# Mitsui Chemicals (4183.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4183.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:11.226Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,059.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 580.88 per share, central JPY 620.64 per share, high JPY 673.58 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 620.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:11.226Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.3% at the stated quote. About 4.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.1%

- FY2018: 9.8%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 4.9%

- FY2021: 7.3%

- FY2022: 10.5%

- FY2023: 7.5%

- FY2024: 3.9%

- FY2025: 3.7%

- FY2026: 3.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.57×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 176B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 310B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -9.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 31.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.92×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: -0.26×

- FY2025: 0.33×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.8% vs 3.7%

- Per-share earnings: 358.38 to 91.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 14.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 422B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 390B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 14.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -17.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY -266.76

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 358.38

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 91.62

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 29B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 614B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 324.05

- FY2018: JPY 358.38

- FY2019: JPY 385.60

- FY2020: JPY 174.52

- FY2021: JPY 298.00

- FY2022: JPY 565.45

- FY2023: JPY 431.17

- FY2024: JPY 262.99

- FY2025: JPY 85.28

- FY2026: JPY 91.62

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.3%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -0.8%

- FY2019: -2.1%

- FY2020: -7.1%

- FY2021: -7.5%

- FY2022: 0.9%

- FY2023: -0.9%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -7.8%

- FY2026: -8.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.5% a year for ten years · sales -7.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.127Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -7.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGUI.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 1.21T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.33T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.48T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.35T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.21T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.61T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.88T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.75T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.81T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.67T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGUI.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 24.2% 

- FY2018: 23.3% 

- FY2019: 21.3% 

- FY2020: 22.1% 

- FY2021: 24.2% 

- FY2022: 23.5% 

- FY2023: 20.3% 

- FY2024: 21.2% 

- FY2025: 21.5% 

- FY2026: 22.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.7 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGUI.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 1668754000000; grossProfit 380510000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.2% to 22.8% during 2024–26; it earns 7.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.5%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGUI.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 22.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11058557513515363],[2018,0.09794397462694004],[2019,0.08050757806965046],[2020,0.048941828010044236],[2021,0.07332331553473996],[2022,0.10479435000923953],[2023,0.07514302034246989],[2024,0.039157583916427395],[2025,0.03651310411294463],[2026,0.03612405033317997]]; median 0.07423316793860493. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 41498000000; owner earnings 65989925829.64377. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 7837000000; upkeep 44835000000; owner earnings 71585000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10947824264859957.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 6902000000; upkeep 48853000000; owner earnings 75994479964.86484. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09082238608897725.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 99771000000; owner earnings 9225996621.225273. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 76581000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 50602264485.58838. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 31994000000; upkeep 84222000000; cash acquisitions 10694000000; owner earnings 101048922910.81476. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4224488373584764.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 45781000000; upkeep 92080000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 73909816148.57219. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6194170461467777.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 19963452473.89804; upkeep 118442547526.10196; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 10734313557.986832. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.8597791434035666.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGUI.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 137759000000; owner earnings 3003952717.970581. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,9005000000],[2018,18007000000],[2019,18878000000],[2020,19509000000],[2021,19349000000],[2022,20527000000],[2023,24161000000],[2024,24714000000],[2025,27572000000],[2026,28171000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3146533831127557. Price 2059; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,322.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,312.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,330.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,427.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,375.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,425.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,375.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,487.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,575.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,645.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,740.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,712.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,642.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,677.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,570.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,575.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,475.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,500.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,437.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,420.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,267.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,440.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,242.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,362.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,356.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,335.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,359.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,193.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,333.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,254.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,135.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,208.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,301.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,311.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,340.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,227.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,169.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,025.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,063.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,120.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,123.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,003.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,246.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,268.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,333.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,466.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,512.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,498.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,640.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,747.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,720.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,835.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,917.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,737.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,882.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,690.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,522.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,545.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,520.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,469.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,545.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,487.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,577.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,445.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,394.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,572.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,409.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,377.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,550.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,487.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,522.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,642.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,705.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,707.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,762.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,114.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,040.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,978.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,938.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,881.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,164.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,091.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,187.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,074.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,184.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,252.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,375.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,188.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,945.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,902.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,760.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,734.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,735.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,707.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,676.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,671.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,565.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,642.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,667.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,696.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,819.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,851.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,823.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,968.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,002.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,256.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,380.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,858.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,895.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,181.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,133.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,118.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,187.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,146.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,121.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 4,291.95 per share, central JPY 4,773.83 per share, high JPY 5,415.31 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 5,354.16 per share, central JPY 5,994.46 per share, high JPY 6,846.84 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 5,171.59 per share, central JPY 5,786.56 per share, high JPY 6,605.20 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,813.07 per share, central JPY 5,358.49 per share, high JPY 6,084.55 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,325.69 per share, central JPY 2,609.27 per share, high JPY 2,986.77 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 580.88 per share, central JPY 620.64 per share, high JPY 673.58 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGUI.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations