# Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7011.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:11.539Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,601.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 906.52 per share, central JPY 1,016.67 per share, high JPY 1,123.67 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,016.67 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:11.539Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.4% at the stated quote. About 4.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.67×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: -0.01×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.0%

- FY2018: 1.7%

- FY2019: 7.2%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: 5.2%

- FY2022: 11.8%

- FY2023: 12.4%

- FY2024: 15.4%

- FY2025: 16.9%

- FY2026: 22.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.28T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.04T

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.81×

- FY2023: 0.92×

- FY2024: 0.86×

- FY2025: 0.56×

- FY2026: 2.21×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.0% vs 16.9%

- Per-share earnings: 19.02 to 73.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 12.69T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.04T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 18.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY 54.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 19.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 73.04

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.30

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 166B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.36T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 26.12

- FY2018: JPY -2.18

- FY2019: JPY 32.85

- FY2020: JPY 25.94

- FY2021: JPY 12.09

- FY2022: JPY 33.82

- FY2023: JPY 38.84

- FY2024: JPY 66.07

- FY2025: JPY 73.04

- FY2026: JPY 98.86

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.2%

- FY2018: -7.9%

- FY2019: -5.9%

- FY2020: -7.3%

- FY2021: 2.8%

- FY2022: -3.4%

- FY2023: 0.9%

- FY2024: -1.7%

- FY2025: -4.3%

- FY2026: -7.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Feb 2026 · sales +14.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.571Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +14.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHZG.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 3.91T 

- FY2018: JPY 4.09T 

- FY2019: JPY 4.08T 

- FY2020: JPY 4.04T 

- FY2021: JPY 3.70T 

- FY2022: JPY 3.86T 

- FY2023: JPY 4.20T 

- FY2024: JPY 4.66T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.36T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.97T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 21.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHZG.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 18.7% 

- FY2018: 17.6% 

- FY2019: 18.9% 

- FY2020: 17.6% 

- FY2021: 15.8% 

- FY2022: 17.0% 

- FY2023: 18.2% 

- FY2024: 20.0% 

- FY2025: 20.0% 

- FY2026: 21.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are JPY 5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHZG.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 4974168000000; grossProfit 1082674000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20% to 21.8% during 2024–26; it earns 9.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHZG.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 21.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04989498658459354],[2018,0.017476148540384262],[2019,0.07210383523672784],[2020,-0.02160831403430364],[2021,0.05174047031944592],[2022,0.117578144663097],[2023,0.12387538434178706],[2024,0.1537049732847168],[2025,0.1687083581204789],[2026,0.22285286863182352]]; median 0.09484098994991241. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 200185000000; owner earnings 64870538954.007484. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 224263000000; owner earnings 76049491374.79256. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 246291000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 141543000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 146212000000; cash acquisitions 71082000000; owner earnings 110018000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6460942754821938.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 129256000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 91918000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 131905000000; cash acquisitions 2557000000; owner earnings 120245000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.021264917460185453.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 4587000000; upkeep 155899000000; cash acquisitions 73589000000; owner earnings 191643000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.40792515249709094.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 240692000000; cash acquisitions 2984000000; owner earnings 137564000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.021691721671367507.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHZG.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 181064000000; owner earnings 733700000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,40283000000],[2018,40206000000],[2019,41888000000],[2020,46933000000],[2021,25667000000],[2022,40224000000],[2023,38531000000],[2024,50289000000],[2025,77165000000],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 27.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.32136021939870985. Price 3601; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 19.017 → FY2026 218.38978830514648. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 506.80 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 532.60 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 508.90 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 444.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 446.60 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 446.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 436.70 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 459.80 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 439.30 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 420.90 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 444.90 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 441.90 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 415.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 421.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 410.20 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 438.20 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 407.40 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 432.60 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 412.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 403.10 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 418.70 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 412.60 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 438.70 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 398.90 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 431.70 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 395.60 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 420.30 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 453.10 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 459.80 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 462.10 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 476.30 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 469.10 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 450.80 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 399.20 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 423.20 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 440.20 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 418.80 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 424.80 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 402.40 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 341.90 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 273.25 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 276.35 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 278.75 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 254.30 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 244.65 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 263.35 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 233.05 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 223.45 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 235.15 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 315.60 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 299.80 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 306.80 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 344.90 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 324.70 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 331.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 326.90 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 314.40 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 290.90 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 302.40 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 290.90 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 256.10 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 265.90 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 309.90 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 339.60 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 402.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 443.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 489.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 474.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 492.10 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 537.40 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 480.60 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 512.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 545.70 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 523.40 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 508.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 501.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 487.60 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 512.70 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 590.60 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 671.10 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 673.10 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 827.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 834.60 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 769.20 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 826.80 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 824.10 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 994.20 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,182.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,428.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,417.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,368.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,723.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,830.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,942.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,117.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,193.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,197.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,223.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,296.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,987.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,526.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,796.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,352.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,610.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,630.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,753.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,879.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,653.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,947.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,840.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,519.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,014.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,223.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,615.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,806.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,666.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,764.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,889.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,839.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,716.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2023: low JPY 515.78 per share, central JPY 637.60 per share, high JPY 731.79 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 551.05 per share, central JPY 613.16 per share, high JPY 695.83 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 591.59 per share, central JPY 649.75 per share, high JPY 727.16 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 906.52 per share, central JPY 1,016.67 per share, high JPY 1,123.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHZG.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations