# Asahi Group Holdings (2502.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2502.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:33.505Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,632.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,470.90 per share, central JPY 1,664.82 per share, high JPY 1,922.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,664.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:33.505Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 10.9%

- FY2019: 10.0%

- FY2020: 6.4%

- FY2021: 11.0%

- FY2022: 10.3%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 11.7%

- FY2025: 6.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 803B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 783B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 1.11×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 0.84×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 194.75 to 107.94 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 12.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.89T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 12.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY -86.81

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 194.75

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 107.94

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.40T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 194.75

- FY2017: JPY 307.78

- FY2018: JPY 329.80

- FY2019: JPY 310.44

- FY2020: JPY 65.51

- FY2021: JPY 100.97

- FY2022: JPY 99.70

- FY2023: JPY 107.94

- FY2024: JPY 126.66

- FY2025: JPY 81.29

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.80×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: 0.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 10% since Oct 2023 · sales -1.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.963Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf; observed 2026-07-27.

- FY2016: JPY 1.71T 

- FY2017: JPY 2.08T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.12T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.09T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.03T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.24T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.51T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.77T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.94T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.89T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf; observed 2026-07-27.

- FY2018: 38.5% 

- FY2019: 37.9% 

- FY2020: 36.7% 

- FY2021: 38.1% 

- FY2022: 36.7% 

- FY2023: 36.1% 

- FY2024: 37.3% 

- FY2025: 37.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.9 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf (filed 2026-07-27); FY2025: revenue 2894676000000; grossProfit 1092841000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.1% to 37.8% during 2023–25; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf (filed 2026-07-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.10924453577697567],[2019,0.10026109336388692],[2020,0.06367179709079623],[2021,0.1099394491758725],[2022,0.10289421632853968],[2023,0.10105271776175763],[2024,0.11723173906181866],[2025,0.06118849006217548]]; median 0.10197346704514865. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 87888000000; owner earnings 163308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 85321000000; owner earnings 147809000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 90743000000; owner earnings 104122000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 92635000000; owner earnings 170465000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 99845000000; owner earnings 168822000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 109828000000; owner earnings 177682000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 136257000000; owner earnings 183720000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf (filed 2026-07-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 154707000000; owner earnings 102005000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); Dividend observations: [[2018,41229000000],[2019,48556000000],[2020,46265000000],[2021,54220000000],[2022,55738000000],[2023,57761000000],[2024,66374000000],[2025,79655000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0036285057774687046. Price 1632.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,240.67 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,230.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,323.33 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,323.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,402.67 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,401.67 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,473.67 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,409.33 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,499.67 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,596.33 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,518.67 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,720.33 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,902.33 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,863.33 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,830.33 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,830.33 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,889.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,845.33 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,898.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,890.67 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,807.33 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,673.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,641.67 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,656.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,584.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,423.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,602.33 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,643.33 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,609.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,592.33 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,578.33 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,652.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,783.33 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,755.33 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,661.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,695.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,383.33 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,170.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,246.67 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,352.67 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,258.67 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,148.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,237.67 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,218.67 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,074.33 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,345.67 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,414.67 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,404.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,537.33 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,555.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,521.67 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,739.67 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,730.33 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,637.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,704.67 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,807.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,719.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,398.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,491.33 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,556.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,487.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,621.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,446.67 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,481.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,540.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,557.67 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,494.67 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,388.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,466.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,373.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,427.33 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,605.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,641.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,747.67 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,803.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,858.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,865.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,892.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,863.33 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,812.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,818.33 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,752.67 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,836.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,711.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,801.67 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,913.67 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,891.67 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,851.67 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,809.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,878.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,839.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,629.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,657.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,684.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,912.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,972.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,906.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,927.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,919.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,856.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,775.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,661.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,639.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,612.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,699.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,585.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,523.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,666.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,676.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,591.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,596.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 1,277.53 per share, central JPY 1,453.68 per share, high JPY 1,688.16 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,341.68 per share, central JPY 1,526.25 per share, high JPY 1,771.96 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,376.02 per share, central JPY 1,563.46 per share, high JPY 1,812.98 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,423.33 per share, central JPY 1,610.50 per share, high JPY 1,859.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:33.505Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-07-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations