# Toyota Tsusho (8015.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8015.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T06:39:46.122Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 7,328.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,779.13 per share, central JPY 5,284.95 per share, high JPY 5,958.29 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 5,284.95 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T06:39:46.122Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.3 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 6.1%

- FY2019: 6.7%

- FY2020: 6.8%

- FY2021: 6.4%

- FY2022: 7.8%

- FY2023: 9.3%

- FY2024: 9.4%

- FY2025: 10.7%

- FY2026: 10.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.52T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.57T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.94×

- FY2025: 0.91×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 306.64 to 343.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 11.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 5.89T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.80T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 11.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 1.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY 36.76

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 306.64

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 343.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.21T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 306.64

- FY2018: JPY 370.08

- FY2019: JPY 376.89

- FY2020: JPY 385.25

- FY2021: JPY 127.52

- FY2022: JPY 210.54

- FY2023: JPY 269.19

- FY2024: JPY 313.98

- FY2025: JPY 343.40

- FY2026: JPY 350.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.24×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.18×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -1.8%

- FY2020: -2.9%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: 2.8%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -3.0%

- FY2025: -2.1%

- FY2026: -1.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.9% a year for ten years · sales +12.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.749Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY 5.80T 

- FY2018: JPY 6.49T 

- FY2019: JPY 6.76T 

- FY2020: JPY 6.69T 

- FY2021: JPY 6.31T 

- FY2022: JPY 8.03T 

- FY2023: JPY 9.85T 

- FY2024: JPY 10.19T 

- FY2025: JPY 10.31T 

- FY2026: JPY 11.56T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 10.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2018: 9.3% 

- FY2019: 9.4% 

- FY2020: 9.6% 

- FY2021: 9.6% 

- FY2022: 9.5% 

- FY2023: 9.8% 

- FY2024: 10.3% 

- FY2025: 10.9% 

- FY2026: 10.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are JPY 11.6 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 11561935000000; grossProfit 1264428000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-29); TYHOY.US: Toyota Tsusho Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, processing, and sale of various products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Metal+ (Plus), Circular Economy, Supply Chain, Mobility, Green Infrastructure, Digital Solutions, Lifestyle, and Africa segments. The company processes, manufactures, and sells automotive steel and aluminum sheets, special and stainless steel sheets, electrical steel sheets, and steel bars and pipes, as well as building materials; and develops, sells, and distributes critical metals, batteries, electronic materials, synthetic resins, rubber, organic chemicals, additives, and pharmaceutical raw materials. It also procures, designs, develops, sells, and services mobility interior and exterior parts and accessories, as well as offers logistics, airport management, resources recycling, and supply chain-related business development services; and import and exports commercial, passenger, industrial, and other vehicles and supply parts, as well as provides vehicle installation and assembly services. In addition, the company trades in manufacturing and logistics equipment, parts and tools, and construction machineries, as well as develops social infrastructure and operates power generation plants, airports, and ports; and sells electronic devices and components, semiconductors, IT-related products, computers, peripherals, and software, as well as offers network construction and maintenance, help desk, cybersecurity, and software development. Further, it is involved in the import and export of grain, agricultural, livestock, and marine products, as well as provision of insurance agency and brokerage services, textiles and fiber products, real estate development and management, and healthcare centers; and leasing and sale of new and used cars, after-sale services, sale of pharmaceutical products, and retail business. The company was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.3% to 10.9% during 2024–26; it earns 7.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.9%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 10.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.06089177431664994],[2019,0.06715250888345144],[2020,0.06780715054417952],[2021,0.06382087867083708],[2022,0.0775378544559505],[2023,0.09297610152687827],[2024,0.09356537155297114],[2025,0.10708317057742556],[2026,0.10418780302813356]]; median 0.0775378544559505. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 9% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.09630635903839141],[2022,0.09457361733931241],[2023,0.09837438163548783]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 42.8% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 74741000000; owner earnings 134948212966.28766. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2019: growth capex 24657540477.053467; upkeep 76509459522.94653; owner earnings 132189682494.99387. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18653150542204586.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 117714000000; owner earnings 123233718883.59673. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 137712000000; owner earnings 105897540815.73952. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2022: growth capex 56401000000; upkeep 110885000000; owner earnings 222235000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2537899070803429.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2023: growth capex 51861000000; upkeep 128984000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 284155000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18250954584645704.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: growth capex 39554111676.00702; upkeep 159340888323.99298; cash acquisitions 86821000000; owner earnings 312275111676.007. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.40469159068662586.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: growth capex 13968370367.967377; upkeep 185279629632.03262; cash acquisitions 18651000000; owner earnings 329812370367.9674. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09890281050275454.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: growth capex 6347000000; upkeep 177109000000; cash acquisitions 152344000000; owner earnings 370516000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.42829729350419415.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2018,29577000000],[2019,34858000000],[2020,38728000000],[2021,35205000000],[2022,46471000000],[2023,65485000000],[2024,81331000000],[2025,107389000000],[2026,119369000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8015.T?type=annualTotalRevenue%2CannualCostOfRevenue%2CannualGrossProfit%2CannualOperatingIncome%2CannualOperatingExpense%2CannualNetIncome%2CannualPretaxIncome%2CannualTaxProvision%2CannualDepreciationAndAmortization%2CannualStockBasedCompensation%2CannualOperatingCashFlow%2CannualCapitalExpenditure%2CannualCashDividendsPaid%2CannualRepurchaseOfCapitalStock%2CannualIssuanceOfCapitalStock%2CannualNetBusinessPurchaseAndSale%2CannualReceivables%2CannualInventory%2CannualAccountsPayable%2CannualCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments%2CannualTotalDebt%2CannualCurrentDebt%2CannualStockholdersEquity%2CannualGoodwill%2CannualOtherIntangibleAssets%2CannualNetPPE%2CannualTotalAssets%2CannualTotalLiabilitiesNetMinorityInterest%2CannualCurrentAssets%2CannualCurrentLiabilities%2CannualDilutedAverageShares%2CannualDilutedEPS%2CannualRetainedEarnings&period1=1262304000&period2=1790802311 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 15000000 JPY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-29); TYHOY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-09-29.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0714374832741379. Price 7328; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 953.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,015.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,036.67 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,116.67 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,123.33 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,171.67 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,131.67 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,121.67 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,183.33 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,128.33 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,231.67 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,366.67 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,406.67 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,511.67 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,470.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,331.67 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,201.67 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,311.67 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,253.33 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,236.67 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,268.33 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,263.33 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,430.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,361.67 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,306.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,081.67 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,153.33 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,178.33 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,201.67 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,226.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,045.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,088.33 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,056.67 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,098.33 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,161.67 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,256.67 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,275.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,286.67 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,278.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,088.33 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 848.67 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 862.67 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 910.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 909.67 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 886.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,030.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 980.67 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 966.33 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,203.33 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,388.33 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,361.67 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,486.67 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,548.33 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,540.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,635.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,750.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,713.33 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,621.67 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,585.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,643.33 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,651.67 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,766.67 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,536.67 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,588.33 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,686.67 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,565.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,641.67 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,476.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,505.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,635.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,493.33 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,666.67 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,743.33 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,628.33 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,820.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,853.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,873.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,870.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,046.67 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,379.67 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,765.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,898.33 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,931.67 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,635.33 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,730.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,769.33 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,262.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,224.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,435.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,360.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,179.67 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,132.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,033.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,792.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,585.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,643.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,551.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,828.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,640.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,495.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,493.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,825.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,070.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,269.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,471.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,972.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,102.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,717.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,054.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,274.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,606.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 6,988.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,950.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,101.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,930.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,978.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 6,722.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 7,478.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 7,226.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 7,311.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 2,042.00 per share, central JPY 2,266.04 per share, high JPY 2,564.29 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,537.73 per share, central JPY 2,812.57 per share, high JPY 3,178.44 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,559.87 per share, central JPY 3,962.54 per share, high JPY 4,498.58 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,786.30 per share, central JPY 4,210.95 per share, high JPY 4,776.25 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,779.25 per share, central JPY 5,285.08 per share, high JPY 5,958.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:46.122Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD8J.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations