# Shiseido Company (4911.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4911.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:29.977Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,407.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 538.74 per share, central JPY 588.22 per share, high JPY 654.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 588.22 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:29.977Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.9% at the stated quote. About 3.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.83×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: -0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.8%

- FY2017: 16.8%

- FY2018: 19.0%

- FY2019: 15.5%

- FY2020: 1.7%

- FY2021: 13.6%

- FY2022: 5.8%

- FY2023: 3.6%

- FY2024: 0.8%

- FY2025: -2.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.9B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 51B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -72.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.47×

- FY2022: 0.41×

- FY2023: 0.70×

- FY2024: 1.13×

- FY2025: 0.91×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.8% vs 0.8%

- Per-share earnings: 58.17 to -27.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY -271B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 63B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: JPY -85.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 58.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY -27.06

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.09

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 307B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 241B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 80.41

- FY2017: JPY 56.95

- FY2018: JPY 153.74

- FY2019: JPY 184.18

- FY2020: JPY 0

- FY2021: JPY 117.43

- FY2022: JPY 85.60

- FY2023: JPY 54.43

- FY2024: JPY -27.06

- FY2025: JPY -101.83

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.39×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.9%

- FY2017: -7.7%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: 0.0%

- FY2021: -6.7%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -11.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since Oct 2021 · sales -2.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.281Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 27.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSCU.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: JPY 850B 

- FY2017: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.09T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.13T 

- FY2020: JPY 0 

- FY2021: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.07T 

- FY2023: JPY 973B 

- FY2024: JPY 991B 

- FY2025: JPY 970B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 76.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSCU.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: 75.6% 

- FY2017: 77.0% 

- FY2018: 78.8% 

- FY2019: 77.5% 

- FY2021: 73.1% 

- FY2022: 69.4% 

- FY2023: 73.3% 

- FY2024: 76.0% 

- FY2025: 76.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 970 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSCU.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: revenue 969992000000; grossProfit 743003000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 73.3% to 76.6% during 2023–25; it earns 6.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 73.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSCU.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 76.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07767351468892712],[2017,0.16797850017664004],[2018,0.18950462813475405],[2019,0.15502341864485586],[2020,0.016658755917207713],[2021,0.1362310489627075],[2022,0.05849858389786598],[2023,0.0357805916686244],[2024,0.007583235970205615],[2025,-0.0294103452422981]]; median 0.06808604929339655. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2016: growth capex 15690199005.354286; upkeep 48015800994.64571; owner earnings 16378199005.354286. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9579929392862376.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2017: growth capex 5019000000; upkeep 39614000000; owner earnings 20624000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24335725368502714.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2018: growth capex 16434840567.935257; upkeep 81245159432.06474; owner earnings 20035840567.935257. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8202720775407382.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2019: growth capex 7421744789.473434; upkeep 104378255210.52657; owner earnings 16637744789.473434. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.44607877349874436.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2021: growth capex 19156000000; upkeep 76058000000; owner earnings 22105000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8665912689436779.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 66204000000; owner earnings 14012000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 55675000000; owner earnings 15134000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,8214000000],[2017,8977000000],[2018,13940000000],[2019,22028000000],[2020,19967000000],[2021,15987000000],[2022,21969000000],[2023,41908000000],[2024,23979000000],[2025,12004000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 27.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3926882140039636. Price 3407; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 65.88673545885395 → FY2025 -92.86605629301869. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,909.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,958.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,158.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,955.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,930.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,016.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,728.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,994.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,900.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 4,559.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,502.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,673.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 5,472.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 5,446.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 5,601.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 6,461.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 6,813.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 7,112.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 8,626.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 8,798.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 8,210.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 7,824.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 8,799.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 7,137.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 7,224.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 6,892.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 6,475.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 7,348.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 7,987.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 8,718.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 7,833.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 8,121.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 8,046.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 8,690.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 8,629.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 8,968.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 7,905.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 7,782.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 7,087.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 6,418.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 6,382.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 6,378.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 6,570.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 6,835.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 5,850.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 6,171.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 6,035.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 6,450.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 7,360.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 7,136.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 6,789.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 7,913.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 7,422.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 7,928.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 7,929.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 8,171.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 7,286.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 7,293.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 7,537.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 7,575.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 6,503.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 6,414.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 5,762.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 6,566.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 6,218.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 6,136.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 5,426.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 5,446.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 5,450.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 5,295.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 5,056.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 5,155.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 5,799.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 6,471.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 6,713.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 6,271.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 6,181.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 6,801.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 6,345.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 6,493.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 6,230.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 5,916.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 5,250.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 4,762.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,966.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 4,252.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 4,130.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,047.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,104.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,215.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,971.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,588.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,720.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,261.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,875.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,360.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,855.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,786.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,617.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,716.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,820.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,353.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,330.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,573.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,455.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,406.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,527.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,600.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,221.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,278.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,629.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,300.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,190.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,181.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,810.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,618.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,154.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,726.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,485.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,359.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2019: low JPY 816.07 per share, central JPY 898.31 per share, high JPY 1,007.78 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 529.73 per share, central JPY 577.77 per share, high JPY 641.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSCU.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations