# Idemitsu Kosan (5019.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5019.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:32.718Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,550.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,088.45 per share, central JPY 2,370.76 per share, high JPY 2,746.56 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,370.76 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:32.718Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.0% at the stated quote. About 14.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.51×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: -0.00×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.02×

- FY2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.5%

- FY2018: 9.5%

- FY2019: 6.9%

- FY2020: -0.1%

- FY2021: 4.3%

- FY2022: 12.6%

- FY2023: 7.2%

- FY2024: 8.5%

- FY2025: 4.0%

- FY2026: 5.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.00T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.04T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.59×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.9% vs 5.4%

- Per-share earnings: 110.24 to 140.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.27T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 999B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 3.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY 30.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 110.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 140.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.23

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 317B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.38T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 110.24

- FY2018: JPY 169.03

- FY2019: JPY 80.33

- FY2020: JPY -15.26

- FY2021: JPY 23.49

- FY2022: JPY 188.03

- FY2023: JPY 170.67

- FY2024: JPY 161.32

- FY2025: JPY 77.83

- FY2026: JPY 140.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.17×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.3%

- FY2018: 0.9%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: 0.3%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: 2.9%

- FY2023: 5.9%

- FY2024: -3.0%

- FY2025: -7.8%

- FY2026: -4.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years · sales -11.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.288Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -11.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: JPY 3.19T 

- FY2018: JPY 3.73T 

- FY2019: JPY 4.43T 

- FY2020: JPY 6.05T 

- FY2021: JPY 4.56T 

- FY2022: JPY 6.69T 

- FY2023: JPY 9.46T 

- FY2024: JPY 8.72T 

- FY2025: JPY 9.19T 

- FY2026: JPY 8.11T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 9.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: 13.1% 

- FY2018: 13.2% 

- FY2019: 11.0% 

- FY2020: 6.8% 

- FY2021: 12.3% 

- FY2022: 13.2% 

- FY2023: 8.4% 

- FY2024: 9.7% 

- FY2025: 7.5% 

- FY2026: 9.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 8.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: revenue 8105891000000; grossProfit 754484000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.5% to 9.7% during 2024–26; it earns 6.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 9.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 7.5%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 9.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06481617856301722],[2018,0.09503116985454856],[2019,0.06884992725582263],[2020,-0.0014154577980612303],[2021,0.04253498121580311],[2022,0.12602772968514347],[2023,0.07194691441582277],[2024,0.0850218975067735],[2025,0.04013512736648021],[2026,0.053676339247527786]]; median 0.06683305290941993. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 2.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 43422000000; owner earnings 114942000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 59242000000; owner earnings 170972000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2019: growth capex 19589000000; upkeep 61615000000; owner earnings 81450000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24050337630448126.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 132827000000; owner earnings 251000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2022: growth capex 2684000000; upkeep 104767000000; owner earnings 279498000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009602930969094592.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 90478000000; owner earnings 267617000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 77116000000; owner earnings 250560000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 95222000000; owner earnings 104492000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 166866000000; owner earnings 101014000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,7997000000],[2018,12316000000],[2019,18460000000],[2020,34028000000],[2021,41697000000],[2022,35739000000],[2023,50629000000],[2024,40218000000],[2025,46140000000],[2026,44199000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: cash repurchases 2309000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07692125892539942. Price 1550; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -20.550485094323896 → FY2026 82.48511069488232. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 517.60 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 621.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 699.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 724.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 774.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 713.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 620.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 638.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 535.40 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 537.20 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 635.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 659.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 754.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 905.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 816.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 825.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 809.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 857.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 731.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 790.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,006.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,122.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,202.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,030.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 826.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 722.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 767.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 790.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 741.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 721.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 615.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 648.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 604.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 571.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 611.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 641.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 597.60 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 606.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 553.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 531.60 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 495.60 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 494.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 478.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 457.40 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 436.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 467.20 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 448.40 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 421.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 434.80 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 454.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 490.80 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 556.80 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 570.80 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 523.40 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 517.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 536.60 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 514.80 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 527.60 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 589.20 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 623.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 586.20 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 587.40 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 586.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 616.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 675.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 681.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 700.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 654.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 686.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 730.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 627.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 650.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 648.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 614.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 645.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 607.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 580.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 576.40 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 541.60 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 577.20 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 600.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 619.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 687.60 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 683.80 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 811.20 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 767.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 823.70 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 948.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,044.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,074.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,073.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,041.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,004.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,059.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,028.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,047.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 999.70 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,035.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,042.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,013.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,053.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 884.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 881.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 875.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 968.80 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 984.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,016.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,071.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,157.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,183.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,306.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,491.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,541.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,348.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,398.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,198.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,311.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,420.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,590.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,561.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 816.83 per share, central JPY 928.42 per share, high JPY 1,076.96 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 643.71 per share, central JPY 728.73 per share, high JPY 841.92 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 909.42 per share, central JPY 1,034.21 per share, high JPY 1,200.32 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,334.54 per share, central JPY 1,586.63 per share, high JPY 1,846.97 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,904.00 per share, central JPY 2,166.52 per share, high JPY 2,515.99 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,229.47 per share, central JPY 2,666.60 per share, high JPY 3,105.13 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,088.45 per share, central JPY 2,370.76 per share, high JPY 2,746.56 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCS3.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations