# Oriental Land (4661.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4661.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:24.192Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,118.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.95×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: -0.27×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- FY2026: 0.24×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.9%

- FY2018: 17.1%

- FY2019: 17.6%

- FY2020: 10.8%

- FY2021: -5.1%

- FY2022: 0.7%

- FY2023: 10.4%

- FY2024: 15.7%

- FY2025: 15.7%

- FY2026: 14.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 455B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 455B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 11.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.6% vs 15.7%

- Per-share earnings: 49.34 to 74.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.31T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 478B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY 25.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 49.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 74.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.86

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 12B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 717B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 49.68

- FY2018: JPY 49.34

- FY2019: JPY 54.93

- FY2020: JPY 37.85

- FY2021: JPY -33.10

- FY2022: JPY 4.93

- FY2023: JPY 49.29

- FY2024: JPY 73.39

- FY2025: JPY 75.62

- FY2026: JPY 74.34

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -4.3%

- FY2020: -1.1%

- FY2021: -2.9%

- FY2022: -4.3%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -5.7%

- FY2025: -5.0%

- FY2026: -3.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Jun 2023 · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.233Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCJX.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 478B 

- FY2018: JPY 479B 

- FY2019: JPY 526B 

- FY2020: JPY 464B 

- FY2021: JPY 171B 

- FY2022: JPY 276B 

- FY2023: JPY 483B 

- FY2024: JPY 618B 

- FY2025: JPY 679B 

- FY2026: JPY 705B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 38.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCJX.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: 37.3% 

- FY2018: 36.8% 

- FY2019: 37.9% 

- FY2020: 35.3% 

- FY2021: 0.5% 

- FY2022: 23.8% 

- FY2023: 38.5% 

- FY2024: 40.3% 

- FY2025: 40.2% 

- FY2026: 38.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in leisure; annual sales are JPY 704.5 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCJX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 704539000000; grossProfit 272959000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.7% to 40.3% during 2024–26; it earns 15.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.2%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCJX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 38.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17872059626168169],[2018,0.17096692405339098],[2019,0.175751840167895],[2020,0.1079784940967436],[2021,-0.050787520671439094],[2022,0.006979377100509352],[2023,0.10374673733857097],[2024,0.15733988443841],[2025,0.15728741850185463],[2026,0.14540228466207025]]; median 0.15134485158196243. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 14% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 11.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2017: growth capex 11710365757.673607; upkeep 38595634242.32639; owner earnings 82058365757.67361. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1427077623292604.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 1469511540.9856186; upkeep 56317488459.01438; owner earnings 62212511540.98562. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.023620836140291555.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 44675254669.95377; upkeep 39175745330.04623; owner earnings 89324254669.95377. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5001469627149467.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2022: growth capex 61098000000; upkeep 44103000000; owner earnings 8067000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 7.573819263666791.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 46878000000; upkeep 46327000000; owner earnings 80734000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5806475586493919.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 5991000000; upkeep 46702000000; owner earnings 120225000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04983156581409857.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 37275000000; upkeep 65422000000; owner earnings 124160000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30021746134020616.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCJX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: growth capex 17059000000; upkeep 66545000000; owner earnings 121881000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13996439149662376.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Incremental return on capital 0.11420156029799142, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,11611000000],[2018,13173000000],[2019,13134000000],[2020,14444000000],[2021,11439000000],[2022,8511000000],[2023,10809000000],[2024,15361000000],[2025,24670000000],[2026,22919000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price is 7.3 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Closing price 3118 JPY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 429.725956137544; price multiple 7.255786985792429. FY2026 cash earnings/share 74.34. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,303.40 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,321.20 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,237.40 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,262.40 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,276.60 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,280.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,430.80 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,521.60 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,598.80 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,651.80 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,714.80 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,810.80 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,998.20 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,054.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,132.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,084.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,173.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,183.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,230.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,325.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,426.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,381.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,376.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,123.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,259.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,211.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,226.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,446.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,514.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,454.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,650.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,668.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,888.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,094.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,288.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,177.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,029.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,976.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,852.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,453.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,764.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,736.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,123.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,848.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,534.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,878.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,948.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,917.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,553.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,408.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,270.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,568.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,325.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,262.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,166.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,990.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 3,332.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 3,626.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 3,588.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 3,568.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 3,879.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 3,976.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 4,226.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,702.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 3,955.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,840.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,784.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,030.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,170.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,941.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,990.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 3,944.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,832.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 4,316.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 4,351.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 4,528.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 4,799.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 5,227.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 5,601.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 5,450.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 5,249.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 4,909.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 4,857.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 5,025.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 5,251.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 5,502.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 5,363.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,845.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,362.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,387.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,482.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,282.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,988.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,698.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,705.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,538.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,422.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,501.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,086.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,945.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,033.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,213.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,324.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,115.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,519.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,567.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,120.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,007.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,898.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,709.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,816.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,700.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,188.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,295.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,490.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,167.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,025.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,908.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,982.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCJX.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations