# Asahi Kasei (3407.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/3407.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:51.631Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,567.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,202.44 per share, central JPY 1,423.91 per share, high JPY 1,621.79 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,423.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:51.631Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.2% at the stated quote. About 9.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.5%

- FY2018: 13.3%

- FY2019: 11.5%

- FY2020: 8.1%

- FY2021: 7.2%

- FY2022: 8.7%

- FY2023: 5.0%

- FY2024: 6.9%

- FY2025: 6.7%

- FY2026: 7.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.82×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 334B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 408B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 7.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 34.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 0.77×

- FY2025: 0.92×

- FY2026: 0.71×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.5% vs 6.9%

- Per-share earnings: 82.34 to 97.94 (three-year endpoint medians)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: JPY 540B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 444B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 15.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 82.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 97.94

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 637B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.02T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 82.34

- FY2018: JPY 121.93

- FY2019: JPY 105.66

- FY2020: JPY 74.85

- FY2021: JPY 57.49

- FY2022: JPY 116.68

- FY2023: JPY -66.30

- FY2024: JPY 31.60

- FY2025: JPY 97.94

- FY2026: JPY 116.97

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.91×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.44×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.4%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -0.7%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: -5.3%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -4.1%

- FY2026: -3.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.2% a year for ten years · sales +1.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.031Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 1.88T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.04T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.17T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.15T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.11T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.46T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.73T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.78T 

- FY2025: JPY 3.04T 

- FY2026: JPY 3.07T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 32.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 31.2% 

- FY2018: 31.8% 

- FY2019: 31.7% 

- FY2020: 31.4% 

- FY2021: 32.3% 

- FY2022: 31.3% 

- FY2023: 28.4% 

- FY2024: 29.3% 

- FY2025: 31.5% 

- FY2026: 32.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 3.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 3074505000000; grossProfit 1008592000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.3% to 32.8% during 2024–26; it earns 7.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.5%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 32.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.10514876092310235],[2018,0.13270339983689128],[2019,0.11549596951754716],[2020,0.08069063106358965],[2021,0.07192082186981566],[2022,0.08681614350967619],[2023,0.05044759298583156],[2024,0.06927758285982052],[2025,0.06731680371707809],[2026,0.07532838931269083]]; median 0.07800951018814023. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 10.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 91793000000; owner earnings 113629000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 857000000; upkeep 95415000000; owner earnings 169859000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.005045361152485297.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 36652043244.961914; upkeep 88201956755.03809; owner earnings 143629043244.9619. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.25518545843441426.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 154450000000; owner earnings 44221000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 150292000000; owner earnings 36619000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 49970000000; upkeep 119738000000; owner earnings 159582000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3131305535712048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 18658249148.772644; upkeep 153295750851.22736; owner earnings 33829249148.772644. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5515419235797488.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 64461000000; upkeep 153478000000; owner earnings 124093000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5194571813075677.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 11670884333.961945; upkeep 199379115666.03806; owner earnings 112027884333.96194. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10417838740192868.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.07030070819083419, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,27935000000],[2018,39106000000],[2019,51674000000],[2020,48723000000],[2021,45800000000],[2022,47187000000],[2023,48575000000],[2024,49962000000],[2025,49962000000],[2026,54386000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 2344000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04694811381970798. Price 1567; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 63.46057501580313 → FY2026 82.52190984831527. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,017.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,019.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,055.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,094.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,080.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,062.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,064.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,207.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,264.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,317.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,385.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,369.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,405.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,453.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,424.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,383.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,399.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,507.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,495.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,408.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,490.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,723.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,357.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,243.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,130.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,192.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,214.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,142.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,143.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,119.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,148.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,113.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 961.20 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,064.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,211.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,229.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,234.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,138.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 900.70 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 764.80 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 765.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 850.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 875.60 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 751.90 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 890.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 914.70 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 900.40 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 957.10 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,054.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,164.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,146.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,274.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,151.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,205.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,220.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,187.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,136.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,196.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,196.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,071.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,081.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,121.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,077.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,062.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,071.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,043.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,036.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,065.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,023.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 955.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 954.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,019.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 941.40 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 982.40 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 949.80 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 926.30 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 957.70 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 948.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 972.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 968.40 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 941.80 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 939.90 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 923.40 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,026.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,039.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,122.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,041.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,115.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,100.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,025.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,030.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,094.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,032.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,082.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,059.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,068.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,092.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,055.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,021.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,047.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 994.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,015.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,027.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,055.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,209.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,164.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,182.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,304.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,389.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,499.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,844.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,509.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,535.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,787.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,722.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,644.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,657.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,601.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,140.87 per share, central JPY 1,281.79 per share, high JPY 1,469.39 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,130.64 per share, central JPY 1,268.68 per share, high JPY 1,452.44 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,398.09 per share, central JPY 1,571.43 per share, high JPY 1,802.19 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 649.78 per share, central JPY 811.12 per share, high JPY 925.05 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 629.52 per share, central JPY 747.01 per share, high JPY 838.47 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 714.67 per share, central JPY 853.64 per share, high JPY 957.21 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,202.44 per share, central JPY 1,423.91 per share, high JPY 1,621.79 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGRD.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations