# Credit Saison (8253.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8253.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:43.356Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,118.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,161.65 per share, central JPY 5,202.06 per share, high JPY 6,936.08 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 5,202.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:43.356Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.21×

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 42B

- FY2018: JPY 38B

- FY2019: JPY 31B

- FY2020: JPY 23B

- FY2021: JPY 36B

- FY2022: JPY 35B

- FY2023: JPY 44B

- FY2024: JPY 73B

- FY2025: JPY 66B

- FY2026: JPY 62B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 10.7%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 8.9%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.2 pp

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.7%

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 16.9%

- FY2018: 14.3%

- FY2019: 11.3%

- FY2020: 7.5%

- FY2021: 10.1%

- FY2022: 8.9%

- FY2023: 9.8%

- FY2024: 12.9%

- FY2025: 11.5%

- FY2026: 9.6%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 15.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: JPY 1K

- Ending book value per share: JPY 4K

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 331B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 280B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 22.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 160.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 832.6%

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 14.5%

- FY2018: 9.1%

- FY2019: 3.2%

- FY2020: 17.9%

- FY2021: 23.2%

- FY2022: 13.0%

- FY2023: 14.0%

- FY2024: 25.2%

- FY2025: 8.1%

- FY2026: 24.2%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.5%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.77×

- Book value created per share: JPY 3K

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: JPY 2K

- Market cap gain: JPY 258B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 341B

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY 189.74

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 235.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 425.13

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 46B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 450B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.3%

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 92

- FY2018: 92

- FY2019: 92

- FY2020: 90

- FY2021: 88

- FY2022: 88

- FY2023: 88

- FY2024: 91

- FY2025: 88

- FY2026: 82

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

- Sloan accruals: 4.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -2.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 4.9% a year forever · net income -7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.730Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 4.9% a year forever

### Net income · FY2026

net income -7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YZ8K.pdf; observed 2026-08-28.

- FY2017: JPY 42B 

- FY2018: JPY 38B 

- FY2019: JPY 31B 

- FY2020: JPY 23B 

- FY2021: JPY 36B 

- FY2022: JPY 35B 

- FY2023: JPY 44B 

- FY2024: JPY 73B 

- FY2025: JPY 66B 

- FY2026: JPY 62B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in credit services; annual sales are JPY 472.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-28); FY2026: revenue 472770000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 10.7% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-28); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2017,0.1688843234514707],[2018,0.14345276190262324],[2019,0.11305062958201978],[2020,0.0753736042383023],[2021,0.1005938410911308],[2022,0.08867737229205],[2023,0.09771354035930721],[2024,0.12922055503917143],[2025,0.11500143758292082],[2026,0.0956618361530701]]; median 0.10682223533657528. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 21.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,5719000000],[2018,5719000000],[2019,5719000000],[2020,7353000000],[2021,7033000000],[2022,7035000000],[2023,8600000000],[2024,10948000000],[2025,17288000000],[2026,18062000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/QC9.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-08-28); FY2026: cash repurchases 21511000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 4.9% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-28); Price 4118; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 208.08232111274836; discount 0.1; growth 0.049470053153776505. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,051.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,077.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,062.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,131.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,986.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,029.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,056.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,194.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,124.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,995.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,335.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,274.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,159.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,050.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,983.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,849.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,747.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,963.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,807.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,744.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,739.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,840.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,853.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,797.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,457.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,291.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,430.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,616.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,462.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,416.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,170.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,261.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,331.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,182.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,449.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,578.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,901.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,776.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,568.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,256.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,235.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,283.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,232.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 979.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,209.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,112.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,122.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,195.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,186.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,189.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,325.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,328.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,255.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,349.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,354.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,298.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,252.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,476.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,391.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,124.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,209.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,278.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,295.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,303.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,463.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,498.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,559.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,694.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,692.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,590.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,757.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,701.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,698.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,856.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,680.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,879.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,916.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,204.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,278.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,370.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,245.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,490.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,599.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,760.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,912.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,190.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,926.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,405.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,328.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,506.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,225.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,581.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,483.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,579.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,698.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,673.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,521.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 3,526.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,340.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,944.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,900.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,016.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,778.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,950.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,767.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,927.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,208.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,151.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,772.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,012.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,359.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 4,093.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 4,404.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 4,551.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 4,671.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,515.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,177.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 1,560.03 per share, central JPY 1,950.04 per share, high JPY 2,600.05 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 1,664.81 per share, central JPY 2,081.01 per share, high JPY 2,774.68 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 1,814.67 per share, central JPY 2,268.34 per share, high JPY 3,024.46 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,176.24 per share, central JPY 2,393.86 per share, high JPY 2,659.85 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,334.24 per share, central JPY 2,567.67 per share, high JPY 2,852.97 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,235.26 per share, central JPY 2,794.07 per share, high JPY 3,725.43 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,095.15 per share, central JPY 3,868.94 per share, high JPY 5,158.58 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,705.31 per share, central JPY 4,631.64 per share, high JPY 6,175.52 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,161.65 per share, central JPY 5,202.06 per share, high JPY 6,936.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:43.356Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YZ8K.pdf); period 2026-05-31, filed 2026-08-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations