# Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock (603369.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/603369.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 29.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 24.40 per share, central CNY 30.04 per share, high CNY 34.28 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 30.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.3% at the stated quote. About 10.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.39×

- FY2017: 0.41×

- FY2018: 0.41×

- FY2019: 0.40×

- FY2020: 0.41×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.41×

- FY2024: 0.39×

- FY2025: 0.31×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 42.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 28.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.9%

- FY2017: 23.4%

- FY2018: 28.8%

- FY2019: 47.5%

- FY2020: 54.7%

- FY2021: 76.8%

- FY2022: 62.4%

- FY2023: 48.9%

- FY2024: 36.9%

- FY2025: 20.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.66×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 9.1B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 14B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 43.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.96×

- FY2022: 0.77×

- FY2023: 0.59×

- FY2024: 0.69×

- FY2025: 0.39×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.4% vs 36.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.60 to 2.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: CNY 27B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 19.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 1.91

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.60

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 2.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 347M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 20B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 36.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.60

- FY2017: CNY 0.71

- FY2018: CNY 0.92

- FY2019: CNY 1.16

- FY2020: CNY 1.25

- FY2021: CNY 1.63

- FY2022: CNY 2.01

- FY2023: CNY 2.52

- FY2024: CNY 2.74

- FY2025: CNY 2.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 4.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.84×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.8%

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: 0.3%

- FY2019: 1.5%

- FY2020: 3.8%

- FY2021: -6.9%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: 1.6%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 4.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since Mar 2023 · sales -11.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.958Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -11.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 2.6B 

- FY2017: CNY 3.0B 

- FY2018: CNY 3.7B 

- FY2019: CNY 4.9B 

- FY2020: CNY 5.1B 

- FY2021: CNY 6.4B 

- FY2022: CNY 7.9B 

- FY2023: CNY 10B 

- FY2024: CNY 12B 

- FY2025: CNY 10B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 70.9% 

- FY2017: 71.5% 

- FY2018: 72.6% 

- FY2019: 72.6% 

- FY2020: 71.0% 

- FY2021: 74.5% 

- FY2022: 76.5% 

- FY2023: 78.2% 

- FY2024: 74.6% 

- FY2025: 74.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages wineries & distilleries; annual sales are CNY 10.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2025: revenue 10182116333.95; grossProfit 7560402059.61; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.3% to 78.2% during 2023–25; it earns 42.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 78.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 74.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1991026216654845],[2017,0.23430814510603093],[2018,0.28835394053744634],[2019,0.47472754229994674],[2020,0.5474160836057101],[2021,0.7675341895169848],[2022,0.6239589598734833],[2023,0.4894967383737591],[2024,0.36909269914654635],[2025,0.20791532147044678]]; median 0.4219101207232465. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 927997.3 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2016: growth capex 36440445.22887553; upkeep 90773324.10112447; owner earnings 753230239.8988755. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04837889306431434.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2017: growth capex 120048061.83011134; upkeep 126713622.52988867; owner earnings 860657092.4701114. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13948419513463817.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2018: growth capex 120970057.63999999; upkeep 83887710; owner earnings 1150710683. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10512638791587545.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2019: growth capex 54625676.06; upkeep 95516445; owner earnings 1458097936. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.037463653648570835.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2020: growth capex 72408978.2880559; upkeep 322854945.6219441; owner earnings 1351065141.3780558. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.053593994893688386.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2021: growth capex 376058044.5701252; upkeep 200585123.45987475; owner earnings 1943993907.9821253. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19344610239055493.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2022: growth capex 444286467.35154235; upkeep 702718875.2984577; owner earnings 1937912911.7015424. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22926028546940547.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2023: growth capex 757039673.964699; upkeep 1437327037.035301; owner earnings 1842651962.964699. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.41084246465440755.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2024: growth capex 593735532.7827029; upkeep 1222859450.217297; owner earnings 2346538817.782703. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2530260860307169.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1831700785.62; owner earnings 1011230451.5660002. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,205738008.33],[2017,239753896.95],[2018,315209179.46],[2019,414156689],[2020,514576644],[2021,998082127],[2022,735962293],[2023,923066369],[2024,1247391666],[2025,1501607653.02]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 927997.275 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 63.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 603369.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 63.175000000000004 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:19.257Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.037122701513292555. Price 29.1; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.5272119600425815 → FY2025 0.8110612295220126. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 13.31 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 13.30 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 13.12 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 12.28 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 13.92 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 13.19 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 13.67 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 12.28 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 13.20 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 15.20 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 15.72 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 16.00 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 15.54 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 14.21 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 15.51 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 16.53 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 15.84 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 15.71 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 16.71 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 23.58 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 22.83 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 20.74 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 17.65 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 20.00 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 14.58 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 15.50 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 14.49 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 17.37 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 20.78 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 28.70 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 26.80 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 24.48 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 27.89 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 27.57 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 29.72 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 32.32 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 31.30 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 30.18 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 32.72 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 30.86 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 29.50 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 28.15 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 32.60 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 36.66 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 39.79 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 43.47 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 54.48 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 44.42 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 51.85 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 48.62 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 57.38 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 55.77 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 49.23 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 49.05 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 53.43 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 59.56 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 54.16 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 41.12 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 42.02 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 45.30 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 49.32 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 56.45 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 54.40 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 50.92 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 52.15 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 42.10 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 44.88 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 45.99 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 51.00 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 43.77 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 46.20 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 45.88 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 37.38 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 41.98 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 50.90 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 57.76 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 64.10 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 64.85 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 59.80 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 55.69 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 52.80 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 61.15 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 59.90 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 58.67 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 58.50 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 53.83 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 48.75 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 44.21 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 53.70 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 58.67 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 57.42 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 53.04 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 46.20 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 44.20 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 39.16 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 51.54 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 43.92 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 44.96 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 45.23 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 43.48 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 53.01 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 52.88 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 47.40 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 44.09 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 38.93 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 39.29 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 43.29 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 39.30 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 38.82 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 37.79 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 34.78 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 33.50 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 31.25 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 26.50 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 27.44 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 30.30 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 23.71 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 28.70 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 28.32 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 28.09 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 28.08 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 6.78 per share, central CNY 7.62 per share, high CNY 8.72 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 8.15 per share, central CNY 9.12 per share, high CNY 10.41 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 11.14 per share, central CNY 12.45 per share, high CNY 14.19 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 15.75 per share, central CNY 17.47 per share, high CNY 19.76 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 17.65 per share, central CNY 19.47 per share, high CNY 21.88 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 27.56 per share, central CNY 37.81 per share, high CNY 43.52 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 32.08 per share, central CNY 42.10 per share, high CNY 48.34 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 35.12 per share, central CNY 47.57 per share, high CNY 54.82 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 37.37 per share, central CNY 50.63 per share, high CNY 58.35 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 25.54 per share, central CNY 31.49 per share, high CNY 35.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:08.380Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations