# Fanuc (6954.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6954.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:10.280Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,907.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,826.38 per share, central JPY 3,107.22 per share, high JPY 3,481.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,107.22 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:10.280Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.32×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.7%

- FY2018: 23.5%

- FY2019: 14.9%

- FY2020: 7.9%

- FY2021: 10.0%

- FY2022: 14.6%

- FY2023: 13.3%

- FY2024: 9.1%

- FY2025: 10.9%

- FY2026: 12.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 815B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 773B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -3.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 15.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 52.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 1.04×

- FY2026: 1.16×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.7% vs 10.9%

- Per-share earnings: 163.36 to 157.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 523B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 314B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -0.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY -6.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 163.36

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 157.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.16

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 8.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.40T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 131.73

- FY2018: JPY 187.73

- FY2019: JPY 159.07

- FY2020: JPY 76.38

- FY2021: JPY 98.02

- FY2022: JPY 161.90

- FY2023: JPY 178.55

- FY2024: JPY 140.23

- FY2025: JPY 157.31

- FY2026: JPY 178.47

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.51×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.4%

- FY2018: 0.3%

- FY2019: -1.5%

- FY2020: -4.7%

- FY2021: -1.5%

- FY2022: 1.7%

- FY2023: 3.8%

- FY2024: -2.0%

- FY2025: -5.6%

- FY2026: -4.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 25% since May 2026 · sales +7.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.544Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 537B 

- FY2018: JPY 727B 

- FY2019: JPY 636B 

- FY2020: JPY 508B 

- FY2021: JPY 551B 

- FY2022: JPY 733B 

- FY2023: JPY 852B 

- FY2024: JPY 795B 

- FY2025: JPY 797B 

- FY2026: JPY 858B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 38.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 43.5% 

- FY2018: 45.2% 

- FY2019: 41.8% 

- FY2020: 35.8% 

- FY2021: 36.6% 

- FY2022: 40.3% 

- FY2023: 38.2% 

- FY2024: 34.7% 

- FY2025: 37.0% 

- FY2026: 38.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 857.8 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 857831000000; grossProfit 328466000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 34.7% to 38.3% during 2024–26; it earns 12.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 38.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1970808190023151],[2018,0.23502895527487125],[2019,0.14858841389092883],[2020,0.07947711281786302],[2021,0.10030263592626412],[2022,0.14594486582495578],[2023,0.1331594979249274],[2024,0.09069338716038612],[2025,0.10929596219060339],[2026,0.12316773721858636]]; median 0.12816361757175687. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 553 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 87509000000; owner earnings 66718000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 68826000000; upkeep 34190000000; owner earnings 181957000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3782542029160736.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 125324000000; owner earnings 68548000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 75429000000; owner earnings 43855000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 21768000000; owner earnings 117346000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 34363000000; owner earnings 167987000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 47066000000; owner earnings 172710000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 53884000000; owner earnings 128276000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 40805000000; owner earnings 153200000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 21181000000; owner earnings 193144000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,76505000000],[2018,92003000000],[2019,173571000000],[2020,102546000000],[2021,50484000000],[2022,86799000000],[2023,96485000000],[2024,90096000000],[2025,83133000000],[2026,94459000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 553000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14351509966853543. Price 5907; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 80.60191664370694 → FY2026 206.9760342974487. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,861.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,963.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,433.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 4,425.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 4,564.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 4,531.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 4,354.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 4,331.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 4,513.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 4,268.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,558.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 5,274.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 5,589.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 5,412.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 5,895.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 5,462.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 5,392.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,712.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,654.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 4,401.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,384.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,355.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 4,284.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,947.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,878.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,334.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,672.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,688.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,776.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 4,155.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,695.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,986.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,906.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,691.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,068.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 4,320.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,181.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,066.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,064.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,594.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,931.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,566.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,843.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,852.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 3,541.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 3,721.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 4,024.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 4,410.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 5,073.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 5,072.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 5,473.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 5,268.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 5,237.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 5,035.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 5,260.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 5,359.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 4,876.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 4,798.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 4,913.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 4,462.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 4,449.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 4,876.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 4,492.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 4,231.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,329.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 4,033.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 4,221.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 4,248.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,565.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,507.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 4,052.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,926.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,073.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,967.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 4,581.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 4,634.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 4,760.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 4,589.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 4,798.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 5,032.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 4,348.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 4,153.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,893.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,653.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 4,114.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 4,147.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 4,117.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,372.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,187.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,627.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,399.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,409.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,510.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,287.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 4,190.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,117.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,887.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,175.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,659.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,309.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,060.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,654.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,868.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,940.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,271.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,178.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,262.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,909.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,026.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 6,084.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 6,269.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,113.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,302.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,875.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 7,892.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 7,355.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 7,135.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 6,055.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,943.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 6,289.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,262.41 per share, central JPY 1,361.49 per share, high JPY 1,493.38 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,380.95 per share, central JPY 1,488.59 per share, high JPY 1,631.87 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,389.79 per share, central JPY 2,634.96 per share, high JPY 2,961.34 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,848.45 per share, central JPY 3,638.04 per share, high JPY 4,169.18 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,746.08 per share, central JPY 3,528.48 per share, high JPY 4,040.16 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,581.38 per share, central JPY 2,936.03 per share, high JPY 3,313.60 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,826.38 per share, central JPY 3,107.22 per share, high JPY 3,481.09 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YG3Q.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations