# TOPPAN Holdings (7911.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7911.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:34.468Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,234.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,054.28 per share, central JPY 2,315.52 per share, high JPY 2,579.40 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,315.52 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:34.468Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.4% at the stated quote. About 10.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.3%

- FY2018: 3.8%

- FY2019: 2.8%

- FY2020: 4.1%

- FY2021: 3.5%

- FY2022: 4.7%

- FY2023: 5.2%

- FY2024: 5.0%

- FY2025: 5.7%

- FY2026: 3.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 330B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 413B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.43×

- FY2026: 0.42×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.8% vs 5.0%

- Per-share earnings: 55.04 to 230.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -7.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY -142B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 347B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -7.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 19.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY 175.92

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 55.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 230.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.24

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 262B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 698B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 50.75

- FY2018: JPY 131.32

- FY2019: JPY 127.55

- FY2020: JPY 261.06

- FY2021: JPY 237.16

- FY2022: JPY 365.21

- FY2023: JPY 185.07

- FY2024: JPY 230.96

- FY2025: JPY 298.62

- FY2026: JPY 227.07

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.21×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: -1.4%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: -0.2%

- FY2021: 0.2%

- FY2022: 2.6%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: 0.9%

- FY2026: -0.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.4% a year for ten years · sales +5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.653Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 1.43T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.45T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.46T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.49T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.47T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.55T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.64T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.68T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.72T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.81T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 23.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 18.8% 

- FY2018: 18.9% 

- FY2019: 18.8% 

- FY2020: 20.2% 

- FY2021: 20.5% 

- FY2022: 21.6% 

- FY2023: 22.1% 

- FY2024: 23.1% 

- FY2025: 24.0% 

- FY2026: 23.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 1805033000000; grossProfit 424250000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.1% to 24% during 2024–26; it earns 4.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 23.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 23.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04346995955857469],[2018,0.037638355670314316],[2019,0.027677256126745743],[2020,0.04137409468372199],[2021,0.034954976298982254],[2022,0.04651743923456944],[2023,0.05207181672984599],[2024,0.04982368065147281],[2025,0.056726491903382276],[2026,0.034506577080358126]]; median 0.04242202712114834. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 22% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.2054637731051478],[2022,0.21632107360553862],[2023,0.22098773944630112]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 1.7% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 61225000000; owner earnings 30527587962.750584. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 7863804109.998108; upkeep 80327195890.00189; owner earnings 24852379501.245518. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3164205708996195.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 4480955587.849731; upkeep 69505044412.15027; owner earnings 32058914651.78849. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13977252931111783.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 8064182179.196869; upkeep 73336817820.80313; owner earnings 69663182179.19687. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11575960108243563.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 68799000000; owner earnings 76199000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 55268000000; owner earnings 132109000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 13295000000; upkeep 70800000000; owner earnings 60866000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21843065093812639.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 15014511850.709854; upkeep 86889488149.29015; owner earnings 70357511850.70985. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21340311014080252.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 15363435719.454453; upkeep 129350564280.54555; owner earnings 38787435719.45445. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3960931016573668.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 31370121402.90912; upkeep 116585878597.09088; owner earnings 27439121402.90912. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.143262604595759.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.01658249451158593, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,12244000000],[2018,12960000000],[2019,12953000000],[2020,13292000000],[2021,20894000000],[2022,13619000000],[2023,15315000000],[2024,15621000000],[2025,14918000000],[2026,17440000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 30030000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0075320840364815345. Price 2234; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 46.53693250345111 → FY2026 96.14977078993492. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,037.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,116.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,109.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,132.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,135.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,121.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,220.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,232.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,166.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,101.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,116.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,148.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,046.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,019.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,025.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 919.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 873.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 916.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 888.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 868.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 859.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 867.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 912.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 799.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 914.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 808.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 890.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 886.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 835.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 900.50 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 793.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 817.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 889.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 846.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 956.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,005.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,088.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,130.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,098.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 940.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 828.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 806.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 921.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 898.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 791.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 824.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 739.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 661.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 712.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 727.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 744.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 836.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 935.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 931.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 959.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 892.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 924.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 945.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 951.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 916.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 861.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,078.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,088.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,128.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,083.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,076.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,212.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,133.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,128.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,095.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,077.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,109.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,066.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 977.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,043.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,231.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,332.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,441.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,491.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,550.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,671.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,760.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,787.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,726.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,732.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,967.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,044.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,781.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,936.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,874.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,035.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,216.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,137.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,191.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,122.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,257.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,003.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,104.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,184.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,211.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,027.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,999.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,925.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,962.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,046.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,915.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,897.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,890.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,519.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,330.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,382.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,682.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,052.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,325.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,281.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,552.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,263.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,546.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,362.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,342.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,047.32 per share, central JPY 2,190.54 per share, high JPY 2,381.20 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,501.80 per share, central JPY 2,641.74 per share, high JPY 2,828.04 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 3,636.81 per share, central JPY 3,960.96 per share, high JPY 4,392.47 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 4,599.08 per share, central JPY 5,936.63 per share, high JPY 6,721.89 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,961.90 per share, central JPY 6,388.62 per share, high JPY 7,219.40 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 5,711.85 per share, central JPY 7,103.07 per share, high JPY 7,913.18 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,108.56 per share, central JPY 4,631.04 per share, high JPY 5,158.81 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIAY.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations