# Nintendo (7974.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7974.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:36.279Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 8,228.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 8,981.13 per share, central JPY 12,030.23 per share, high JPY 13,805.72 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 12,030.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:36.279Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.9% at the stated quote. About 13.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.38×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.35×

- FY2023: 0.31×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.24×

- FY2026: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 12.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 66.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 31.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 64.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.6%

- FY2018: 37.6%

- FY2019: 54.7%

- FY2020: 77.9%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: 93.9%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 31.8%

- FY2026: 36.5%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 2.09T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 2.10T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 58.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 11.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 37.6% vs 36.5%

- Per-share earnings: 85.39 to 364.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 7.10T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.49T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 19.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 279.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 85.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 364.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.47

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 37B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 3.28T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 37.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 36.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 85.39

- FY2018: JPY 116.23

- FY2019: JPY 161.55

- FY2020: JPY 217.12

- FY2021: JPY 403.26

- FY2022: JPY 404.67

- FY2023: JPY 371.41

- FY2024: JPY 421.39

- FY2025: JPY 239.47

- FY2026: JPY 364.51

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.68×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.7%

- FY2018: -0.8%

- FY2019: 1.4%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -5.4%

- FY2022: 7.1%

- FY2023: 3.9%

- FY2024: 0.9%

- FY2025: 7.8%

- FY2026: 3.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 41% since Jun 2025 · sales +98.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.679Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +98.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 489B 

- FY2018: JPY 1.06T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.20T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.31T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.76T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.70T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.60T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.67T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.16T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.31T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 39.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: 40.7% 

- FY2018: 38.2% 

- FY2019: 41.7% 

- FY2020: 49.0% 

- FY2021: 55.2% 

- FY2022: 55.8% 

- FY2023: 55.3% 

- FY2024: 57.1% 

- FY2025: 61.0% 

- FY2026: 39.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in electronic gaming & multimedia; annual sales are JPY 2.3 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 2313051000000; grossProfit 908956000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.3% to 61% during 2024–26; it earns 66.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 57.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 61%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 39.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.08614137929258386],[2018,0.37593184076653435],[2019,0.5471025404592739],[2020,0.7789651320572499],[2021,3.4227539908742375],[2022,1.1723807970272757],[2023,0.9392431435009779],[2024,1.0859898525191436],[2025,0.3176745989558403],[2026,0.3646204482820246]]; median 0.663033836258262. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 56% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5517462519401221],[2022,0.5580248020460744],[2023,0.5528205749348963]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 2.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 58.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 10458000000; owner earnings 100482000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 545000000; upkeep 9064000000; owner earnings 139590000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0039042911383336916.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 1172000000; upkeep 9564000000; owner earnings 194009000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.006040956862825951.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2020: growth capex 286000000; upkeep 9557000000; owner earnings 258641000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.001105779826090991.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 7011000000; owner earnings 484163000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 7587000000; owner earnings 480631000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 22190000000; owner earnings 421618000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 16123000000; owner earnings 492335000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 19008000000; owner earnings 275159000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: growth capex 11315000000; upkeep 15854000000; owner earnings 424056000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.026682796611768256.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Incremental return on capital 0.5812662634521372, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,14384000000],[2018,64829000000],[2019,77980000000],[2020,108331000000],[2021,194021000000],[2022,240560000000],[2023,238700000000],[2024,236240000000],[2025,193191000000],[2026,147858000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: cash repurchases 99935000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 35.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.004068485466644234. Price 8228; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 17.460330808845807 → FY2026 364.51. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,777.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,454.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,312.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,350.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,583.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,804.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,365.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,768.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,748.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,664.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,156.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,380.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,520.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,119.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,797.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 4,908.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 4,686.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,617.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,500.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,620.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,676.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,016.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 4,146.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,516.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,461.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,928.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,383.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,044.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,156.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,800.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,870.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,949.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 4,010.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 4,029.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,002.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,862.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,235.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,397.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,077.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,627.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 4,161.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 4,465.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 4,354.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 4,801.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 4,644.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 5,674.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 5,966.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 5,698.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 5,926.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 6,583.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 6,058.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 6,475.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 6,181.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 6,269.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 6,770.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 6,462.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 5,640.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 5,290.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 5,431.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 5,020.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 5,010.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 5,365.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 5,616.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 5,802.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 6,167.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 5,991.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 5,742.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 5,868.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 5,971.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 5,699.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 5,854.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 6,070.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 5,894.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 5,532.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 5,625.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 5,124.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 5,131.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 5,721.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 5,936.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 6,542.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 6,450.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 6,267.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 6,230.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 6,221.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 6,912.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 7,359.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 8,310.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 8,400.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 8,206.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 7,720.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 8,555.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 8,556.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 8,388.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 7,902.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 7,636.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 8,145.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 8,810.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 9,264.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 10,230.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 11,160.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 10,110.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 11,830.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 11,835.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 13,880.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 12,690.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 13,310.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 12,805.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 13,045.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 13,280.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 10,595.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 10,055.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 8,995.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 8,775.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 7,687.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 7,148.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,815.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 7,679.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 9,044.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 7,944.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 8,268.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 1,613.71 per share, central JPY 1,725.21 per share, high JPY 1,873.63 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 2,326.62 per share, central JPY 2,525.83 per share, high JPY 2,791.03 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 2,939.70 per share, central JPY 3,207.21 per share, high JPY 3,563.33 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 4,623.18 per share, central JPY 5,063.01 per share, high JPY 5,648.53 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 4,523.47 per share, central JPY 4,951.29 per share, high JPY 5,520.80 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 6,504.65 per share, central JPY 8,612.66 per share, high JPY 9,840.16 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 6,226.68 per share, central JPY 6,822.39 per share, high JPY 7,615.39 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,758.19 per share, central JPY 5,173.26 per share, high JPY 5,725.80 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 8,981.13 per share, central JPY 12,030.23 per share, high JPY 13,805.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9NX.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations