# Nikon (7731.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7731.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:29.925Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,785.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 993.53 per share, central JPY 1,069.98 per share, high JPY 1,171.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,069.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:29.925Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 7 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 7

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 5.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: -0.12×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.00×

- FY2026: -0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -14.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.8 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 12.7%

- FY2019: 20.4%

- FY2020: 1.4%

- FY2021: -14.8%

- FY2022: 11.1%

- FY2023: 9.0%

- FY2024: 5.3%

- FY2025: 0.4%

- FY2026: -14.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY -44B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 40B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 5.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.82×

- FY2024: 0.54×

- FY2025: -4.65×

- FY2026: 1.24×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 75.55 to 17.86 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Market cap gain: JPY -18B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -11B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -16.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY -57.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 75.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 17.86

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 119B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 10.01

- FY2018: JPY 87.76

- FY2019: JPY 167.86

- FY2020: JPY 19.93

- FY2021: JPY -93.96

- FY2022: JPY 116.23

- FY2023: JPY 125.46

- FY2024: JPY 94.03

- FY2025: JPY 17.86

- FY2026: JPY -261.57

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.6%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.2%

- FY2018: -8.2%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: -0.9%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: 1.1%

- FY2023: 4.3%

- FY2024: 0.2%

- FY2025: -3.8%

- FY2026: -7.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Jun 2026 · sales -5.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.627Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -5.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKBP.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 749B 

- FY2018: JPY 717B 

- FY2019: JPY 709B 

- FY2020: JPY 591B 

- FY2021: JPY 451B 

- FY2022: JPY 540B 

- FY2023: JPY 628B 

- FY2024: JPY 717B 

- FY2025: JPY 715B 

- FY2026: JPY 677B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 40.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKBP.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2018: 43.6% 

- FY2019: 42.8% 

- FY2020: 37.6% 

- FY2021: 34.6% 

- FY2022: 43.7% 

- FY2023: 46.0% 

- FY2024: 43.2% 

- FY2025: 43.6% 

- FY2026: 40.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 677.2 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKBP.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 677163000000; grossProfit 277261000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 40.9% to 43.6% during 2024–26; it earns 5.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.6%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKBP.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 40.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.12729944801406956],[2019,0.2038176637778826],[2020,0.013954617671851077],[2021,-0.148440238544677],[2022,0.11090930797913529],[2023,0.08980200372973693],[2024,0.05347477100133425],[2025,0.004143726753556043],[2026,-0.1435794856709697]]; median 0.05347477100133425. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 35734000000; owner earnings 30744000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 28393000000; owner earnings 65127000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 25431000000; owner earnings 9173000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 23825000000; cash acquisitions 378000000; owner earnings 36273000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.010420974278388884.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 3967000000; upkeep 29056000000; cash acquisitions 76869000000; owner earnings 36899000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.190736876338112.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 15752786724.28669; upkeep 39462213275.71331; cash acquisitions 2289000000; owner earnings 17684786724.28669. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.020186842259722.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2018,7153000000],[2019,20621000000],[2020,23552000000],[2021,7350000000],[2022,11024000000],[2023,14522000000],[2024,17310000000],[2025,17321000000],[2026,16447000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13720721204296266. Price 1785.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,680.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,817.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,825.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,717.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,614.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,590.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,707.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,796.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,945.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,813.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,951.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,143.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,227.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,117.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,182.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,896.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,908.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,765.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,763.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,882.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,127.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,135.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,967.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,780.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,635.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,864.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,561.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,550.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,486.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,524.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,478.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,315.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,348.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,390.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,501.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,344.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,339.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,109.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 998.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,007.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 990.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 902.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 734.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 832.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 708.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 629.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 649.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 651.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 832.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 945.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,035.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,028.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,122.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,185.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,013.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,159.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,250.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,249.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,177.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,240.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,186.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,193.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,314.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,471.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,605.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,569.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,522.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,593.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,367.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,439.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,334.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,176.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,276.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,350.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,355.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,396.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,549.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,857.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,876.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,574.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,576.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,416.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,424.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,396.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,517.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,480.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,532.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,641.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,626.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,735.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,559.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,485.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,908.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,767.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,639.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,670.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,562.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,482.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,369.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,459.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,480.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,473.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,668.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,725.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,802.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,806.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,744.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,940.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,997.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,888.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,727.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,844.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,909.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,929.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,937.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,847.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 1,667.67 per share, central JPY 1,762.62 per share, high JPY 1,889.03 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,680.72 per share, central JPY 1,835.95 per share, high JPY 2,042.59 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,113.23 per share, central JPY 1,190.17 per share, high JPY 1,292.60 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 997.73 per share, central JPY 1,075.26 per share, high JPY 1,178.46 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 993.53 per share, central JPY 1,069.98 per share, high JPY 1,171.76 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:29.925Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKBP.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations