# Ly (4689.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4689.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:24.980Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 522.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 442.95 per share, central JPY 589.28 per share, high JPY 674.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 589.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:24.980Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.21×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- FY2026: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 8

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -11.0 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 12.8%

- FY2019: 94.9%

- FY2020: 12.8%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 4.6%

- FY2023: 8.7%

- FY2024: 5.2%

- FY2025: 7.7%

- FY2026: 11.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 638B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 717B

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 49.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -0.67×

- FY2023: 1.12×

- FY2024: 1.37×

- FY2025: 1.09×

- FY2026: 0.86×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 23.99 to 21.00 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY -276B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 83B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -1.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY -2.99

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 23.99

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 21.00

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 3.7%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.21T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 23.99

- FY2018: JPY 23.04

- FY2019: JPY 14.74

- FY2020: JPY 16.88

- FY2021: JPY 14.02

- FY2022: JPY 10.20

- FY2023: JPY 23.87

- FY2024: JPY 15.10

- FY2025: JPY 21.00

- FY2026: JPY 27.97

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.2%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.42×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.17×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.6%

- FY2018: 2.2%

- FY2019: -2.9%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: -2.7%

- FY2023: 1.0%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: -4.0%

- FY2026: -4.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 31% since Nov 2021 · sales +6.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.241Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBXD.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY 854B 

- FY2018: JPY 897B 

- FY2019: JPY 955B 

- FY2020: JPY 1.05T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.21T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.57T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.67T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.81T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.92T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.04T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 74%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBXD.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2018: 57.4% 

- FY2019: 57.2% 

- FY2020: 59.7% 

- FY2021: 64.1% 

- FY2022: 68.3% 

- FY2023: 69.4% 

- FY2024: 71.3% 

- FY2025: 72.4% 

- FY2026: 74.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBXD.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 2036366000000; grossProfit 1506271000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 71.3% to 74% during 2024–26; it earns 8.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4689.T (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.3%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4689.T (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.4%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4689.T (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 74%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.12758151480063823],[2019,0.9494542959898551],[2020,0.1282867689372534],[2021,0.03928738128737905],[2022,0.045886606091469266],[2023,0.08664407146694549],[2024,0.052490575691942355],[2025,0.07736999764266896],[2026,0.10950997761636007]]; median 0.08664407146694549. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years; bought back JPY 163.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2018: growth capex 6003157726.667297; upkeep 81618842273.3327; owner earnings 93938157726.6673. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0639054232267865.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2020: growth capex 1707000000; upkeep 83419000000; owner earnings 59748389570.55215. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028569807693048174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 70741000000; owner earnings 72157575908.88689. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 92842000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 199676346283.36407. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 71009000000; owner earnings 154993086939.9524. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 99740000000; owner earnings 167736881814.99286. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBXD.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 173750000000; owner earnings 167541630011.65707. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2018,50439000000],[2019,50463000000],[2020,45036000000],[2021,42190000000],[2022,42230000000],[2023,43554000000],[2024,41881000000],[2025,41722000000],[2026,49860000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4689.T (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 163463000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05343490497847492. Price 522.5999755859375; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 416.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 449.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 474.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 521.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 514.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 477.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 498.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 489.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 500.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 504.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 534.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 507.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 513.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 517.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 525.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 496.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 494.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 450.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 396.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 368.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 425.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 382.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 409.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 355.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 325.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 274.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 293.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 298.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 271.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 296.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 313.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 316.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 321.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 266.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 304.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 334.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 377.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 461.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 438.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 393.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 348.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 419.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 440.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 526.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 557.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 705.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 699.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 725.10 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 657.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 624.40 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 650.40 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 648.50 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 550.60 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 505.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 514.60 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 556.80 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 546.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 717.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 717.70 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 706.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 752.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 667.40 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 577.10 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 557.60 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 536.40 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 514.60 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 426.20 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 396.40 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 469.10 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 415.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 380.20 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 384.60 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 373.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 332.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 371.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 368.70 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 372.80 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 370.60 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 347.10 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 346.40 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 395.80 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 437.80 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 415.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 382.30 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 430.60 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 499.70 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 462.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 412.90 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 387.90 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 383.10 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 372.90 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 388.90 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 373.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 399.70 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 419.30 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 419.40 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 411.90 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 419.40 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 454.90 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 506.30 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 506.30 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 539.80 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 522.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 530.40 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 555.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 468.80 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 476.10 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 453.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 420.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 417.20 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 396.60 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 389.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 382.70 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 412.30 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 417.30 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 433.80 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 446.80 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 556.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 512.90 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 519.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2024: low JPY 347.21 per share, central JPY 431.60 per share, high JPY 480.73 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 409.01 per share, central JPY 539.57 per share, high JPY 615.59 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 442.95 per share, central JPY 589.28 per share, high JPY 674.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:24.980Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBXD.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations