# Canon (7751.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7751.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:30.524Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,771.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,965.98 per share, central JPY 5,575.61 per share, high JPY 6,387.16 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 5,575.61 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:30.524Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.4% at the stated quote. About 11.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.3%

- FY2017: 15.2%

- FY2018: 14.1%

- FY2019: 6.6%

- FY2020: 4.6%

- FY2021: 11.7%

- FY2022: 11.9%

- FY2023: 11.3%

- FY2024: 11.0%

- FY2025: 11.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.44T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.22T

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.32×

- FY2022: 1.29×

- FY2023: 1.14×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.1% vs 11.3%

- Per-share earnings: 201.65 to 264.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 588B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 585B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY 62.55

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 201.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 264.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.10

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 778B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.07T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 137.66

- FY2017: JPY 223.03

- FY2018: JPY 233.80

- FY2019: JPY 116.79

- FY2020: JPY 79.37

- FY2021: JPY 205.35

- FY2022: JPY 236.71

- FY2023: JPY 264.20

- FY2024: JPY 165.53

- FY2025: JPY 367.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.43×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.36×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.8%

- FY2017: -6.7%

- FY2018: -2.3%

- FY2019: -4.9%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -5.0%

- FY2022: -0.4%

- FY2023: -3.4%

- FY2024: -7.7%

- FY2025: -2.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.3% a year for ten years · sales +2.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.644Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2016: JPY 3.40T 

- FY2017: JPY 4.08T 

- FY2018: JPY 3.95T 

- FY2019: JPY 3.59T 

- FY2020: JPY 3.16T 

- FY2021: JPY 3.51T 

- FY2022: JPY 4.03T 

- FY2023: JPY 4.18T 

- FY2024: JPY 4.51T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.62T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2016: 49.2% 

- FY2017: 48.8% 

- FY2018: 46.4% 

- FY2019: 44.8% 

- FY2020: 43.5% 

- FY2021: 46.3% 

- FY2022: 45.3% 

- FY2023: 47.1% 

- FY2024: 47.5% 

- FY2025: 46.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in computer hardware; annual sales are JPY 4.6 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: revenue 4624727000000; grossProfit 2161955000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.7% to 47.5% during 2023–25; it earns 11.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08310732430367178],[2017,0.15210023521335894],[2018,0.14068624448754916],[2019,0.06591024137541122],[2020,0.04630999687200222],[2021,0.11687275618190396],[2022,0.11876890674220339],[2023,0.11272880411594613],[2024,0.11007255562534499],[2025,0.11804522551797003]]; median 0.11480078014892504. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 45% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.46331528506781405],[2022,0.4533898031807202],[2023,0.47092159430869185]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 0.2% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 206971000000; owner earnings 193459000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 189484000000; owner earnings 401073000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 191399000000; owner earnings 312596000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 178088000000; owner earnings 184203000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 132302000000; owner earnings 178841000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 151914000000; owner earnings 284050000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 156593000000; cash acquisitions 5890000000; owner earnings 313860000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01876632893646849.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 201140000000; cash acquisitions 54570000000; owner earnings 302049000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18066605087254053.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 219202000000; cash acquisitions 32672000000; owner earnings 176288000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18533309130513706.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 211673000000; cash acquisitions 878000000; owner earnings 359616000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.002441493148247019.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,163810000000],[2017,162887000000],[2018,167024062000],[2019,171487000000],[2020,126938000000],[2021,88891000000],[2022,119326000000],[2023,130870000000],[2024,141530000000],[2025,147644000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/CNN1.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 300019000000 JPY.

### What could break it

"②-１．サプライチェーンに関連するリスク" (7751 filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); ②-１．サプライチェーンに関連するリスク

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03093270809162435. Price 4771; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 203.08493476651728 → FY2025 397.98371850276914. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,261.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,295.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,345.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,281.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,471.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,696.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,780.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,816.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,837.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,854.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,845.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,243.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,298.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,200.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,349.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 4,096.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,853.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,790.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,714.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,631.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,617.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,563.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,610.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,222.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,220.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,001.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,114.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,201.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,213.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,089.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,065.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,146.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,970.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,761.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,882.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,962.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,030.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,986.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,886.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,733.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,359.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,284.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,219.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,134.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,676.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,832.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,746.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,800.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,853.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,978.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,294.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,292.50 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,502.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,603.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,560.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,513.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,496.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,611.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,740.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,558.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,500.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,801.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,708.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,698.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,993.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,995.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,242.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,085.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,141.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 3,335.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,172.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,154.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 3,212.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,855.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,893.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,940.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,955.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,238.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,461.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,790.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,673.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,588.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,605.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,551.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,807.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,620.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 4,080.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,377.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,522.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,280.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,552.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,354.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,742.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 5,017.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 4,703.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 5,004.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,868.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 5,161.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 5,018.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 5,063.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,645.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,404.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,432.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,189.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,300.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,350.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,337.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,433.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,606.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,633.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,685.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,762.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,357.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,007.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 4,228.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 4,147.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 4,428.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 4,675.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,605.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,756.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 3,573.45 per share, central JPY 4,009.75 per share, high JPY 4,590.57 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 2,460.77 per share, central JPY 2,756.12 per share, high JPY 3,149.30 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 2,199.65 per share, central JPY 2,457.69 per share, high JPY 2,801.19 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 3,221.72 per share, central JPY 3,622.26 per share, high JPY 4,155.47 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 3,867.29 per share, central JPY 4,706.64 per share, high JPY 5,444.11 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,851.61 per share, central JPY 4,643.14 per share, high JPY 5,360.65 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,109.17 per share, central JPY 4,617.06 per share, high JPY 5,293.18 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,896.20 per share, central JPY 5,495.98 per share, high JPY 6,294.41 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTLJ.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations