# SAIC Motor (600104.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600104.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 10.73 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 18.89 per share, central CNY 20.02 per share, high CNY 21.54 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 20.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 853.8% at the stated quote. About 853.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 28.8%

- FY2017: 26.1%

- FY2018: 24.1%

- FY2019: 16.7%

- FY2020: 12.8%

- FY2021: 13.9%

- FY2022: 7.6%

- FY2023: 7.6%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 5.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.77×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 52B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 67B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -6.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.93×

- FY2022: 0.57×

- FY2023: 0.77×

- FY2024: -0.02×

- FY2025: 0.85×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 26.1% vs 5.1%

- Per-share earnings: 2.90 to 0.88 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: CNY -85B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 77B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -13.8%

- Per-share value change: CNY -2.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 2.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.88

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 17B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 215B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 26.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 2.90

- FY2017: CNY 2.95

- FY2018: CNY 3.08

- FY2019: CNY 2.19

- FY2020: CNY 1.75

- FY2021: CNY 2.12

- FY2022: CNY 1.40

- FY2023: CNY 1.23

- FY2024: CNY 0.15

- FY2025: CNY 0.88

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.70×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.39×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.5%

- FY2017: 1.4%

- FY2018: 3.5%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: 0.3%

- FY2022: 0.7%

- FY2023: -4.5%

- FY2024: -7.1%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 48% since Dec 2024 · sales +4.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.809Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 73.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 756B 

- FY2017: CNY 871B 

- FY2018: CNY 902B 

- FY2019: CNY 843B 

- FY2020: CNY 742B 

- FY2021: CNY 780B 

- FY2022: CNY 744B 

- FY2023: CNY 745B 

- FY2024: CNY 628B 

- FY2025: CNY 656B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 11.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 14.0% 

- FY2017: 14.5% 

- FY2018: 15.0% 

- FY2019: 13.4% 

- FY2020: 11.7% 

- FY2021: 11.4% 

- FY2022: 11.6% 

- FY2023: 11.0% 

- FY2024: 11.2% 

- FY2025: 11.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto manufacturers; annual sales are CNY 656.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2025: revenue 656243812081.18; grossProfit 75299828431.77; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600104.SHG: SAIC Motor Corporation Limited engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vehicles and their parts in the China and internationally. The company operates through Vehicles & Components and Financial Services segments. Its Vehicles & Components segment produces and sells complete vehicles and components. The Financial Services segment engages in financial services. SAIC Motor Corporation Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. SAIC Motor Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (Group) Corp.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11% to 11.5% during 2023–25; it earns 13.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 11%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.28763815400027826],[2017,0.260919039025601],[2018,0.2406431525200245],[2019,0.16666223627660018],[2020,0.12828965021518854],[2021,0.13883245063791297],[2022,0.07578096315528919],[2023,0.07635193309494498],[2024,0.04249102298342792],[2025,0.05064369705821751]]; median 0.13356105042655075. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 12% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.11365402441246249],[2022,0.1162072520690432],[2023,0.1102488264976146]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 11% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2016: growth capex 6156821747.025921; upkeep 11109695228.26408; owner earnings 28383196771.73592. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21691784038776435.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2017: growth capex 8581800575.01886; upkeep 16830558223.241138; owner earnings 26173540776.75886. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.32788076509079667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2018: growth capex 2575224796.7380066; upkeep 29399920065.391994; owner earnings 17517336934.608006. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1470100624513468.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 26934783653.85; owner earnings 11449178346.150002. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 15137821168.9; owner earnings 18944966831.1. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2021: growth capex 3198227360.700001; upkeep 15544470000; owner earnings 22863929860.648. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13988091199512445.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 22934719144.22; owner earnings 9240217988.151466. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2023: growth capex 85368612.6793251; upkeep 19324546133.320675; owner earnings 10851164840.444492. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007867230286755848.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); FY2025: growth capex 951395214.8799973; upkeep 20835095820.88; owner earnings 8629325492.951036. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11025139979447471.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,15527708310.24],[2017,20715382621],[2018,23099233638.75],[2019,16663595816.48],[2020,10281446000],[2021,7176685655],[2022,7846983360],[2023,6940431440],[2024,7564526000],[2025,4038890566.08]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 75.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600104.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 75.94999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 73.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 9.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:51.546Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.8846889303086367. Price 10.73; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.1217686181589235 → FY2025 0.7553093507473934. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 23.68 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 25.25 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 23.45 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 25.36 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 25.78 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 25.38 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 27.25 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 30.07 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 31.05 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 30.14 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 29.73 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 30.19 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 31.49 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 30.88 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 32.04 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 34.39 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 33.64 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 34.00 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 31.93 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 36.25 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 34.99 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 31.88 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 29.15 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 33.28 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 27.11 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 24.85 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 26.67 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 26.60 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 28.32 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 26.07 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 26.58 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 23.95 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 25.50 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 24.84 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 25.08 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 23.78 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 23.50 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 23.25 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 23.85 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 22.61 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 22.21 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 20.50 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 18.90 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 17.92 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 16.99 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 18.18 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 18.66 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 19.13 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 23.15 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 26.51 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 24.44 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 21.94 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 21.25 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 19.67 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 20.06 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 20.28 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 21.97 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 18.34 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 19.32 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 19.08 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 20.28 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 19.95 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 20.63 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 18.66 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 18.11 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 17.00 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 15.95 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 17.19 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 17.81 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 16.19 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 15.47 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 14.30 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 13.75 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 15.18 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 14.41 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 15.02 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 15.03 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 14.36 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 14.12 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 13.42 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 14.17 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 15.49 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 14.36 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 14.80 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 14.52 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 14.88 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 13.53 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 13.67 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 14.96 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 15.07 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 14.86 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 14.07 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 13.86 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 14.68 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 12.56 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 14.63 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 12.87 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 17.58 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 20.76 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 17.16 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 16.45 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 15.79 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 16.24 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 16.21 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 16.05 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 17.18 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 18.79 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 17.12 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 16.63 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 14.97 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 15.22 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 14.14 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 14.33 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 14.59 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 13.78 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 12.32 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 9.76 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 11.32 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 10.40 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 10.88 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 10.76 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 43.35 per share, central CNY 58.33 per share, high CNY 67.06 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 47.35 per share, central CNY 63.64 per share, high CNY 73.12 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 48.00 per share, central CNY 63.72 per share, high CNY 72.87 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 39.11 per share, central CNY 44.65 per share, high CNY 49.77 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 33.42 per share, central CNY 35.87 per share, high CNY 39.13 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 34.11 per share, central CNY 36.71 per share, high CNY 40.16 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 25.09 per share, central CNY 26.98 per share, high CNY 29.49 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 21.08 per share, central CNY 22.51 per share, high CNY 24.41 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 14.97 per share, central CNY 16.18 per share, high CNY 17.79 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 18.87 per share, central CNY 20.01 per share, high CNY 21.52 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations