# SMC (6273.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6273.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:52.788Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 66,780.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 47,062.61 per share, central JPY 55,595.71 per share, high JPY 63,025.79 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 55,595.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:52.788Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.28×

- FY2021: 0.28×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.31×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.24×

- FY2026: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 45.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.5%

- FY2018: 22.1%

- FY2019: 17.2%

- FY2020: 14.6%

- FY2021: 14.5%

- FY2022: 18.6%

- FY2023: 17.3%

- FY2024: 10.0%

- FY2025: 11.3%

- FY2026: 9.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 903B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 920B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 30.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 84.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.5% vs 10.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1683.12 to 2640.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.58T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 835B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.8%

- Per-share value change: JPY 956.92

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 2K

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 3K

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.21

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 14B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.53T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 2K

- FY2018: JPY 2K

- FY2019: JPY 2K

- FY2020: JPY 2K

- FY2021: JPY 2K

- FY2022: JPY 3K

- FY2023: JPY 3K

- FY2024: JPY 3K

- FY2025: JPY 2K

- FY2026: JPY 3K

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.7%

- FY2018: -1.3%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: -1.0%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: 2.1%

- FY2023: 6.4%

- FY2024: 3.8%

- FY2025: -1.9%

- FY2026: -0.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 26% since Feb 2024 · sales +6.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.422Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf; observed 2026-06-26.

- FY2017: JPY 488B 

- FY2018: JPY 591B 

- FY2019: JPY 577B 

- FY2020: JPY 526B 

- FY2021: JPY 552B 

- FY2022: JPY 727B 

- FY2023: JPY 825B 

- FY2024: JPY 777B 

- FY2025: JPY 792B 

- FY2026: JPY 843B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 45.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf; observed 2026-06-26.

- FY2017: 49.9% 

- FY2018: 51.5% 

- FY2019: 51.5% 

- FY2020: 49.4% 

- FY2021: 48.1% 

- FY2022: 50.0% 

- FY2023: 51.1% 

- FY2024: 46.7% 

- FY2025: 45.8% 

- FY2026: 45.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 842.5 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: revenue 842541000000; grossProfit 381452000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45.3% to 46.7% during 2024–26; it earns 15.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 45.8%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 45.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.19534561520704852],[2018,0.22063271770894385],[2019,0.17193605638530368],[2020,0.14592731239484857],[2021,0.1450137175835991],[2022,0.18554273140252958],[2023,0.17299822289721284],[2024,0.10013250914532366],[2025,0.11302026356672103],[2026,0.09551577315303876]]; median 0.15893168439007613. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 65.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 4.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2017: growth capex 3712711019.264702; upkeep 20513288980.7353; owner earnings 106827711019.26471. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03475419424268271.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2018: growth capex 10264000000; upkeep 15252000000; owner earnings 136869000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07499141514879192.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 31319000000; owner earnings 115567000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 38979000000; owner earnings 88190000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2021: growth capex 8296929932.686085; upkeep 21000070067.313915; owner earnings 119374929932.68608. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06950311876509258.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2022: growth capex 57844145059.424286; upkeep 23086854940.575714; owner earnings 190461145059.4243. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.303705750804852.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2023: growth capex 34696320250.34679; upkeep 39680679749.65321; owner earnings 210695320250.3468. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16467532458300851.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2024: growth capex 70953000000; upkeep 33355000000; owner earnings 178321000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.39789480767828805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2025: growth capex 73494000000; upkeep 34308000000; owner earnings 156344000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.47007880059356294.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: growth capex 109539000000; upkeep 44846000000; owner earnings 167302000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6547381382171163.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Incremental return on capital 0.04316969948254247, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Dividend observations: [[2017,13438000000],[2018,26880000000],[2019,26882000000],[2020,26745000000],[2021,26607000000],[2022,39631000000],[2023,58776000000],[2024,58063000000],[2025,64048000000],[2026,63535000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: cash repurchases 30018000000 JPY.

### What could break it

"⑤ テロ、戦争、暴動、自然災害、感染症の蔓延などによる社会的混乱" (6273 filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); ⑤ テロ、戦争、暴動、自然災害、感染症の蔓延などによる社会的混乱

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06912733049952358. Price 66780; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1308.0321034709248 → FY2026 2640.04. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 32,520.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 27,905.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 30,910.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 31,850.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 32,920.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 31,390.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 35,010.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 34,150.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 35,110.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 37,710.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 39,690.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 43,240.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 45,470.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 46,380.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 53,520.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 45,030.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 43,070.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 41,720.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 41,430.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 40,630.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 37,480.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 36,970.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 36,360.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 36,150.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 38,480.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 33,240.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 35,730.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 38,750.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 41,530.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 46,060.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 35,770.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 40,170.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 39,860.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 40,140.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 46,100.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 47,190.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 49,610.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 50,290.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 48,230.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 43,070.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 45,750.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 49,000.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 54,370.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 55,180.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 55,070.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 58,250.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 58,460.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 55,300.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 66,320.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 62,950.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 63,360.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 62,900.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 64,310.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 63,450.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 65,520.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 65,650.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 64,800.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 70,510.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 70,080.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 67,940.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 72,650.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 77,590.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 63,390.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 68,050.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 68,840.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 63,050.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 66,610.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 60,470.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 65,410.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 66,600.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 58,220.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 60,120.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 61,760.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 55,580.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 65,350.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 69,100.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 69,830.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 67,750.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 75,080.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 79,480.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 74,150.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 70,600.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 66,980.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 68,680.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 74,450.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 75,760.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 82,910.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 90,150.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 84,980.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 83,520.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 78,810.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 76,340.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 74,150.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 67,000.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 63,650.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 66,200.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 63,540.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 62,180.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 58,880.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 54,000.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 53,070.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 46,470.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 54,150.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 52,040.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 52,700.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 45,600.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 45,430.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 52,570.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 54,880.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 54,460.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 60,150.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 75,420.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 59,870.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 76,080.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 69,110.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 71,280.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 70,480.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 70,710.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 72,120.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 72,850.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 25,511.80 per share, central JPY 27,892.04 per share, high JPY 31,060.66 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 29,095.99 per share, central JPY 31,802.12 per share, high JPY 35,404.54 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 36,379.72 per share, central JPY 39,970.06 per share, high JPY 44,749.56 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 46,483.98 per share, central JPY 62,414.46 per share, high JPY 71,690.80 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 42,665.39 per share, central JPY 56,991.12 per share, high JPY 65,567.20 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 45,098.21 per share, central JPY 57,450.08 per share, high JPY 65,523.88 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 31,147.00 per share, central JPY 34,047.87 per share, high JPY 37,778.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Historical value ranges retain the original capex calculation; the current filing judgement is not backfilled into historical valuations

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLC6.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations