# ENEOS Holdings (5020.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5020.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:32.758Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,376.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,082.50 per share, central JPY 1,204.05 per share, high JPY 1,365.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,204.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:32.758Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.72×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: -0.01×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.01×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 8.1%

- FY2019: 8.6%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: 4.4%

- FY2022: 12.2%

- FY2023: 4.1%

- FY2024: 4.9%

- FY2025: 1.4%

- FY2026: 6.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.32T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.45T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.76×

- FY2024: 0.79×

- FY2025: 0.93×

- FY2026: 0.94×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 60.33 to 95.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.43T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.58T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 35.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 60.33

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 95.64

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.21T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 60.33

- FY2018: JPY 105.92

- FY2019: JPY 95.36

- FY2020: JPY -57.86

- FY2021: JPY 35.48

- FY2022: JPY 167.27

- FY2023: JPY 46.57

- FY2024: JPY 95.64

- FY2025: JPY 79.96

- FY2026: JPY 96.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.1%

- FY2018: -4.1%

- FY2019: -0.3%

- FY2020: -8.7%

- FY2021: -7.0%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 2.6%

- FY2024: -7.1%

- FY2025: -4.0%

- FY2026: -4.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.9% a year for ten years · sales -4.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.295Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7I.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: JPY 7.03T 

- FY2018: JPY 10.30T 

- FY2019: JPY 11.13T 

- FY2020: JPY 10.01T 

- FY2021: JPY 7.66T 

- FY2022: JPY 10.92T 

- FY2023: JPY 15.02T 

- FY2024: JPY 12.34T 

- FY2025: JPY 12.32T 

- FY2026: JPY 11.77T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 10.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7I.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2018: 12.5% 

- FY2019: 11.0% 

- FY2020: 7.7% 

- FY2021: 14.2% 

- FY2022: 14.5% 

- FY2023: 8.1% 

- FY2024: 9.4% 

- FY2025: 9.0% 

- FY2026: 10.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 11.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7I.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: revenue 11765470000000; grossProfit 1223421000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9% to 10.4% during 2024–26; it earns 4.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 9.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7I.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 10.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.08082059763060026],[2019,0.08649190767578968],[2020,-0.022147604925536715],[2021,0.0438441978015504],[2022,0.1223048316578134],[2023,0.041060312398054855],[2024,0.04943843695210686],[2025,0.014203696224354611],[2026,0.06345963369550413]]; median 0.04943843695210686. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 225364000000; owner earnings 343025331876.4332. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 255514000000; owner earnings 534037434710.52686. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 318729000000; owner earnings 109058537598.59686. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 328409000000; owner earnings 227627449027.73517. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 303373000000; owner earnings 210232217749.8336. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7I.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 256281000000; owner earnings 243512569961.0378. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Dividend observations: [[2018,50697000000],[2019,67988000000],[2020,72118000000],[2021,70800000000],[2022,70733000000],[2023,69159000000],[2024,66418000000],[2025,69543000000],[2026,80827000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.028228706808401394. Price 1376; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 436.40 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 494.70 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 532.60 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 535.10 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 546.70 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 503.10 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 482.40 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 490.70 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 490.20 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 532.40 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 578.90 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 583.20 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 630.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 727.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 723.80 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 656.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 643.70 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 714.40 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 702.90 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 770.20 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 819.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 782.40 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 858.30 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 769.20 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 686.30 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 576.70 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 593.40 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 520.70 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 506.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 540.70 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 518.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 534.40 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 514.70 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 439.10 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 492.40 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 509.40 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 486.60 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 497.90 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 468.80 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 434.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 370.20 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 382.70 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 414.30 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 382.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 367.20 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 415.60 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 375.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 350.60 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 358.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 370.40 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 423.70 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 467.70 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 501.60 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 471.20 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 452.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 464.90 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 459.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 426.10 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 455.90 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 459.60 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 423.40 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 430.30 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 455.30 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 453.80 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 458.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 456.20 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 521.20 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 513.70 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 511.70 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 523.60 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 465.10 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 489.80 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 466.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 448.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 463.20 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 470.30 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 465.20 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 482.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 463.80 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 494.40 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 515.40 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 546.30 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 589.90 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 557.70 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 584.40 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 560.40 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 598.60 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 646.30 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 731.90 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 730.90 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 810.40 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 826.60 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 792.20 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 789.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 778.70 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 776.40 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 808.80 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 826.30 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 787.10 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 798.90 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 782.30 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 685.90 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 685.40 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 715.10 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 793.60 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 879.80 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 939.90 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 972.80 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,028.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,107.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,298.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,488.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,410.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,320.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,305.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,197.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,327.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,339.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,385.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,400.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2026: low JPY 1,082.50 per share, central JPY 1,204.05 per share, high JPY 1,365.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:32.758Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7I.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations