# NSK (6471.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6471.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:58.587Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,019.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 766.93 per share, central JPY 843.53 per share, high JPY 939.11 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 843.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:58.587Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.3 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 18.1%

- FY2019: 14.5%

- FY2020: 4.8%

- FY2021: 1.1%

- FY2022: 4.1%

- FY2023: 6.5%

- FY2024: 3.6%

- FY2025: 3.7%

- FY2026: 4.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 80B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 77B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.62×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 0.35×

- FY2025: 0.71×

- FY2026: 1.02×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 121.38 to 21.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY -311B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 81B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -19.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY -99.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 121.38

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 21.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 265B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 86.08

- FY2018: JPY 131.16

- FY2019: JPY 107.46

- FY2020: JPY 34.00

- FY2021: JPY 0.69

- FY2022: JPY 32.35

- FY2023: JPY 35.89

- FY2024: JPY 17.27

- FY2025: JPY 21.78

- FY2026: JPY 46.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.1%

- FY2018: -1.3%

- FY2019: -3.4%

- FY2020: -5.3%

- FY2021: -4.6%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: -3.7%

- FY2024: -7.0%

- FY2025: -5.9%

- FY2026: -6.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Feb 2026 · sales +14.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.449Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +14.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFE3.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 949B 

- FY2018: JPY 1.02T 

- FY2019: JPY 991B 

- FY2020: JPY 831B 

- FY2021: JPY 748B 

- FY2022: JPY 865B 

- FY2023: JPY 777B 

- FY2024: JPY 789B 

- FY2025: JPY 797B 

- FY2026: JPY 912B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 21%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFE3.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: 22.8% 

- FY2019: 22.1% 

- FY2020: 18.5% 

- FY2021: 16.9% 

- FY2022: 19.6% 

- FY2023: 22.6% 

- FY2024: 20.9% 

- FY2025: 21.7% 

- FY2026: 21.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 911.6 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFE3.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 911644000000; grossProfit 191291000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.9% to 21.7% during 2024–26; it earns 4.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFE3.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 21%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.1814095884434958],[2019,0.1445131026641671],[2020,0.04826905689100936],[2021,0.011354366240482217],[2022,0.041082078253418405],[2023,0.06467614713259412],[2024,0.03618759095602403],[2025,0.03729680083558158],[2026,0.049431478625830055]]; median 0.04826905689100936. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 14612000000; upkeep 46785000000; owner earnings 69312000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21081486611265005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 73379000000; owner earnings 31231000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 47876000000; owner earnings 19305000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 33797000000; owner earnings 16676000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 41622000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 26801000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 51749000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 19403000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 4576000000; upkeep 54121000000; cash acquisitions 10917000000; owner earnings 2946000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 5.258995247793618.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 50355000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7606000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFE3.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 50734000000; owner earnings 23246000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2018,17438000000],[2019,21495000000],[2020,20483000000],[2021,10253000000],[2022,10259000000],[2023,15386000000],[2024,15037000000],[2025,15646000000],[2026,16630000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04997731570041386. Price 1019; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,246.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,354.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,374.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,602.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,592.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,520.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,320.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,403.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,428.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,305.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,517.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,691.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,774.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,796.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,609.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,426.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,470.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,239.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,143.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,215.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,261.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,302.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,118.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,067.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 949.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,059.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,023.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,037.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,150.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 873.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 960.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 927.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 852.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 910.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,016.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,058.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,041.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 931.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 827.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 694.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 748.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 788.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 799.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 700.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 813.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 801.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 829.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 845.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 896.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 947.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,043.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,135.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,006.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,039.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 939.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 899.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 772.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 761.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 765.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 771.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 738.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 777.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 744.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 736.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 719.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 733.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 730.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 742.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 758.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 707.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 786.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 760.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 701.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 728.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 754.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 756.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 764.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 845.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 917.40 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 918.90 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 849.30 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 841.20 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 805.30 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 775.10 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 763.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 809.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 819.90 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 882.90 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 868.10 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 769.90 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 781.70 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 795.70 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 750.70 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 720.90 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 701.40 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 658.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 686.90 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 675.20 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 629.90 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 638.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 624.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 649.90 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 678.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 725.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 779.40 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 764.40 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 779.40 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 918.80 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 975.80 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,074.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,408.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,087.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,268.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,249.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,136.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,152.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,109.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,098.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,076.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 805.76 per share, central JPY 884.53 per share, high JPY 989.40 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 695.21 per share, central JPY 752.21 per share, high JPY 828.09 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 680.70 per share, central JPY 736.80 per share, high JPY 811.48 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 647.58 per share, central JPY 702.37 per share, high JPY 775.30 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 766.93 per share, central JPY 843.53 per share, high JPY 939.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:58.587Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFE3.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations