# China International Travel Service (601888.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601888.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 48.56 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 28.70 per share, central CNY 30.92 per share, high CNY 33.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 30.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 62.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 39.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 53.7%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 90.7%

- FY2019: 75.4%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 71.1%

- FY2022: 22.3%

- FY2023: 28.2%

- FY2024: 20.4%

- FY2025: 14.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 23B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 29B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.84×

- FY2022: 0.50×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 0.76×

- FY2025: 0.83×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 90.7% vs 20.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.93 to 2.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Market cap gain: CNY 153B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 28B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.5%

- Per-share value change: CNY 1.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.93

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 2.06

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 2.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 47B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 90.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.93

- FY2017: CNY 1.30

- FY2018: CNY 1.59

- FY2019: CNY 2.37

- FY2020: CNY 3.14

- FY2021: CNY 4.94

- FY2022: CNY 2.53

- FY2023: CNY 3.25

- FY2024: CNY 2.06

- FY2025: CNY 1.73

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.69×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.7%

- FY2017: -2.3%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: 5.6%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: 2.4%

- FY2022: 11.1%

- FY2023: -10.7%

- FY2024: -4.8%

- FY2025: -3.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 82% since Oct 2021 · sales -4.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.798Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 22B 

- FY2017: CNY 28B 

- FY2018: CNY 47B 

- FY2019: CNY 49B 

- FY2020: CNY 53B 

- FY2021: CNY 68B 

- FY2022: CNY 54B 

- FY2023: CNY 68B 

- FY2024: CNY 56B 

- FY2025: CNY 54B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 30.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 24.7% 

- FY2017: 29.9% 

- FY2018: 41.0% 

- FY2019: 50.6% 

- FY2020: 38.9% 

- FY2021: 32.9% 

- FY2022: 27.3% 

- FY2023: 30.9% 

- FY2024: 30.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty retail; annual sales are CNY 53.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2025: revenue 53693579000; grossProfit 53693579000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601888.SHG: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in duty-free tourism retail business in China. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities, such as tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, watches and jewelry, apparel and bags, and electronic products, as well as food. It is also involved in the investment and development of commercial complexes for duty-free businesses. The company was formerly known as China International Travel Service Corporation Limited and changed its name to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited in June 2020. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Tourism Group Co., Ltd.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.7% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 62.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.537149882559339],[2017,1.11344877698454],[2018,0.9068513166536036],[2019,0.7538792232457385],[2020,1.0217970976528032],[2021,0.7114334382335277],[2022,0.223368060484304],[2023,0.28249600929149543],[2024,0.20430538312672253],[2025,0.14493948498875162]]; median 0.6242916603964334. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 2.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2016: growth capex 9687685.870000005; upkeep 156950817; owner earnings 1808190529. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.005357668738237266.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2017: growth capex 137386166.51999998; upkeep 156521099; owner earnings 2530762834. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05428646441075402.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2018: growth capex 1329406313.45; upkeep 252318000; owner earnings 3094748000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4295685184868041.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2019: growth capex 101133120.01832509; upkeep 1397103339.931675; owner earnings 3530314660.068325. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028647055505349142.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2020: growth capex 230723872.10321987; upkeep 1002999273.6567801; owner earnings 5450758726.34322. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.042328762597424095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2021: growth capex 1052501555.3549211; upkeep 1102345104.235079; owner earnings 8089759055.330921. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1301029546314303.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2995380376.95; owner earnings 2529861946.890769. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2023: growth capex 1417764527.7864194; upkeep 383836259.2135806; owner earnings 6335386595.634419. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22378500607419458.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1118981471; owner earnings 3230241922.674. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1273061670.55; owner earnings 2962981631.692. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,493638139],[2017,980745305.35],[2018,1020827851.42],[2019,1073861549],[2020,1405782391],[2021,1952475544],[2022,2928713316],[2023,1770711118],[2024,3497509341],[2025,2743277457.99]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 2302342.5749999993 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 53.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601888.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 53.937000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:08.180Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12194302569478832. Price 48.56; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.5576555538120928 → FY2025 1.4321745725984543. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 22.53 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 22.26 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 21.70 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 22.88 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 24.56 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 28.35 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 26.58 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 27.12 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 30.14 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 28.89 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 29.97 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 34.49 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 41.37 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 41.69 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 43.39 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 51.28 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 52.36 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 52.91 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 52.07 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 67.65 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 64.41 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 70.23 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 63.36 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 68.02 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 53.68 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 55.21 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 60.20 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 54.50 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 63.80 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 70.08 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 77.30 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 77.39 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 88.65 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 90.50 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 95.48 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 93.06 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 90.35 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 83.80 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 88.95 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 82.00 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 78.50 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 67.20 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 91.30 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 101.23 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 154.03 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 243.00 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 208.00 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 222.94 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 199.40 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 193.20 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 282.45 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 294.00 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 307.91 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 306.08 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 311.99 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 334.50 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 300.10 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 241.00 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 228.29 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 260.00 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 268.46 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 205.45 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 219.41 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 206.56 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 202.50 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 164.37 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 181.99 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 176.70 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 232.93 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 209.90 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 195.50 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 198.25 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 160.36 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 197.48 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 216.03 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 212.30 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 197.58 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 183.24 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 160.98 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 123.10 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 110.53 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 125.77 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 108.92 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 105.97 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 94.60 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 89.15 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 83.69 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 79.81 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 87.10 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 85.42 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 74.90 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 71.00 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 62.49 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 68.61 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 61.01 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 77.20 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 67.83 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 69.55 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 67.01 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 60.70 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 61.17 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 60.20 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 63.40 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 60.59 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 60.97 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 64.96 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 69.29 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 71.57 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 76.07 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 79.03 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 94.56 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 89.37 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 80.58 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 70.38 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 65.62 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 59.58 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 53.71 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 58.01 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 52.48 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 51.44 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 50.27 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 12.84 per share, central CNY 16.47 per share, high CNY 18.58 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 16.30 per share, central CNY 20.89 per share, high CNY 23.56 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 26.85 per share, central CNY 36.08 per share, high CNY 41.46 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 30.18 per share, central CNY 40.71 per share, high CNY 46.85 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 36.57 per share, central CNY 49.24 per share, high CNY 56.62 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 50.11 per share, central CNY 68.18 per share, high CNY 78.70 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 37.54 per share, central CNY 49.12 per share, high CNY 55.85 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 56.37 per share, central CNY 74.21 per share, high CNY 84.60 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 44.61 per share, central CNY 48.47 per share, high CNY 53.60 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 32.04 per share, central CNY 34.27 per share, high CNY 37.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations