# Kikkoman (2801.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2801.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:38.274Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,812.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 753.64 per share, central JPY 951.14 per share, high JPY 1,094.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 951.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:38.274Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 34.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 12.4%

- FY2018: 10.4%

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: 9.8%

- FY2021: 11.5%

- FY2022: 12.6%

- FY2023: 12.4%

- FY2024: 13.0%

- FY2025: 11.9%

- FY2026: 11.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.78×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 205B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 262B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 26.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.87×

- FY2023: 0.86×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 0.86×

- FY2026: 0.50×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.4% vs 11.9%

- Per-share earnings: 24.66 to 64.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: JPY 698B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 228B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 12.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 40.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 24.66

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 64.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 3.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 394B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 24.66

- FY2018: JPY 24.74

- FY2019: JPY 27.08

- FY2020: JPY 27.95

- FY2021: JPY 32.46

- FY2022: JPY 40.59

- FY2023: JPY 45.67

- FY2024: JPY 59.19

- FY2025: JPY 64.99

- FY2026: JPY 65.99

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.47×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: -4.0%

- FY2019: -2.8%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -5.9%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -2.7%

- FY2024: -3.6%

- FY2025: -1.8%

- FY2026: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.1% a year for ten years · sales +5.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.978Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5V.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: JPY 402B 

- FY2018: JPY 431B 

- FY2019: JPY 454B 

- FY2020: JPY 440B 

- FY2021: JPY 439B 

- FY2022: JPY 516B 

- FY2023: JPY 619B 

- FY2024: JPY 661B 

- FY2025: JPY 709B 

- FY2026: JPY 746B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 33.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5V.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: 39.7% 

- FY2018: 39.5% 

- FY2019: 38.8% 

- FY2020: 34.6% 

- FY2021: 35.1% 

- FY2022: 34.6% 

- FY2023: 33.0% 

- FY2024: 34.6% 

- FY2025: 33.7% 

- FY2026: 33.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 745.5 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5V.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: revenue 745539000000; grossProfit 252613000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.7% to 34.6% during 2024–26; it earns 11.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5V.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 33.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.12372367282963896],[2018,0.10438340948673343],[2019,0.09935050889193438],[2020,0.09812081593395885],[2021,0.1152122967733248],[2022,0.1261600343751331],[2023,0.12425653280608413],[2024,0.12978880148710611],[2025,0.11943021722987288],[2026,0.1106764025796766]]; median 0.11732125700159884. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 32.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 26.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 11693000000; owner earnings 24456000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2018: growth capex 3998000000; upkeep 13160000000; owner earnings 23846000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16765914618803993.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2019: growth capex 5914567724.476578; upkeep 21637432275.523422; owner earnings 17561567724.476578. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.33679041742002913.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 26032000000; owner earnings 14003000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 17071000000; owner earnings 27879000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 19564000000; owner earnings 33772000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2023: growth capex 4304000000; upkeep 22240000000; owner earnings 37558000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11459609137866766.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: growth capex 7043000000; upkeep 24020000000; owner earnings 50030000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1407755346791925.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: growth capex 12744830608.907715; upkeep 27924169391.092285; owner earnings 52883830608.907715. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24099673685062037.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5V.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: growth capex 9937663628.683716; upkeep 49674336371.316284; owner earnings 30516663628.683716. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.325647120196421.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Incremental return on capital 0.26566004906884083, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Dividend observations: [[2017,9273000000],[2018,7727000000],[2019,7105000000],[2020,8065000000],[2021,8065000000],[2022,8825000000],[2023,13220000000],[2024,15676000000],[2025,22852000000],[2026,23501000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17623600517813143. Price 1812.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 20.534 → FY2026 32.68351266504647. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 700.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 748.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 711.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 677.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 665.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 685.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 694.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 718.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 676.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 689.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 692.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 776.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 880.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 912.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 902.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 852.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 856.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 949.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,028.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,118.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,058.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,114.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,352.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,242.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,324.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,182.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,154.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,108.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,086.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,032.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 901.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 938.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 995.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 956.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,032.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,046.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,100.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,074.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,074.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,002.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 921.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 996.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,084.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,038.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 983.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,152.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,164.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,036.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,298.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,434.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,476.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,406.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,318.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,342.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,422.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,466.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,336.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,652.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,818.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,864.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,732.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,934.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,724.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,708.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,626.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,464.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,372.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,440.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,574.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,712.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,640.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,616.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,544.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,388.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,368.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,274.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,348.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,606.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,646.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,638.40 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,636.80 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,685.20 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,568.80 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,704.20 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,813.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,726.80 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,828.20 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,960.20 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,966.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,887.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,819.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,863.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,890.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,643.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,628.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,641.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,762.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,453.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,441.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,395.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,322.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,338.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,324.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,271.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,255.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,226.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,430.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,422.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,390.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,500.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,435.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,426.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,393.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,668.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,647.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,835.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,649.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,766.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 266.93 per share, central JPY 300.68 per share, high JPY 345.60 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 325.93 per share, central JPY 364.13 per share, high JPY 414.99 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 398.04 per share, central JPY 443.01 per share, high JPY 502.88 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 624.04 per share, central JPY 852.53 per share, high JPY 985.59 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 697.23 per share, central JPY 931.63 per share, high JPY 1,074.07 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 744.11 per share, central JPY 997.41 per share, high JPY 1,153.42 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 753.64 per share, central JPY 951.14 per share, high JPY 1,094.86 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5V.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations