# Tokuyama (4043.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4043.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:08.442Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,918.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 3,170.14 per share, central JPY 3,530.18 per share, high JPY 4,009.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,530.18 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:08.442Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.2% at the stated quote. About 9.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.7%

- FY2018: 16.1%

- FY2019: 15.3%

- FY2020: 12.7%

- FY2021: 11.9%

- FY2022: 9.8%

- FY2023: 3.1%

- FY2024: 5.6%

- FY2025: 7.5%

- FY2026: 7.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.67×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 67B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 101B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 30.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.57×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.90×

- FY2026: 0.77×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.1% vs 7.1%

- Per-share earnings: 259.81 to 308.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: JPY 79B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 156B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 48.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 259.81

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 308.64

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 62B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 251B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 738.92

- FY2018: JPY 259.81

- FY2019: JPY 493.26

- FY2020: JPY 287.05

- FY2021: JPY 351.11

- FY2022: JPY 389.09

- FY2023: JPY 130.15

- FY2024: JPY 246.72

- FY2025: JPY 325.08

- FY2026: JPY 308.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.22×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: -11.7%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: 0.5%

- FY2023: 4.4%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: -6.1%

- FY2026: -5.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 23% since May 2026 · sales +1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.098Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDQ3.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: JPY 299B 

- FY2018: JPY 308B 

- FY2019: JPY 325B 

- FY2020: JPY 316B 

- FY2021: JPY 302B 

- FY2022: JPY 294B 

- FY2023: JPY 352B 

- FY2024: JPY 342B 

- FY2025: JPY 343B 

- FY2026: JPY 349B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 35.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDQ3.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: 32.3% 

- FY2018: 32.6% 

- FY2019: 30.2% 

- FY2020: 31.2% 

- FY2021: 31.5% 

- FY2022: 32.5% 

- FY2023: 25.8% 

- FY2024: 29.1% 

- FY2025: 31.5% 

- FY2026: 35.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 349.5 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDQ3.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: revenue 349476000000; grossProfit 124946000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.1% to 35.8% during 2024–26; it earns 10.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.5%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDQ3.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17696550520567825],[2018,0.1614798679003879],[2019,0.15259144360650728],[2020,0.12656730021116488],[2021,0.11859926594190257],[2022,0.09794522188250884],[2023,0.030706367722461676],[2024,0.056397778020740315],[2025,0.0750970296415046],[2026,0.07092089982491614]]; median 0.1082722439122057. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 18.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 5.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 16693000000; owner earnings 49687000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2018: growth capex 1541000000; upkeep 13985000000; owner earnings 19698000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0782312925170068.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2019: growth capex 1672000000; upkeep 15093000000; owner earnings 34279000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04877621867615741.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 19706000000; owner earnings 16353000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 23800000000; owner earnings 17737000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 31887000000; owner earnings 15829000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2023: growth capex 11143000000; upkeep 20773000000; owner earnings 9364000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.189982913284921.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 31591000000; owner earnings 3850000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: growth capex 503041754.4740143; upkeep 22094958245.525986; owner earnings 20981041754.474014. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.023976014173211643.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDQ3.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: growth capex 3146182467.6129303; upkeep 25964817532.38707; owner earnings 17188182467.61293. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18304334815744294.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Incremental return on capital 0.0593889058524173, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,1454000000],[2019,3122000000],[2020,4164000000],[2021,4861000000],[2022,5034000000],[2023,5036000000],[2024,5038000000],[2025,6839000000],[2026,7921000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.021872325622655606. Price 3918; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,245.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,530.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,690.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,690.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,745.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,450.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,705.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,515.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,430.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,663.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,205.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,435.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 3,670.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 3,460.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,220.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,385.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,265.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,885.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,555.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,520.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,410.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,090.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,534.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,110.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,421.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,532.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,792.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,612.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,750.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,420.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,912.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,527.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,241.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,477.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,917.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,954.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,863.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,837.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,434.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,092.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,300.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,576.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,532.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,450.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,482.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,524.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,314.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,217.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,317.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,612.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,656.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,793.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,470.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,294.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,262.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,310.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,200.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,148.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,949.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,784.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,828.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,815.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,769.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,718.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,733.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,674.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,726.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,841.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,741.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,735.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,913.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,796.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,893.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,170.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,105.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,207.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,157.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,368.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,442.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,326.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,350.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,271.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,401.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,391.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,378.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,428.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,730.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,260.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,042.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,950.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,968.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,800.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,883.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,708.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,660.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,637.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,587.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,678.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,789.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,906.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,821.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,016.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,264.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,395.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,675.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,835.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,106.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,123.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,038.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,476.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,738.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,998.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,107.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 4,889.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,792.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 4,032.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,075.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,180.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 4,135.71 per share, central JPY 4,552.75 per share, high JPY 5,107.92 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 3,690.94 per share, central JPY 4,051.86 per share, high JPY 4,532.31 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,954.74 per share, central JPY 4,676.93 per share, high JPY 5,313.56 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,375.52 per share, central JPY 3,893.08 per share, high JPY 4,435.80 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,835.71 per share, central JPY 4,323.13 per share, high JPY 4,872.31 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 3,170.14 per share, central JPY 3,530.18 per share, high JPY 4,009.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDQ3.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations