82 per share

- 2017-01: HKD 8.00 per share

- 2017-02: HKD 7.80 per share

- 2017-03: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-04: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-05: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-06: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-07: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-08: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-09: HKD 7.05 per share

- 2017-10: HKD 9.36 per share

- 2017-11: HKD 8.35 per share

- 2017-12: HKD 8.75 per share

- 2018-01: HKD 9.98 per share

- 2018-02: HKD 9.14 per share

- 2018-03: HKD 8.57 per share

- 2018-04: HKD 8.60 per share

- 2018-05: HKD 8.48 per share

- 2018-06: HKD 7.40 per share

- 2018-07: HKD 7.43 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 6.63 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 5.20 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 5.25 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 4.85 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 4.45 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 5.00 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 5.25 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 5.91 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 6.46 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 5.67 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 5.51 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 5.75 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 5.14 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 5.01 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 4.36 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 4.11 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 4.70 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 3.84 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 4.18 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 3.30 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 3.86 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 3.41 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 3.44 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 4.45 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 5.00 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 4.83 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 5.60 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 6.77 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 7.10 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 6.85 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 9.62 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 10.38 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 12.30 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 12.52 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 10.52 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 10.30 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 11.60 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 10.02 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 8.65 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 7.56 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 8.23 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 8.70 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 10.86 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 10.46 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 9.99 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 9.74 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 8.87 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 8.16 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 7.66 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 6.50 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 5.57 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 7.23 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 7.37 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 9.06 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 8.39 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 7.52 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 7.69 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 5.56 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 6.36 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 7.49 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 7.82 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 7.67 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 7.32 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 6.37 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 6.39 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 5.72 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 6.09 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 8.80 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 10.90 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 12.90 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 11.82 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 9.74 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 10.70 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 12.96 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 12.54 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 11.34 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 11.76 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 12.98 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 12.40 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 16.00 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 13.96 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 14.02 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 17.98 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 20.80 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 25.44 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 26.42 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 29.52 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 30.86 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 32.62 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 36.12 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 35.46 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 34.76 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 32.68 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 28.02 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 20.06 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 24.54 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 22.82 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 21.54 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 19.51 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2016: low HKD 5.14 per share, central HKD 5.59 per share, high HKD 6.19 per share

- FY2017: low HKD 11.91 per share, central HKD 13.12 per share, high HKD 14.73 per share

- FY2018: low HKD 18.64 per share, central HKD 24.19 per share, high HKD 27.41 per share

- FY2019: low HKD 18.11 per share, central HKD 23.52 per share, high HKD 26.67 per share

- FY2020: low HKD 19.65 per share, central HKD 21.57 per share, high HKD 24.11 per share

- FY2021: low HKD 26.69 per share, central HKD 35.84 per share, high HKD 41.16 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 26.07 per share, central HKD 31.14 per share, high HKD 35.84 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 27.33 per share, central HKD 34.92 per share, high HKD 40.32 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 39.47 per share, central HKD 54.18 per share, high HKD 62.74 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 43.28 per share, central HKD 58.70 per share, high HKD 67.68 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:15.359Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations