# NH Foods (2282.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2282.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:28.753Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,072.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,499.79 per share, central JPY 1,781.05 per share, high JPY 2,052.49 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,781.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:28.753Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 7.4%

- FY2018: 7.4%

- FY2019: 4.1%

- FY2020: 3.9%

- FY2021: 5.9%

- FY2022: 6.6%

- FY2023: 2.8%

- FY2024: 4.6%

- FY2025: 4.3%

- FY2026: 5.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 142B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 154B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.83×

- FY2023: -0.27×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.22×

- FY2026: 1.30×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.4% vs 4.6%

- Per-share earnings: 322.54 to 273.70 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 142B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -2.0%

- Per-share value change: JPY -48.84

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 322.54

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 273.70

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.20

- Average buyback yield: 4.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 26B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 298B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 322.54

- FY2018: JPY 352.26

- FY2019: JPY 183.21

- FY2020: JPY 186.70

- FY2021: JPY 317.97

- FY2022: JPY 469.92

- FY2023: JPY 162.44

- FY2024: JPY 273.70

- FY2025: JPY 263.05

- FY2026: JPY 361.13

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.35×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.3%

- FY2018: -2.4%

- FY2019: -1.5%

- FY2020: -6.0%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: 1.6%

- FY2023: 0.6%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -5.4%

- FY2026: -4.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years · sales +6.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.935Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YEEQ.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: JPY 1.20T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.27T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.23T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.23T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.18T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.17T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.26T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.30T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.37T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.46T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 17.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YEEQ.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: 19.4% 

- FY2018: 17.5% 

- FY2019: 16.3% 

- FY2020: 16.7% 

- FY2021: 18.0% 

- FY2022: 17.0% 

- FY2023: 14.1% 

- FY2024: 15.6% 

- FY2025: 16.1% 

- FY2026: 17.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are JPY 1.5 trillion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NI6.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: revenue 1457391000000; grossProfit 250584000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.6% to 17.2% during 2024–26; it earns 5.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NI6.F.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NI6.F.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NI6.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 17.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.07430434497522244],[2018,0.07433626087410221],[2019,0.04106088130378963],[2020,0.03948471691840907],[2021,0.0585527708297673],[2022,0.0656345469928303],[2023,0.028088602880561427],[2024,0.0456180339997061],[2025,0.04345525777656291],[2026,0.0556005036527696]]; median 0.05060926882623785. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 9.7% of cash earnings; earns 5.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NI6.F.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 40183000000; owner earnings 15108000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2018: growth capex 10596000000; upkeep 21200000000; owner earnings 37147000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2852451072764961.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 36898000000; owner earnings 15652000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 59398000000; owner earnings 7327000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 44473000000; owner earnings 40040000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: growth capex 8760000000; upkeep 39719000000; cash acquisitions 1345000000; owner earnings 28078000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3598903055773203.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 35967000000; cash acquisitions 14361000000; owner earnings 32346000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.44398070858838806.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YEEQ.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 34470000000; cash acquisitions 4437000000; owner earnings 45642000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09721309320362824.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Incremental return on capital 0.05424649256049403, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Dividend observations: [[2017,6744000000],[2018,10980000000],[2019,11403000000],[2020,9271000000],[2021,9269000000],[2022,9610000000],[2023,10448000000],[2024,11325000000],[2025,12318000000],[2026,13457000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NI6.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: cash repurchases 30007000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04949604642221071. Price 2072.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 146.60200376509482 → FY2026 470.04778018593504. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,964.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,103.33 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,050.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,996.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,992.67 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,113.33 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,316.67 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,276.67 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,176.67 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,153.33 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,063.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,173.33 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,838.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,832.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,748.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,603.33 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,453.33 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,595.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,491.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,491.67 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,480.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,351.67 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,398.33 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,403.33 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,378.33 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,433.33 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,355.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,328.33 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,490.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,463.33 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,538.33 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,351.67 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,360.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,448.33 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,530.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,503.33 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,608.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,356.67 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,255.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,285.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,326.67 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,441.67 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,541.67 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,601.67 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,563.33 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,423.33 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,485.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,513.33 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,493.33 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,495.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,581.67 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,625.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,458.33 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,440.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,471.67 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,421.67 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,410.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,335.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,290.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,380.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,470.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,440.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,383.33 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,368.33 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,306.67 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,415.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,341.67 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,330.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,270.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,181.67 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,233.33 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,225.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,253.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,278.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,323.33 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,266.67 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,300.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,368.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,506.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,490.33 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,510.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,464.67 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,593.33 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,748.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,698.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,728.33 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,605.67 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,603.33 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,658.67 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,821.33 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,777.67 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,764.33 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,715.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,698.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,690.33 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,514.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,670.67 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,795.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,694.33 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,664.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,699.33 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,855.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,954.67 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,893.33 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,302.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,185.67 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,322.67 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,383.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,343.33 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,164.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,035.33 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,984.33 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,083.33 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,101.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,986.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,032.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 1,929.24 per share, central JPY 2,149.54 per share, high JPY 2,442.81 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 1,753.97 per share, central JPY 1,965.56 per share, high JPY 2,247.22 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 2,105.82 per share, central JPY 2,332.13 per share, high JPY 2,633.39 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,162.75 per share, central JPY 2,379.88 per share, high JPY 2,668.93 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,202.99 per share, central JPY 2,423.29 per share, high JPY 2,716.55 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,281.33 per share, central JPY 1,475.05 per share, high JPY 1,654.90 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,218.60 per share, central JPY 2,555.12 per share, high JPY 2,910.73 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,629.86 per share, central JPY 4,070.11 per share, high JPY 4,656.18 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,499.37 per share, central JPY 5,343.16 per share, high JPY 6,157.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YEEQ.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations