# Mizuho Financial Group (8411.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8411.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T06:39:22.950Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 7,905.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,588.57 per share, central JPY 1,870.89 per share, high JPY 2,275.23 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,870.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T06:39:22.950Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.38×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 604B

- FY2018: JPY 577B

- FY2019: JPY 97B

- FY2020: JPY 449B

- FY2021: JPY 471B

- FY2022: JPY 530B

- FY2023: JPY 556B

- FY2024: JPY 679B

- FY2025: JPY 885B

- FY2026: JPY 1.25T

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 6.8%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 5.5%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.1%

- FY2018: 7.2%

- FY2019: 1.2%

- FY2020: 5.7%

- FY2021: 5.5%

- FY2022: 6.3%

- FY2023: 6.5%

- FY2024: 7.1%

- FY2025: 9.2%

- FY2026: 12.0%

### economics: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 6.4%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: JPY 3K

- Ending book value per share: JPY 4K

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.2%

- FY2018: 9.2%

- FY2019: 4.4%

- FY2020: -0.3%

- FY2021: 11.5%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: 3.5%

- FY2024: 13.8%

- FY2025: 4.8%

- FY2026: 14.2%

### management: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book per share gain below retained common earnings per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.2%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 0.99×

- Book value created per share: JPY 1K

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: JPY 1K

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 100

- FY2018: 100

- FY2019: 100

- FY2020: 100

- FY2021: 100

- FY2022: 100

- FY2023: 100

- FY2024: 100

- FY2025: 100

- FY2026: 98

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Loans, annualized growth: 3.1%

- Deposits, annualized growth: 4.6%

- Known restatement years: 0

- Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 1

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 8.7% a year forever · net income +41%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.946Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 8.7% a year forever

### Net income · FY2026

net income +41%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF8Y.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: JPY 604B 

- FY2018: JPY 577B 

- FY2019: JPY 97B 

- FY2020: JPY 449B 

- FY2021: JPY 471B 

- FY2022: JPY 530B 

- FY2023: JPY 556B 

- FY2024: JPY 679B 

- FY2025: JPY 885B 

- FY2026: JPY 1.25T 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are JPY 4.2 trillion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MZ8.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: revenue 4221805000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-29); MFG.US: Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. The company offers finance solutions, including corporate, syndicated, acquisition, real estate, project, ECA, and other structured finance solutions; financing and advisory solutions for capital markets comprising debt, loan, and equity capital markets; corporate finance advisory services; treasury solutions that include deposit, cash management, and trade finance; and market solutions for foreign exchange, derivatives, futures, equities, and fixed income. It also provides asset management services; research services, such as industry, macroeconomic, equity, and fixed income research; and institutional services, including markets, JPY clearing, custody, fund administration, and securities lending services. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

### Why customers stay

It earns 6.8% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2017,0.08072242844582067],[2018,0.07231119599615508],[2019,0.011879819033471427],[2020,0.056652874593338856],[2021,0.05454112596820862],[2022,0.06258534300603226],[2023,0.06489364734335633],[2024,0.07141733957254547],[2025,0.09191363512975544],[2026,0.11968027800845465]]; median 0.0681554934579509. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 404.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Dividend observations: [[2017,190031000000],[2018,190382000000],[2019,190413000000],[2020,190386000000],[2021,190497000000],[2022,196783000000],[2023,209457000000],[2024,234786000000],[2025,304425000000],[2026,368703000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF8Y.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: cash repurchases 404325000000 JPY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-29); MFG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.006999999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-09-29.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 8.7% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Price 7905; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 105.2735761827854; discount 0.1; growth 0.08668265955941994. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,026.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,098.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,103.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,097.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,040.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,036.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,928.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,054.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,964.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,891.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,971.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,049.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,039.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,046.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,053.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,994.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,914.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,984.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,897.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,865.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,946.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,951.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,982.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,940.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,883.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,703.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,794.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,713.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,735.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,537.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,561.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,544.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,547.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,656.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,688.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,692.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,683.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,625.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,476.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,236.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,258.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,345.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,322.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,276.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,438.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,310.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,281.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,327.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,307.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,378.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,559.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,599.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,535.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,673.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,587.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,565.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,543.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,584.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,505.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,402.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,463.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,550.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,525.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,567.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,578.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,519.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,543.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,583.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,593.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,562.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,606.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,717.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,856.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,027.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,122.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,878.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,965.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,053.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,199.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,404.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,410.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,541.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,545.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,512.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,412.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,702.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,801.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,032.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,052.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,214.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,358.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,448.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,009.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,936.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,212.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,784.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,873.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,307.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,177.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,051.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,580.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,002.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,993.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,482.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,895.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,988.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 5,149.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,473.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,700.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 6,783.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,151.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 6,087.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,722.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 7,195.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 7,743.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 8,167.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 8,623.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 8,855.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 8,168.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2017: low JPY 1,682.95 per share, central JPY 2,103.69 per share, high JPY 2,804.92 per share

- FY2018: low JPY 2,417.92 per share, central JPY 2,659.71 per share, high JPY 2,955.23 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 1,611.21 per share, central JPY 2,004.19 per share, high JPY 2,650.70 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 2,180.71 per share, central JPY 2,398.78 per share, high JPY 2,665.31 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,311.06 per share, central JPY 1,569.54 per share, high JPY 1,954.98 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,114.51 per share, central JPY 2,325.96 per share, high JPY 2,584.40 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,160.54 per share, central JPY 1,363.45 per share, high JPY 1,652.34 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,307.28 per share, central JPY 1,533.81 per share, high JPY 1,855.30 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,403.22 per share, central JPY 1,652.60 per share, high JPY 2,009.77 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,547.67 per share, central JPY 1,822.71 per share, high JPY 2,216.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:22.950Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF8Y.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations