# NGK (5333.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5333.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:36.963Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,165.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 3,957.68 per share, central JPY 4,489.56 per share, high JPY 5,050.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 4,489.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:36.963Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.3%

- FY2018: 10.5%

- FY2019: 8.4%

- FY2020: 6.1%

- FY2021: 6.1%

- FY2022: 10.1%

- FY2023: 9.5%

- FY2024: 6.8%

- FY2025: 8.7%

- FY2026: 9.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 331B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 281B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 50.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.17×

- FY2023: 1.19×

- FY2024: 1.29×

- FY2025: 1.25×

- FY2026: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.3% vs 8.7%

- Per-share earnings: 142.42 to 185.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 342B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 202B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 3.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY 43.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 142.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 185.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.14

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 4.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 465B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 112.71

- FY2018: JPY 142.42

- FY2019: JPY 110.35

- FY2020: JPY 84.73

- FY2021: JPY 121.61

- FY2022: JPY 226.56

- FY2023: JPY 177.47

- FY2024: JPY 133.65

- FY2025: JPY 185.96

- FY2026: JPY 206.32

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.8%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -3.1%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: -3.7%

- FY2026: -6.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 31% since Jun 2026 · sales +8.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.345Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 401B 

- FY2018: JPY 451B 

- FY2019: JPY 464B 

- FY2020: JPY 442B 

- FY2021: JPY 452B 

- FY2022: JPY 510B 

- FY2023: JPY 559B 

- FY2024: JPY 579B 

- FY2025: JPY 620B 

- FY2026: JPY 670B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 29.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 32.1% 

- FY2018: 30.8% 

- FY2019: 30.3% 

- FY2020: 29.1% 

- FY2021: 27.2% 

- FY2022: 31.9% 

- FY2023: 27.5% 

- FY2024: 26.9% 

- FY2025: 28.4% 

- FY2026: 29.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 670.1 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 670125000000; grossProfit 195161000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26.9% to 29.1% during 2024–26; it earns 9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 29.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.10269716336696769],[2018,0.10491630008476693],[2019,0.08415048458165106],[2020,0.06144987323277899],[2021,0.06064167538596799],[2022,0.1005280081659802],[2023,0.09512933575882263],[2024,0.06756373933172928],[2025,0.08708871254658379],[2026,0.09360846490543992]]; median 0.09034858872601186. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 15 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 59361000000; owner earnings 3633000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 27257454277.018944; upkeep 39803545722.98106; owner earnings 36326454277.01894. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7503472281979008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 7080609107.693512; upkeep 46261390892.30649; owner earnings 37176609107.69351. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19045871255181837.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 37428000000; owner earnings 82693000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 43153000000; owner earnings 65624000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 45135000000; owner earnings 52233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 43748000000; owner earnings 68438000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 55470000000; owner earnings 61953000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,12963000000],[2018,13188000000],[2019,15444000000],[2020,16090000000],[2021,11079000000],[2022,15679000000],[2023,20572000000],[2024,17768000000],[2025,16301000000],[2026,19841000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 15004000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04599856580667738. Price 5165; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 163.28 → FY2026 213.26319674319274. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,186.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,267.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,419.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,520.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,381.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,224.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,239.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,222.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,053.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,108.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,225.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,145.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,128.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,222.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,004.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,834.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,012.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,987.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,973.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,956.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,874.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,587.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,683.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,491.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,699.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,608.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,644.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,474.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,571.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,632.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,426.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,539.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,674.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,805.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,904.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,857.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,697.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,417.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,424.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,579.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,488.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,307.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,507.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,495.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,483.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,659.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,592.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,828.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,880.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,024.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,991.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,918.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,864.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,742.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,825.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,903.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,892.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,797.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,944.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,928.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,780.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,753.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,916.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,828.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,938.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,999.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,800.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,737.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,811.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,678.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,808.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,700.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,683.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,714.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,742.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,934.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,982.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,832.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,804.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,685.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,852.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,954.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,043.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,152.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,095.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,060.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,046.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,941.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,871.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,905.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,970.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,013.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,000.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,867.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,835.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,761.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,803.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,917.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,345.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,479.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,606.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,081.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,351.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,689.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,587.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,977.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,961.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,316.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 7,532.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,594.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,323.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,441.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,608.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 456.12 per share, central JPY 474.95 per share, high JPY 500.01 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 638.30 per share, central JPY 657.78 per share, high JPY 683.72 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,997.58 per share, central JPY 2,195.66 per share, high JPY 2,459.34 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,671.96 per share, central JPY 3,535.78 per share, high JPY 4,038.79 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,055.44 per share, central JPY 3,972.51 per share, high JPY 4,529.89 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,842.56 per share, central JPY 4,902.89 per share, high JPY 5,598.83 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 3,957.68 per share, central JPY 4,489.56 per share, high JPY 5,050.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations