# Kyowa Kirin (4151.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4151.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:10.554Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,302.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,780.77 per share, central JPY 1,971.47 per share, high JPY 2,225.33 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,971.47 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:10.554Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.5 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.7%

- FY2018: 10.0%

- FY2019: 7.3%

- FY2020: 17.0%

- FY2021: 19.8%

- FY2022: 18.7%

- FY2023: 27.8%

- FY2024: 14.2%

- FY2025: 13.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 166B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 314B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 46.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.93×

- FY2022: 0.93×

- FY2023: 0.93×

- FY2024: -0.21×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 55.65 to 128.07 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 439B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.0%

- Per-share value change: JPY 72.42

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 55.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 128.07

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 556B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 55.65

- FY2017: JPY 78.38

- FY2018: JPY 99.40

- FY2019: JPY 124.57

- FY2020: JPY 87.56

- FY2021: JPY 97.43

- FY2022: JPY 99.68

- FY2023: JPY 151.03

- FY2024: JPY 113.06

- FY2025: JPY 128.07

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.44×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.3%

- FY2017: -3.1%

- FY2018: -0.2%

- FY2019: 1.7%

- FY2020: 0.9%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: 0.5%

- FY2023: -3.3%

- FY2024: -0.8%

- FY2025: -2.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 38% since Oct 2021 · sales +0.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.122Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XPTY.pdf; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: JPY 348B 

- FY2017: JPY 353B 

- FY2018: JPY 272B 

- FY2019: JPY 306B 

- FY2020: JPY 318B 

- FY2021: JPY 352B 

- FY2022: JPY 398B 

- FY2023: JPY 442B 

- FY2024: JPY 496B 

- FY2025: JPY 497B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XPTY.pdf; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: 59.9% 

- FY2018: 73.0% 

- FY2019: 74.0% 

- FY2020: 74.7% 

- FY2021: 75.1% 

- FY2022: 78.2% 

- FY2023: 74.9% 

- FY2024: 73.2% 

- FY2025: 74.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 496.8 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XPTY.pdf (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 496826000000; grossProfit 368892000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 73.2% to 74.9% during 2023–25; it earns 14.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 74.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 73.2%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XPTY.pdf (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.047338290133971735],[2018,0.10022059981517137],[2019,0.07265266740309238],[2020,0.16953895310088202],[2021,0.1977966045834508],[2022,0.18704464109080585],[2023,0.27781095887633805],[2024,0.14186823676936974],[2025,0.1372998851176237]]; median 0.14186823676936974. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 7.5% of cash earnings; earns 46.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 29241000000; owner earnings 24238000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 13740000000; owner earnings 56917000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 2460000000; upkeep 18797000000; owner earnings 64040000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.038413491567770144.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2020: growth capex 4058698836.3526955; upkeep 31168301163.647305; owner earnings 33149698836.352695. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12243546634884768.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2021: growth capex 268000000; upkeep 19498000000; owner earnings 48872000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0054837125552463575.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2022: growth capex 10190000000; upkeep 18476000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 49806000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2045938240372646.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 10018937716.696636; upkeep 22833062283.303364; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 75810937716.69664. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1321568894733518.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XPTY.pdf (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 296676180.92633057; upkeep 83222323819.07367; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3978676180.9263306. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07456655616976028.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Incremental return on capital 0.4635741067019825, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,13680000000],[2018,16148000000],[2019,21688000000],[2020,23631000000],[2021,24176000000],[2022,25258000000],[2023,29027000000],[2024,30895000000],[2025,30882000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4151.T (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 9000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 18.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.034033048028838775. Price 2302; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 59.93610532679519 → FY2025 7.6006721135327435. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,632.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,616.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,521.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,681.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,912.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,894.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,087.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,002.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,931.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,914.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,088.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,129.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,179.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,135.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,337.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,374.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,228.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,233.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,117.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,970.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,129.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,195.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,327.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,077.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,080.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,126.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,410.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,156.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,050.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,939.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,803.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,945.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,098.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,996.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,323.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,573.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,586.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,570.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,422.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,518.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,922.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,829.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,600.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,742.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,986.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,590.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,835.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,814.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,100.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,968.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,320.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,940.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 3,555.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 3,595.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 4,025.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 3,740.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 3,170.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 3,135.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,855.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,954.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,848.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,733.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,777.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,050.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,130.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 3,135.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,315.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,505.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 3,175.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,020.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,890.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,915.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,886.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,020.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,680.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,664.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,716.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,670.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,604.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,358.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,437.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,370.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,333.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,971.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,690.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,649.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,655.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,747.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,179.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,325.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,527.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,523.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,486.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,375.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,320.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,119.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,173.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,225.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,353.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,465.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,597.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,545.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,298.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,382.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,630.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,527.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,504.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,885.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,578.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,362.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,505.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,587.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,554.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,628.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,280.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,253.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 1,803.86 per share, central JPY 2,048.08 per share, high JPY 2,284.25 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,081.29 per share, central JPY 2,397.09 per share, high JPY 2,673.89 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,884.86 per share, central JPY 2,303.13 per share, high JPY 2,617.43 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,695.95 per share, central JPY 1,874.78 per share, high JPY 2,112.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:10.554Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XPTY.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations