# Shionogi & Co.,Ltd. (4507.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4507.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:20.139Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,895.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 3,577.54 per share, central JPY 4,550.96 per share, high JPY 5,190.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 4,550.96 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:20.139Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.3% at the stated quote. About 15.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.39×

- FY2020: 0.39×

- FY2021: 0.40×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: 0.35×

- FY2024: 0.37×

- FY2025: 0.36×

- FY2026: 0.33×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 83.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 83.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 23.9%

- FY2018: 18.5%

- FY2019: 23.8%

- FY2020: 18.4%

- FY2021: 16.4%

- FY2022: 13.9%

- FY2023: 16.0%

- FY2024: 14.4%

- FY2025: 13.3%

- FY2026: 8.9%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 781B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 837B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 17.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 7.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 55.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 79.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.92×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 0.85×

- FY2026: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.8% vs 13.3%

- Per-share earnings: 86.63 to 200.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.10T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 985B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 11.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY 113.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 86.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 200.36

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.21

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 85B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.40T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 86.63

- FY2018: JPY 114.24

- FY2019: JPY 146.16

- FY2020: JPY 131.90

- FY2021: JPY 121.68

- FY2022: JPY 126.25

- FY2023: JPY 207.10

- FY2024: JPY 186.17

- FY2025: JPY 200.36

- FY2026: JPY 241.11

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.3%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.04×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.2%

- FY2018: -2.4%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -1.1%

- FY2021: 0.3%

- FY2022: 1.1%

- FY2023: 0.5%

- FY2024: 0.5%

- FY2025: -1.6%

- FY2026: -0.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · sales +14%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.194Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +14%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF57.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: JPY 339B 

- FY2018: JPY 345B 

- FY2019: JPY 368B 

- FY2020: JPY 333B 

- FY2021: JPY 297B 

- FY2022: JPY 335B 

- FY2023: JPY 427B 

- FY2024: JPY 410B 

- FY2025: JPY 438B 

- FY2026: JPY 500B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 83.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF57.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: 77.0% 

- FY2018: 78.6% 

- FY2019: 84.9% 

- FY2020: 83.0% 

- FY2021: 82.3% 

- FY2022: 83.5% 

- FY2023: 85.4% 

- FY2024: 92.1% 

- FY2025: 85.4% 

- FY2026: 83.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 499.7 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF57.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: revenue 499677000000; grossProfit 417226000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 83.5% to 92.1% during 2024–26; it earns 16.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 92.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 85.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF57.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 83.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.23926910303888002],[2018,0.1853957192230898],[2019,0.23801814544166436],[2020,0.18360576264195755],[2021,0.16414976503340706],[2022,0.13926887777859773],[2023,0.15975398068965663],[2024,0.14403958682079426],[2025,0.13314952952612108],[2026,0.08852836480242608]]; median 0.16195187286153184. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 4.3% of cash earnings; earns 17.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2017: growth capex 7031087506.06403; upkeep 16227912493.93597; owner earnings 81013087506.06403. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08678952651369738.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2018: growth capex 1040000000; upkeep 15972000000; owner earnings 108866000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009553028493744604.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2019: growth capex 5174470709.071514; upkeep 20220529290.928486; cash acquisitions 937000000; owner earnings 128379470709.07152. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.04760473520662106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 11768000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 120996000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 32944000000; owner earnings 90045000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2022: growth capex 9467932907.756195; upkeep 22096067092.243805; owner earnings 104986932907.7562. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09018201261365476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2023: growth capex 20022000000; upkeep 17165000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 181807000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.11012777285803077.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 28267000000; cash acquisitions 27496000000; owner earnings 149006000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1845294820342805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: growth capex 8098700369.565956; upkeep 44004299630.434044; cash acquisitions 1325000000; owner earnings 144251700369.56595. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06532817530346531.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF57.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: growth capex 4336000000; upkeep 26968000000; cash acquisitions 4271000000; owner earnings 200999000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.042821108562729165.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Incremental return on capital 0.17902423259625408, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Dividend observations: [[2017,22112000000],[2018,24235000000],[2019,27639000000],[2020,31122000000],[2021,32529000000],[2022,33146000000],[2023,36142000000],[2024,43876000000],[2025,48698000000],[2026,56175000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4507.T (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: cash repurchases 5000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.044011572897914644. Price 2895; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 68.27666666666667 → FY2026 236.22102315764846. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,803.33 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,866.33 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,808.33 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,832.67 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,916.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,911.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,973.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,086.33 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,965.33 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,931.67 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,050.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,029.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,086.33 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,032.33 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,012.33 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,863.67 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,830.33 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,878.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,904.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,897.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,025.33 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,152.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,474.67 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,410.67 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,502.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,090.33 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,228.67 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,372.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,284.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,158.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,980.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,069.67 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,019.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,898.33 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,999.67 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,172.67 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,146.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,255.67 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,188.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,948.33 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,772.33 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,976.33 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,120.33 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,250.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,086.33 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,961.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,876.33 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,641.33 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,864.33 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,878.33 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,893.33 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,804.33 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,984.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,915.67 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,852.33 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,930.33 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,917.33 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,317.33 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,551.33 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,469.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,641.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,708.33 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,142.33 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,547.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,510.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,423.67 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,292.33 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,285.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,268.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,268.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,329.67 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,296.67 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,316.67 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,195.33 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,061.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,019.67 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,992.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,024.33 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,092.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,023.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,977.33 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,139.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,228.67 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,329.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,326.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,266.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,370.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,494.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,571.67 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,458.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,346.67 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,092.33 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,199.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,269.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,053.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,189.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,119.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,219.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,290.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,243.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,246.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,394.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,408.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,594.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,546.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,550.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,591.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,580.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,680.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,841.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,174.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,664.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,469.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,170.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,000.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,789.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,908.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,910.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,870.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,777.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,460.66 per share, central JPY 1,631.96 per share, high JPY 1,859.99 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,410.02 per share, central JPY 1,563.90 per share, high JPY 1,768.75 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,553.18 per share, central JPY 1,729.57 per share, high JPY 1,964.37 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,449.58 per share, central JPY 3,144.54 per share, high JPY 3,623.83 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,546.45 per share, central JPY 3,219.97 per share, high JPY 3,699.19 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,642.31 per share, central JPY 3,458.30 per share, high JPY 3,980.20 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 3,577.54 per share, central JPY 4,550.96 per share, high JPY 5,190.94 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF57.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations