# Sojitz (2768.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2768.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:37.344Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,333.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 7,311.76 per share, central JPY 9,649.32 per share, high JPY 11,154.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 9,649.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:37.344Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.5% at the stated quote. About 16.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- FY2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.4%

- FY2018: 6.5%

- FY2019: 7.7%

- FY2020: 6.8%

- FY2021: 3.3%

- FY2022: 6.6%

- FY2023: 9.3%

- FY2024: 8.2%

- FY2025: 7.5%

- FY2026: 6.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.88×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 448B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 509B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.90×

- FY2023: 0.86×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 0.85×

- FY2026: 0.87×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.5% vs 7.5%

- Per-share earnings: 162.90 to 494.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 933B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 504B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 14.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 332.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 162.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 494.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.12

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 176B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 764B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 162.90

- FY2018: JPY 227.20

- FY2019: JPY 281.70

- FY2020: JPY 244.55

- FY2021: JPY 112.53

- FY2022: JPY 352.65

- FY2023: JPY 481.94

- FY2024: JPY 450.97

- FY2025: JPY 513.74

- FY2026: JPY 494.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.16×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.9%

- FY2018: -1.8%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: 0.9%

- FY2021: -2.5%

- FY2022: 0.6%

- FY2023: -2.3%

- FY2024: -0.4%

- FY2025: 4.1%

- FY2026: 2.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 25% since Feb 2026 · sales +9.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.973Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf; observed 2026-06-09.

- FY2017: JPY 1.56T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.82T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.86T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.75T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.60T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.10T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.48T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.41T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.51T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.76T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 13.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf; observed 2026-06-09.

- FY2017: 12.9% 

- FY2018: 12.8% 

- FY2019: 13.0% 

- FY2020: 12.6% 

- FY2021: 11.7% 

- FY2022: 12.9% 

- FY2023: 13.6% 

- FY2024: 13.5% 

- FY2025: 13.8% 

- FY2026: 13.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are JPY 2.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: revenue 2757350000000; grossProfit 367489000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13.3% to 13.8% during 2024–26; it earns 6.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 13.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 13.8%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 13.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.033757789799897825],[2018,0.0647980954823226],[2019,0.07663351605468752],[2020,0.06822938456104018],[2021,0.03298026951853503],[2022,0.06563996726168811],[2023,0.09339794458961508],[2024,0.08174609755215145],[2025,0.07527203584425972],[2026,0.0658249213023131]]; median 0.06702715293167663. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 13% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf (filed 2026-06-09); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.11739267450241343],[2022,0.12915327463689194],[2023,0.13612450803277631]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 52.4% of cash earnings; earns 25.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XEB.F.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 31830000000; owner earnings 30804000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2018: growth capex 8833000000; upkeep 23067000000; owner earnings 56842000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15539565814010767.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2019: growth capex 3947029951.6408653; upkeep 33997970048.359135; owner earnings 57718029951.64087. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06838469634095082.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 31568000000; owner earnings 49612000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 30663000000; owner earnings 13953000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 27070000000; owner earnings 74456000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 38263000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 95962000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 31215000000; cash acquisitions 11544000000; owner earnings 93815000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12305068485849811.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); FY2025: growth capex 2771000000; upkeep 44133000000; cash acquisitions 36324000000; owner earnings 93803000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.41677771499845423.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 45735000000; cash acquisitions 47011000000; owner earnings 89693000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5241323180181285.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); Incremental return on capital 0.2589179789397633, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); Dividend observations: [[2017,10008000000],[2018,11258000000],[2019,16888000000],[2020,22517000000],[2021,16381000000],[2022,16408000000],[2023,29208000000],[2024,29504000000],[2025,31721000000],[2026,33182000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XEB.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-09); FY2026: cash repurchases 9978000000 JPY.

### What could break it

"④ 市場リスク" (2768 filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf (filed 2026-06-09); ④ 市場リスク

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05754968839827851. Price 5333; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 129.0640639544434 → FY2026 428.4636800146703. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,450.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,420.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,455.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,455.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,395.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,415.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,335.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,380.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,390.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,475.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,555.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,705.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,620.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,730.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,760.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,760.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,705.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,805.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,940.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,010.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,025.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,935.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,050.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,010.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,910.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,090.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,045.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,950.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,915.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,745.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,730.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,620.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,675.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,720.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,760.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,735.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,560.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,270.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,260.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,255.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,175.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,105.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,215.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,190.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,145.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,145.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,150.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,210.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,400.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,560.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,690.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,675.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,840.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,875.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,606.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,728.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,788.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,017.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,987.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,039.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,921.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,017.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,350.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,124.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,194.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,438.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,513.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,569.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,614.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,763.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,852.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,795.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,177.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,375.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,132.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,278.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,106.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,293.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,185.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,504.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,799.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,985.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,059.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,104.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,909.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,601.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,475.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,365.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,157.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,050.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,242.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,202.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,285.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 3,282.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,371.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,568.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,545.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,606.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,908.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,916.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,096.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,564.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,867.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,628.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,080.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 6,125.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,860.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,391.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,171.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,381.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,604.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,672.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,375.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 2,620.27 per share, central JPY 2,833.35 per share, high JPY 3,117.00 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 2,601.76 per share, central JPY 2,823.38 per share, high JPY 3,118.42 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 3,135.54 per share, central JPY 3,436.16 per share, high JPY 3,836.36 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 3,128.81 per share, central JPY 3,413.37 per share, high JPY 3,792.16 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 4,041.81 per share, central JPY 4,463.48 per share, high JPY 5,024.80 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 4,973.68 per share, central JPY 6,170.40 per share, high JPY 7,068.57 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 5,301.88 per share, central JPY 6,543.14 per share, high JPY 7,530.90 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 6,019.44 per share, central JPY 7,565.26 per share, high JPY 8,731.71 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 7,311.76 per share, central JPY 9,649.32 per share, high JPY 11,154.64 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9EI.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations