# Hoya (7741.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7741.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:30.207Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 24,955.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 11,267.02 per share, central JPY 15,056.26 per share, high JPY 17,377.84 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 15,056.26 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:30.207Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.1% at the stated quote. About 7.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.46×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.26×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.32×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.30×

- FY2026: 0.35×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 43.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 37.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 86.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 90.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 37.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 73.4%

- FY2018: 39.8%

- FY2019: 42.2%

- FY2020: 37.5%

- FY2021: 37.2%

- FY2022: 45.3%

- FY2023: 43.4%

- FY2024: 43.8%

- FY2025: 47.7%

- FY2026: 58.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 964B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 970B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 159.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.04×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 0.96×

- FY2026: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.2% vs 47.7%

- Per-share earnings: 230.28 to 581.45 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 6.94T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 396B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 12.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY 351.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 230.28

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 581.45

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 21B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.52T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 47.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 222.54

- FY2018: JPY 260.84

- FY2019: JPY 320.11

- FY2020: JPY 302.38

- FY2021: JPY 336.47

- FY2022: JPY 444.97

- FY2023: JPY 472.43

- FY2024: JPY 516.80

- FY2025: JPY 581.45

- FY2026: JPY 743.93

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.10×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -5.5%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: -6.0%

- FY2021: -3.1%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -3.2%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: -2.7%

- FY2026: -1.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years · sales +9.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.639Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y90T.pdf; observed 2026-06-05.

- FY2017: JPY 479B 

- FY2018: JPY 536B 

- FY2019: JPY 566B 

- FY2020: JPY 577B 

- FY2021: JPY 548B 

- FY2022: JPY 661B 

- FY2023: JPY 724B 

- FY2024: JPY 763B 

- FY2025: JPY 866B 

- FY2026: JPY 948B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 90.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y90T.pdf; observed 2026-06-05.

- FY2017: 86.1% 

- FY2018: 85.3% 

- FY2019: 86.3% 

- FY2020: 84.7% 

- FY2021: 18.5% 

- FY2022: 85.8% 

- FY2023: 87.3% 

- FY2024: 90.2% 

- FY2025: 88.5% 

- FY2026: 90.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in medical instruments & supplies; annual sales are JPY 947.7 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y90T.pdf (filed 2026-06-05); FY2026: revenue 947749000000; grossProfit 859940000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 88.5% to 90.7% during 2024–26; it earns 43.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/HYB.F.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-06-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 90.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/HYB.F.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-06-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 88.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/HYB.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-05); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 90.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.7340273290080415],[2018,0.3978191660922549],[2019,0.42243896241567347],[2020,0.37486703740581045],[2021,0.37198280858334926],[2022,0.45301491188886034],[2023,0.4344351488671043],[2024,0.4377577742498318],[2025,0.4771300514546066],[2026,0.5824134927040995]]; median 0.43609646155846804. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 172 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/HYB.F.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 21528000000; owner earnings 94989000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 17974000000; cash acquisitions 251000000; owner earnings 110231000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.002277036405366911.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2019: growth capex 256000000; upkeep 26416000000; cash acquisitions 421000000; owner earnings 122103000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.005544499316151118.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2020: growth capex 2352743153.6057816; upkeep 42824256846.39422; cash acquisitions 542000000; owner earnings 98408743153.60577. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0294155078181152.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 31246000000; cash acquisitions 800000000; owner earnings 123263000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.006490187647550359.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 28872000000; cash acquisitions 2102000000; owner earnings 170437000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.012333002810422619.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 33473000000; cash acquisitions 757000000; owner earnings 176162000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.00429718100384873.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 41074000000; cash acquisitions 335000000; owner earnings 178645000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0018752274063086008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 47922000000; cash acquisitions 243000000; owner earnings 193688000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0012545950187931106.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y90T.pdf (filed 2026-06-05); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 56581000000; cash acquisitions 66000000; owner earnings 245022000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0002693635673531356.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); Dividend observations: [[2017,29447000000],[2018,29042000000],[2019,34141000000],[2020,34042000000],[2021,33720000000],[2022,33201000000],[2023,39794000000],[2024,38778000000],[2025,38417000000],[2026,81903000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/HYB.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-05); FY2026: cash repurchases 171970000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23910508890177218. Price 24955; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 281.02542434208834 → FY2026 720.2292370547444. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 4,499.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 4,911.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,922.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 5,084.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 5,356.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 5,324.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 5,454.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 5,833.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 6,226.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 6,295.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 6,075.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 6,139.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 5,448.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 5,628.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 5,569.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 5,671.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 5,305.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 5,862.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 6,473.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 6,299.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 6,700.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 6,497.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 6,750.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 6,414.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 6,900.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 6,615.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 6,298.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 6,805.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 7,309.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 7,815.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 7,558.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 8,254.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 8,405.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 8,649.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 8,819.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 9,603.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 9,990.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 10,450.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 10,600.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 9,609.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 9,200.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 9,866.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 10,110.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 10,260.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 10,420.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 10,415.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 11,860.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 11,800.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 13,910.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 14,270.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 13,395.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 12,100.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 13,005.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 12,435.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 14,350.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 14,730.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 15,405.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 17,780.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 17,475.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 16,725.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 18,020.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 17,110.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 14,755.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 14,855.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 14,030.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 12,990.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 13,810.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 11,585.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 13,270.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 14,250.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 13,880.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 13,875.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 14,060.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 12,705.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 14,200.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 13,470.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 14,560.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 14,210.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 17,565.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 17,075.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 16,530.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 16,155.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 15,325.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 14,335.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 16,665.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 17,625.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 18,945.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 19,485.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 18,775.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 18,470.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 19,060.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 18,705.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 18,940.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 20,595.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 19,785.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 20,725.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 19,260.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 19,815.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 20,975.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 17,495.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 16,780.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 16,780.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 17,115.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 17,155.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 19,180.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 19,250.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 20,475.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 25,085.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 23,450.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 23,685.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 25,870.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 28,265.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 26,550.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 29,100.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 27,080.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 25,950.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 24,675.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 24,600.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 23,580.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 25,690.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 3,707.92 per share, central JPY 4,134.17 per share, high JPY 4,701.60 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 4,076.34 per share, central JPY 4,536.41 per share, high JPY 5,148.87 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 4,237.82 per share, central JPY 4,710.44 per share, high JPY 5,339.61 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 4,174.73 per share, central JPY 4,630.54 per share, high JPY 5,237.32 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 5,318.94 per share, central JPY 5,900.82 per share, high JPY 6,675.43 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 7,296.10 per share, central JPY 9,952.77 per share, high JPY 11,499.76 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 8,498.27 per share, central JPY 11,249.18 per share, high JPY 12,946.07 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 9,477.32 per share, central JPY 12,476.04 per share, high JPY 14,374.03 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 11,047.17 per share, central JPY 14,762.47 per share, high JPY 17,038.75 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y90T.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations