# Trend Micro (4704.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4704.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:25.301Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 7,070.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 5,672.88 per share, central JPY 7,115.42 per share, high JPY 8,045.72 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 7,115.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:25.301Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 78.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 76.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: >100%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 14.7%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 13.9%

- FY2021: 14.3%

- FY2022: 9.6%

- FY2023: 10.0%

- FY2024: 26.7%

- FY2025: 29.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 157B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 148B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 41.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 29.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.10×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 200.2% vs 26.7%

- Per-share earnings: 179.63 to 259.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 285B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -34B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY 79.42

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 179.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 259.05

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.64

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 43B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 281B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 179.63

- FY2017: JPY 187.01

- FY2018: JPY 204.38

- FY2019: JPY 200.94

- FY2020: JPY 193.39

- FY2021: JPY 275.20

- FY2022: JPY 213.59

- FY2023: JPY 78.45

- FY2024: JPY 259.05

- FY2025: JPY 262.42

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.87×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.22×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.9%

- FY2017: -6.4%

- FY2018: -6.3%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -7.3%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -9.4%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -7.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 36% since Feb 2025 · sales +1.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.248Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: JPY 132B 

- FY2017: JPY 149B 

- FY2018: JPY 160B 

- FY2019: JPY 165B 

- FY2020: JPY 174B 

- FY2021: JPY 190B 

- FY2022: JPY 224B 

- FY2023: JPY 249B 

- FY2024: JPY 273B 

- FY2025: JPY 276B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 76.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: 82.5% 

- FY2017: 81.1% 

- FY2018: 79.6% 

- FY2019: 80.4% 

- FY2020: 78.1% 

- FY2021: 77.9% 

- FY2022: 75.7% 

- FY2023: 74.4% 

- FY2024: 76.2% 

- FY2025: 76.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 276 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 275984000000; grossProfit 212267000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.4% to 76.9% during 2023–25; it earns 20.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 74.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.2%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 76.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,2.0024510560097073],[2017,3.1553121039256498],[2018,0.1466229206018871],[2019,7.705500292530905],[2020,0.1394359749585177],[2021,0.14307501324375466],[2022,0.09550159609725573],[2023,0.09995943377091401],[2024,0.26732768496828135],[2025,0.29524650459924684]]; median 0.20697530278508425. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 10 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2016: growth capex 366516783.7866802; upkeep 8648483216.21332; owner earnings 23447516783.786682. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015631368863764566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2017: growth capex 851976837.9649372; upkeep 11376023162.035063; owner earnings 23957976837.964935. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03556130151252399.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2018: growth capex 597721746.8777103; upkeep 11830278253.12229; owner earnings 27964721746.87771. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02137413532263902.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 10692000000; owner earnings 28637000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 11840000000; owner earnings 32560000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 18787000000; owner earnings 38622000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 20979000000; owner earnings 32648000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 26361000000; owner earnings 10945000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 24940000000; owner earnings 36598000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 22857000000; owner earnings 38056000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,14494000000],[2017,18681000000],[2018,19788000000],[2019,21992000000],[2020,21679000000],[2021,20767000000],[2022,26541000000],[2023,20258000000],[2024,96289000000],[2025,23489000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 10000000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06204644066045162. Price 7070; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 156.18874483423616 → FY2025 289.27542565825684. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 4,110.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 4,155.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,385.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 4,920.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 4,950.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 4,900.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 5,560.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 5,790.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 5,520.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 5,090.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 5,540.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 6,050.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 6,350.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 6,390.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 5,880.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 6,080.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 6,350.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 6,560.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 6,180.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 6,320.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 6,590.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 7,000.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 7,310.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 6,520.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 6,510.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 5,970.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 5,780.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 5,490.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 5,390.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 5,560.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 4,875.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 4,805.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 4,765.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 5,150.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 5,140.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 5,500.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 5,910.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 5,600.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 5,760.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 5,370.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 5,340.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 5,470.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 5,920.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 6,020.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 6,150.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 6,560.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 6,410.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 5,850.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 5,670.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 5,940.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 5,740.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 5,120.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 5,540.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 5,200.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 5,550.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 5,820.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 5,690.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 6,030.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 6,220.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 6,430.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 6,550.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 6,390.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 6,060.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 6,400.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 7,160.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 7,260.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 7,570.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 6,620.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 7,710.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 8,620.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 7,820.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 7,510.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 6,810.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 6,140.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 6,390.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 6,410.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 6,470.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 6,620.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 6,640.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 6,945.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 6,710.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 6,189.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 5,668.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 5,642.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 7,514.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 7,548.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 8,504.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 7,426.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 7,789.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 7,810.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 7,078.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 6,531.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 7,249.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 8,731.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 8,486.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 8,071.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 8,229.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 8,567.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 9,230.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 10,990.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 10,015.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 10,230.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 10,825.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 9,977.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 9,228.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 7,851.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 8,100.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 7,883.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 7,796.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 6,502.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 6,050.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,200.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,240.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,476.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,010.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,982.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 6,341.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,997.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 6,533.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 7,474.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2019: low JPY 3,467.91 per share, central JPY 3,778.23 per share, high JPY 4,191.32 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 3,884.90 per share, central JPY 4,213.62 per share, high JPY 4,651.21 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 4,416.48 per share, central JPY 4,775.21 per share, high JPY 5,252.75 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 5,502.25 per share, central JPY 7,129.01 per share, high JPY 8,076.28 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 6,434.42 per share, central JPY 8,270.53 per share, high JPY 9,339.70 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 5,625.86 per share, central JPY 7,372.90 per share, high JPY 8,390.21 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 5,474.98 per share, central JPY 6,844.63 per share, high JPY 7,727.92 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUHN.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations