# Kajima (1812.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1812.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:20.550Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,616.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,794.67 per share, central JPY 6,535.13 per share, high JPY 7,548.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,535.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:20.550Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.3% at the stated quote. About 13.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 18.6%

- FY2018: 18.3%

- FY2019: 13.7%

- FY2020: 10.7%

- FY2021: 9.8%

- FY2022: 8.0%

- FY2023: 6.5%

- FY2024: 6.4%

- FY2025: 6.4%

- FY2026: 9.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 619B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 634B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 11.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 17.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.97×

- FY2026: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.3% vs 6.4%

- Per-share earnings: 101.01 to 266.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -7.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.25T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 774B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -7.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 12.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 165.48

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 101.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 266.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.45

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 26B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.18T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 18.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 101.01

- FY2018: JPY 244.29

- FY2019: JPY 211.67

- FY2020: JPY 200.99

- FY2021: JPY 193.13

- FY2022: JPY 208.00

- FY2023: JPY 227.98

- FY2024: JPY 238.76

- FY2025: JPY 266.49

- FY2026: JPY 379.81

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.65×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: 0.3%

- FY2019: 3.8%

- FY2020: 2.3%

- FY2021: -2.5%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: 5.1%

- FY2024: -0.3%

- FY2025: 2.8%

- FY2026: 1.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since Feb 2026 · sales +5.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.897Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 1.82T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.83T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.97T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.01T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.91T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.08T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.39T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.67T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.91T 

- FY2026: JPY 3.07T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 13.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 13.6% 

- FY2018: 14.1% 

- FY2019: 12.7% 

- FY2020: 12.3% 

- FY2021: 12.7% 

- FY2022: 12.3% 

- FY2023: 11.2% 

- FY2024: 10.9% 

- FY2025: 11.1% 

- FY2026: 13.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 3.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 3067275000000; grossProfit 425868000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.9% to 13.9% during 2024–26; it earns 9.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 13.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.18609947803552115],[2018,0.1831270499780639],[2019,0.13734013715509824],[2020,0.10717887078448153],[2021,0.09802004169003695],[2022,0.07990446458772109],[2023,0.0646700102196334],[2024,0.06411158822583943],[2025,0.06442481669446697],[2026,0.09148378949941464]]; median 0.09475191559472579. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 12% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.1265834930808693],[2022,0.12295793373547563],[2023,0.11168353627457006]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 13% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 11.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 8533000000; upkeep 19343000000; owner earnings 103603000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08236247985096956.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 14812000000; owner earnings 130141000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 7010000000; upkeep 19166000000; owner earnings 108867000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0643904948239595.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 6888618894.011047; upkeep 76968381105.98895; owner earnings 42866618894.01105. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16069890912188237.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 49346000000; owner earnings 66255000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 30474000000; upkeep 22611000000; owner earnings 101587000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2999793280636302.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 52239000000; upkeep 24711000000; owner earnings 108759000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4803188701624693.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 16867000000; upkeep 27270000000; owner earnings 112153000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15039276702361953.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 38988000000; upkeep 30851000000; owner earnings 122392000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3185502320413099.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 22654000000; upkeep 33472000000; owner earnings 173832000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13032122969303694.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.11941359385838703, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,16610000000],[2018,23873000000],[2019,26984000000],[2020,26306000000],[2021,25634000000],[2022,28125000000],[2023,29552000000],[2024,36851000000],[2025,47846000000],[2026,54012000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 20025000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 18.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.007836975266080626. Price 4616; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 66.5475487912857 → FY2026 372.30949462596004. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,604.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,618.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,574.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,464.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,452.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,514.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,702.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,896.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,924.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,018.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,236.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,346.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,358.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,168.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,158.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,044.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,974.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,110.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,776.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,716.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,742.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,600.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,651.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,456.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,571.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,478.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,546.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,648.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,634.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,645.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,489.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,478.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,408.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,293.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,417.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,496.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,443.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,458.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,406.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,163.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,109.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,130.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,222.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,284.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,156.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,321.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,262.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,112.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,373.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,382.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,401.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,358.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,571.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,510.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,407.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,403.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,423.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,442.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,400.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,251.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,321.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,380.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,544.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,491.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,450.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,386.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,557.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,516.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,469.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,373.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,401.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,550.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,536.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,594.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,627.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,598.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,795.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,955.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,170.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,246.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,433.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,433.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,479.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,336.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,356.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,644.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,777.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,133.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,033.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,658.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,781.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,920.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,658.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,675.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,653.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,733.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,881.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,769.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,114.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 3,048.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,407.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,564.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,763.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,793.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,405.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,316.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,976.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,820.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,835.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 6,300.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,142.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,907.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,117.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,907.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,872.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,383.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 4,838.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,949.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,730.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,793.23 per share, central JPY 3,118.53 per share, high JPY 3,551.58 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,782.25 per share, central JPY 3,092.94 per share, high JPY 3,506.53 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,687.97 per share, central JPY 2,994.56 per share, high JPY 3,402.68 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,501.43 per share, central JPY 4,793.60 per share, high JPY 5,546.03 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,790.64 per share, central JPY 5,146.78 per share, high JPY 5,936.46 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,156.23 per share, central JPY 5,668.21 per share, high JPY 6,548.64 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,794.67 per share, central JPY 6,535.13 per share, high JPY 7,548.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGGI.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations