# Ebara (6361.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6361.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:55.387Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,138.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,134.36 per share, central JPY 2,805.93 per share, high JPY 3,242.43 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,805.93 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:55.387Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.08×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.2%

- FY2017: 4.8%

- FY2018: 9.6%

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: 16.4%

- FY2021: 27.8%

- FY2022: 23.4%

- FY2023: 26.3%

- FY2024: 25.0%

- FY2025: 23.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 238B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 302B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 29.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -25.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 25.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.88×

- FY2022: 0.89×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.91×

- FY2025: 0.46×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.2% vs 25.0%

- Per-share earnings: 37.12 to 154.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.26T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 198B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 19.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY 117.50

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 37.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 154.62

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.33

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 64B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 375B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 42.74

- FY2017: JPY 18.77

- FY2018: JPY 35.99

- FY2019: JPY 0

- FY2020: JPY 50.87

- FY2021: JPY 92.69

- FY2022: JPY 109.72

- FY2023: JPY 130.73

- FY2024: JPY 154.62

- FY2025: JPY 166.31

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.53×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.2%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: -6.9%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: 1.6%

- FY2023: -1.1%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: 3.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Jun 2026 · sales +10.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.441Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XS6E.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: JPY 476B 

- FY2017: JPY 382B 

- FY2018: JPY 509B 

- FY2019: JPY 0 

- FY2020: JPY 522B 

- FY2021: JPY 603B 

- FY2022: JPY 681B 

- FY2023: JPY 759B 

- FY2024: JPY 867B 

- FY2025: JPY 958B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XS6E.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: 27.9% 

- FY2017: 25.3% 

- FY2018: 26.2% 

- FY2020: 28.0% 

- FY2021: 29.6% 

- FY2022: 31.0% 

- FY2023: 32.0% 

- FY2024: 33.1% 

- FY2025: 32.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are JPY 958.3 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XS6E.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: revenue 958285000000; grossProfit 311944000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32% to 33.1% during 2023–25; it earns 19.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 33.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XS6E.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09190280464216634],[2017,0.04750354014789951],[2018,0.09609808692034336],[2019,0.0990213983819342],[2020,0.164358816785167],[2021,0.27750569475714854],[2022,0.23424784362720422],[2023,0.2629364457265344],[2024,0.25016884362358516],[2025,0.22982943528890157]]; median 0.1970941260370343. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 64.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 29.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 12498000000; owner earnings 19699000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 12380000000; owner earnings 9074000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2018: growth capex 3304000000; upkeep 15266000000; owner earnings 18262000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18092213339174243.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2020: growth capex 11378000000; upkeep 19872000000; owner earnings 18508000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6147611843527123.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2021: growth capex 4320000000; upkeep 21435000000; owner earnings 38558000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11203900617251931.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2022: growth capex 279000000; upkeep 24068000000; owner earnings 45167000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0061770761839396015.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: growth capex 7877000000; upkeep 26590000000; owner earnings 54022000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14581096590278034.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: growth capex 20881000000; upkeep 30011000000; owner earnings 64830000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.32208853925651704.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XS6E.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: growth capex 22810802269.76599; upkeep 69403197730.23401; owner earnings 35510802269.76599. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6423623464341491.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Incremental return on capital 0.2961877818154545, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,6623000000],[2017,6093000000],[2018,4575000000],[2019,5877000000],[2020,5713000000],[2021,10455000000],[2022,18216000000],[2023,18943000000],[2024,22763000000],[2025,27718000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/EAR.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 20077000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13951116681990483. Price 4138; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 19.42491480236467 → FY2025 77.06603585250194. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 594.80 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 666.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 698.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 662.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 727.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 679.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 627.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 622.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 647.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 681.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 747.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 812.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 877.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 859.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 894.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 800.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 773.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 838.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 751.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 689.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 674.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 760.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 784.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 660.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 588.80 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 494.20 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 598.80 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 632.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 624.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 681.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 555.20 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 584.80 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 589.20 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 504.60 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 575.40 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 648.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 658.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 665.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 615.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 514.20 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 411.40 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 479.80 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 519.40 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 505.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 497.20 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 546.40 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 568.60 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 577.80 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 668.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 674.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 722.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 798.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 903.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 934.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,080.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,094.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,076.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,096.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,110.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,240.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,220.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,278.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,112.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,192.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,368.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,204.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,110.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,016.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,038.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,064.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 947.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 969.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,052.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 944.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,094.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,158.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,226.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,182.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,250.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,372.60 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,340.80 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,451.80 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,401.80 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,320.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,674.20 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,669.60 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,870.60 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,523.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,771.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,622.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,292.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,543.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,194.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,971.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,327.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,350.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,239.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,460.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,579.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,474.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,248.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,152.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,326.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,778.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,800.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,088.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,383.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,131.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,088.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,684.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,656.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,542.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,254.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,327.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,683.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,256.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,558.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 4,681.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,713.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,654.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 461.72 per share, central JPY 497.64 per share, high JPY 545.46 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,906.17 per share, central JPY 2,416.98 per share, high JPY 2,772.36 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,057.84 per share, central JPY 2,701.21 per share, high JPY 3,119.38 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XS6E.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations