# Ube (4208.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4208.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:11.939Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,305.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.7%

- FY2018: 8.0%

- FY2019: 7.1%

- FY2020: 5.3%

- FY2021: 5.3%

- FY2022: 5.8%

- FY2023: 2.3%

- FY2024: 3.2%

- FY2025: 2.3%

- FY2026: 2.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.15×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY -9.7B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 66B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -9.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 37.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.19×

- FY2024: 0.85×

- FY2025: 5.74×

- FY2026: -0.96×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.1% vs 2.3%

- Per-share earnings: 228.50 to 245.76 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY -30B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 88B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 0.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 17.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 228.50

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 245.76

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 54B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 200B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 228.50

- FY2018: JPY 301.65

- FY2019: JPY 312.36

- FY2020: JPY 227.33

- FY2021: JPY 226.79

- FY2022: JPY 249.31

- FY2023: JPY -72.54

- FY2024: JPY 298.59

- FY2025: JPY -49.60

- FY2026: JPY 245.76

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.51×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -5.6%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -6.3%

- FY2021: -5.6%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -3.4%

- FY2024: -3.0%

- FY2025: -4.7%

- FY2026: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 43% since Oct 2023 · sales -5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.136Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD42.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY 617B 

- FY2018: JPY 696B 

- FY2019: JPY 730B 

- FY2020: JPY 668B 

- FY2021: JPY 614B 

- FY2022: JPY 655B 

- FY2023: JPY 495B 

- FY2024: JPY 468B 

- FY2025: JPY 487B 

- FY2026: JPY 462B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD42.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: 18.8% 

- FY2018: 19.5% 

- FY2019: 17.8% 

- FY2020: 17.7% 

- FY2021: 17.0% 

- FY2022: 19.5% 

- FY2023: 16.7% 

- FY2024: 18.5% 

- FY2025: 18.7% 

- FY2026: 22.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 462.3 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD42.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 462343000000; grossProfit 103457000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.5% to 22.4% during 2024–26; it earns 5.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD42.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 22.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.05660163240457691],[2018,0.0801211319409259],[2019,0.07069009403464563],[2020,0.05286998404507755],[2021,0.05256556997783893],[2022,0.0583005410226665],[2023,0.023406573120066092],[2024,0.03182085887350376],[2025,0.02345650324285806],[2026,0.021010834535439425]]; median 0.05271777701145824. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 41867000000; owner earnings 16808000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 33769000000; owner earnings 33264000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2019: growth capex 6343000000; upkeep 36420000000; owner earnings 32499000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19517523616111265.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 42651000000; owner earnings 17152000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 38208000000; owner earnings 21110000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 36379000000; owner earnings 24627000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 30972000000; owner earnings 24581000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,5287000000],[2018,6347000000],[2019,7876000000],[2020,12625000000],[2021,9089000000],[2022,8923000000],[2023,9667000000],[2024,9191000000],[2025,10649000000],[2026,10656000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD42.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 6000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price is 0.7 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Closing price 3305 JPY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 4759.777801608579; price multiple 0.6943601440561085. FY2026 cash earnings/share -235.6504021447721. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,380.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,450.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,720.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,810.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,510.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,590.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,630.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,890.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,000.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,140.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,250.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,465.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,255.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 3,315.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 3,250.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,360.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,105.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,340.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,879.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,995.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,827.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,090.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,468.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,587.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,234.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,454.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,524.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,275.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,370.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,081.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,234.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,279.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,034.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,179.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,342.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,351.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,379.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,234.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,968.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,657.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,823.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,925.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,852.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,713.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,895.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,771.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,787.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,775.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,872.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,985.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,138.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,358.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,209.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,304.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,249.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,194.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,219.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,198.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,120.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,998.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,055.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,124.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,997.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,016.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,982.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,017.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,076.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,055.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,932.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,917.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,999.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,938.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,033.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,042.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,055.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,152.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,255.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,470.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,593.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,457.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,521.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,314.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,323.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,290.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,463.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,510.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,730.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,890.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,890.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,832.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,704.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,647.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,669.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,533.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,399.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,410.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,286.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,223.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,174.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,087.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,263.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,262.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,318.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,339.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,284.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,269.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,507.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,571.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,671.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,888.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,431.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,366.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,952.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,180.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,183.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,570.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,400.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,376.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,549.28 per share, central JPY 2,862.75 per share, high JPY 3,280.05 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,954.16 per share, central JPY 3,268.73 per share, high JPY 3,687.49 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 3,414.69 per share, central JPY 3,792.36 per share, high JPY 4,295.12 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,137.15 per share, central JPY 2,401.56 per share, high JPY 2,753.54 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,091.36 per share, central JPY 2,341.37 per share, high JPY 2,674.18 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,978.51 per share, central JPY 3,238.33 per share, high JPY 3,584.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD42.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations