# Yamaha (7951.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7951.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:35.641Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,216.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 813.39 per share, central JPY 895.01 per share, high JPY 1,003.67 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 895.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:35.641Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.7% at the stated quote. About 7.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.0 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 16.4%

- FY2018: 12.7%

- FY2019: 14.5%

- FY2020: 13.1%

- FY2021: 9.2%

- FY2022: 13.7%

- FY2023: 9.9%

- FY2024: 5.6%

- FY2025: 3.6%

- FY2026: 5.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.84×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 119B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 142B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -18.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 38.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.91×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 0.78×

- FY2025: 0.42×

- FY2026: 1.03×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.5% vs 5.1%

- Per-share earnings: 168.90 to 52.70 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 305B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 123B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -13.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY -116.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 168.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 52.70

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 3.9%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 6.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 290B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 249.17

- FY2018: JPY 0

- FY2019: JPY 222.12

- FY2020: JPY 194.71

- FY2021: JPY 50.46

- FY2022: JPY 71.62

- FY2023: JPY 74.21

- FY2024: JPY 58.56

- FY2025: JPY 27.58

- FY2026: JPY 52.70

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.93×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.5%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: 0.9%

- FY2020: -4.8%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: 0.2%

- FY2023: 8.9%

- FY2024: -2.1%

- FY2025: -7.1%

- FY2026: -3.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 49% since Oct 2021 · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.669Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 408B 

- FY2018: JPY 0 

- FY2019: JPY 434B 

- FY2020: JPY 414B 

- FY2021: JPY 373B 

- FY2022: JPY 408B 

- FY2023: JPY 451B 

- FY2024: JPY 463B 

- FY2025: JPY 462B 

- FY2026: JPY 465B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 37.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: 40.6% 

- FY2019: 41.2% 

- FY2020: 40.6% 

- FY2021: 38.4% 

- FY2022: 37.9% 

- FY2023: 37.9% 

- FY2024: 37.0% 

- FY2025: 38.1% 

- FY2026: 37.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 465.3 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 465330000000; grossProfit 174971000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37% to 38.1% during 2024–26; it earns 11.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 37.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.16381210158110365],[2018,0.12720753485762729],[2019,0.14491218920033727],[2020,0.1308241460461557],[2021,0.09178330135875666],[2022,0.13709133714455565],[2023,0.09933653459712406],[2024,0.056134157869617396],[2025,0.03645737345923268],[2026,0.0511772104765459]]; median 0.11327203472737568. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 38% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.38351447816869283],[2022,0.3790718697099685],[2023,0.3791209764958685]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13276000000; owner earnings 44588000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 3639000000; upkeep 16553000000; cash acquisitions 981000000; owner earnings 34731000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.13302237194437247.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 20473000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 25599000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 12572000000; owner earnings 25036000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 14530000000; owner earnings 34030000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 1456000000; upkeep 19270000000; owner earnings 31827000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04574732145662488.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 1897000000; upkeep 21023000000; owner earnings 23245000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08160894816089481.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 22934000000; owner earnings 5663000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 14130000000; owner earnings 24378000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,9768000000],[2018,10123000000],[2019,10547000000],[2020,11274000000],[2021,11603000000],[2022,11501000000],[2023,11325000000],[2024,11869000000],[2025,12200000000],[2026,11784000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06986046939314494. Price 1216; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 175.3645021910336 → FY2026 54.16191399662732. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,161.67 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,190.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,150.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 975.67 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,021.67 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,030.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,193.33 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,293.33 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,276.67 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,383.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,480.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,376.67 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,386.67 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,498.33 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,576.67 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,558.33 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,763.33 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,893.33 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,920.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,740.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,770.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,006.67 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,658.33 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,560.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,586.67 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,826.67 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,843.33 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,916.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,628.33 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,706.67 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,720.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,528.33 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,616.67 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,690.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,010.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,026.67 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,886.67 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,766.67 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,405.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,746.67 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,690.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,616.67 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,723.33 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,673.33 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,640.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,986.67 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,023.33 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,963.33 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,976.67 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,003.33 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,983.33 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,190.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,010.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,010.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,163.33 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,350.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,393.33 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,940.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,890.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,730.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,786.67 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,783.33 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,666.67 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,773.33 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,866.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,880.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,820.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,713.33 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,873.33 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,803.33 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,640.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,673.33 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,723.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,696.67 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,776.67 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,843.33 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,835.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,833.33 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,499.67 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,362.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,326.33 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,153.67 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,085.67 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,088.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,090.33 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,083.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,112.33 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,189.67 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,255.33 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,198.33 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,165.67 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,233.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,244.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,100.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,129.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,102.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,103.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,156.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,040.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,010.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,042.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,087.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 977.60 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 984.10 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 974.90 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,080.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,092.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,118.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,211.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,103.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,125.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,156.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,142.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,243.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,340.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,221.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,208.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2023: low JPY 860.47 per share, central JPY 953.69 per share, high JPY 1,077.79 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 853.94 per share, central JPY 946.52 per share, high JPY 1,069.78 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 888.11 per share, central JPY 984.76 per share, high JPY 1,113.42 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 813.39 per share, central JPY 895.01 per share, high JPY 1,003.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:35.641Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJE7.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations