# Nissan Chemical (4021.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4021.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:07.993Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 8,609.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,729.27 per share, central JPY 6,224.99 per share, high JPY 7,250.23 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,224.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:07.993Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.0% at the stated quote. About 8.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.23×

- FY2026: 0.23×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 15.3%

- FY2018: 15.9%

- FY2019: 16.4%

- FY2020: 16.4%

- FY2021: 16.6%

- FY2022: 19.0%

- FY2023: 17.7%

- FY2024: 14.5%

- FY2025: 16.7%

- FY2026: 18.9%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 199B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 211B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 59.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.94×

- FY2023: 0.92×

- FY2024: 0.83×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.9% vs 16.7%

- Per-share earnings: 156.97 to 313.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Market cap gain: JPY 313B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 83B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 9.0%

- Per-share value change: JPY 156.29

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 156.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 313.26

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.61

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 14B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 355B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 156.97

- FY2018: JPY 180.30

- FY2019: JPY 197.67

- FY2020: JPY 210.09

- FY2021: JPY 231.73

- FY2022: JPY 271.88

- FY2023: JPY 291.36

- FY2024: JPY 272.82

- FY2025: JPY 313.26

- FY2026: JPY 368.26

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.29×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.7%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: -2.4%

- FY2022: -1.1%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: 1.3%

- FY2025: -4.9%

- FY2026: -4.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9% a year for ten years · sales +11.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.084Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +11.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 180B 

- FY2018: JPY 193B 

- FY2019: JPY 205B 

- FY2020: JPY 207B 

- FY2021: JPY 209B 

- FY2022: JPY 208B 

- FY2023: JPY 228B 

- FY2024: JPY 227B 

- FY2025: JPY 251B 

- FY2026: JPY 280B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 46.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 41.3% 

- FY2018: 41.3% 

- FY2019: 41.5% 

- FY2020: 40.8% 

- FY2021: 42.0% 

- FY2022: 48.6% 

- FY2023: 46.8% 

- FY2024: 46.2% 

- FY2025: 46.4% 

- FY2026: 46.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 279.6 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 279586000000; grossProfit 130939000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.2% to 46.8% during 2024–26; it earns 16.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 46.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.15261834516433748],[2018,0.1593194621243839],[2019,0.1639877232398821],[2020,0.1635338179357169],[2021,0.1655734889024372],[2022,0.18978077688762504],[2023,0.17701903346919623],[2024,0.14470391244924266],[2025,0.16664105392885165],[2026,0.1887811534233467]]; median 0.16478060607115963. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 8.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 25.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 944753436.5605297; upkeep 12540246563.43947; owner earnings 20374753436.56053. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04636882794690711.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 3660277870.3184013; upkeep 10692722129.681599; owner earnings 26959277870.3184. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13577061996709824.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 9939000000; owner earnings 30347000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 9189000000; owner earnings 32106000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 8942000000; owner earnings 34874000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 12386000000; owner earnings 36509000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 5199198756.763401; upkeep 14257801243.236599; owner earnings 37707198756.7634. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13788345271420727.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 20178000000; owner earnings 31555000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 3287000000; upkeep 14319000000; owner earnings 43043000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07636549497014614.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 4284000000; upkeep 15405000000; owner earnings 49707000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08618504435994931.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.2592022826946364, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,7680000000],[2018,9063000000],[2019,11320000000],[2020,12360000000],[2021,13629000000],[2022,15468000000],[2023,20084000000],[2024,22973000000],[2025,22681000000],[2026,23636000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 10500000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11589226748274306. Price 8609; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 144.84539597315438 → FY2026 368.25999999999993. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,805.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,905.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,035.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,620.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,240.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,455.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,885.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,710.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,675.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,685.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,960.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,215.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,500.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,495.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,445.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 4,260.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 4,420.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,875.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 5,120.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 5,170.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,995.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 5,300.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 6,000.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 5,340.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 6,160.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 5,760.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 5,780.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 5,620.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 5,070.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 4,930.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 4,610.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 4,855.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 4,785.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 4,495.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,495.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 4,480.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,335.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,595.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,585.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 4,565.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,940.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 4,140.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 4,755.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 5,520.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 5,530.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 5,620.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 5,600.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 5,520.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 6,240.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 6,460.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 5,960.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 5,790.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 5,910.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 5,620.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 5,670.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 5,440.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 5,340.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 6,170.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 6,540.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 6,330.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 6,540.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 6,680.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 6,180.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 6,500.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 7,230.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 6,910.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 7,280.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 6,250.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 6,760.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 7,070.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 6,450.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 6,700.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 6,740.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 5,780.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 6,100.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 5,980.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 5,990.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 6,020.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 6,060.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 6,169.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 6,381.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 6,248.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 6,359.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 6,095.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 5,393.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 5,506.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 5,922.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 6,253.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 5,737.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 5,402.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,359.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 5,097.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,874.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,990.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 5,126.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 5,204.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 5,213.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,949.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,685.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,319.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,444.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,165.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,348.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,401.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,942.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 5,235.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 5,370.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 5,217.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,279.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,363.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,323.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,107.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,995.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,775.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 7,509.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 8,473.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 7,503.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 8,219.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 8,336.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 8,997.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,332.12 per share, central JPY 2,628.73 per share, high JPY 3,023.58 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,539.11 per share, central JPY 2,862.28 per share, high JPY 3,292.49 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,687.88 per share, central JPY 3,029.00 per share, high JPY 3,483.10 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,593.66 per share, central JPY 4,753.63 per share, high JPY 5,536.77 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,497.08 per share, central JPY 4,547.45 per share, high JPY 5,298.17 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,036.55 per share, central JPY 5,318.97 per share, high JPY 6,199.52 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,729.27 per share, central JPY 6,224.99 per share, high JPY 7,250.23 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIML.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations