# Tokio Marine Holdings (8766.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8766.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:49.146Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 542.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 174.94 per share, central JPY 206.60 per share, high JPY 252.23 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 206.60 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:49.146Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.23×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 274B

- FY2018: JPY 284B

- FY2019: JPY 275B

- FY2020: JPY 260B

- FY2021: JPY 162B

- FY2022: JPY 420B

- FY2023: JPY 375B

- FY2024: JPY 696B

- FY2025: JPY 450B

- FY2026: JPY 531B

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Underwriting economics assessed through return on tangible common equity

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 10.0%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 8.2%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.3%

- FY2018: 9.5%

- FY2019: 9.8%

- FY2020: 11.4%

- FY2021: 6.2%

- FY2022: 14.3%

- FY2023: 15.5%

- FY2024: 11.8%

- FY2025: 8.2%

- FY2026: 9.2%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 15.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: JPY 2K

- Ending book value per share: JPY 4K

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.5%

- FY2018: 12.3%

- FY2019: 2.0%

- FY2020: 0.7%

- FY2021: 14.3%

- FY2022: 15.8%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: 119.0%

- FY2025: -0.3%

- FY2026: 20.3%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.7%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.9%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 8.00×

- Book value created per share: JPY 3K

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: JPY 330.61

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 100

- FY2018: 98

- FY2019: 95

- FY2020: 93

- FY2021: 92

- FY2022: 91

- FY2023: 89

- FY2024: 87

- FY2025: 86

- FY2026: 84

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 7.9% a year forever · net income +17.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.794Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 7.9% a year forever

### Net income · FY2026

net income +17.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLS8.pdf; observed 2026-06-26.

- FY2017: JPY 274B 

- FY2018: JPY 284B 

- FY2019: JPY 275B 

- FY2020: JPY 260B 

- FY2021: JPY 162B 

- FY2022: JPY 420B 

- FY2023: JPY 375B 

- FY2024: JPY 696B 

- FY2025: JPY 450B 

- FY2026: JPY 531B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance property & casualty; annual sales are JPY 8.3 trillion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MH6.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: revenue 8310156000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 10% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2017,0.10287344383142874],[2018,0.09450111599126361],[2019,0.09783203171624973],[2020,0.1143905085510057],[2021,0.062015744542705704],[2022,0.14311601108757332],[2023,0.15479948444938857],[2024,0.11750157176387623],[2025,0.08214873633462447],[2026,0.09184676386916303]]; median 0.10035273777383924. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 251.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Dividend observations: [[2017,94244000000],[2018,113855000000],[2019,172397000000],[2020,154799000000],[2021,160419000000],[2022,151571000000],[2023,192008000000],[2024,219142000000],[2025,280967000000],[2026,375420000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MH6.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: cash repurchases 251599000000 JPY.

### What could break it

"②巨大地震" (8766 filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLS8.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); ②巨大地震

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 7.9% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Price 542.5999755859375; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 11.41791185720088; discount 0.1; growth 0.07895703580732562. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 108.87 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 106.58 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 105.13 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 109.31 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 104.36 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 104.27 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 104.44 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 103.36 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 103.22 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 97.56 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 97.82 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 107.89 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 110.22 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 114.24 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 114.22 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 110.36 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 105.22 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 114.93 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 116.44 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 115.40 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 117.80 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 116.38 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 125.27 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 118.80 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 124.56 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 116.36 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 118.04 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 120.58 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 119.16 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 124.49 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 120.02 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 119.98 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 128.82 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 121.60 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 128.42 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 130.40 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 132.27 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 135.98 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 133.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 128.91 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 110.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 113.02 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 103.73 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 104.40 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 98.58 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 108.67 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 102.22 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 103.53 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 115.33 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 117.96 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 114.07 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 116.73 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 117.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 116.22 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 115.09 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 113.51 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 115.78 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 119.49 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 133.80 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 133.29 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 126.84 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 142.04 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 151.78 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 146.09 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 158.40 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 155.98 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 165.91 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 175.62 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 172.53 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 173.16 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 171.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 179.40 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 188.47 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 188.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 180.93 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 192.70 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 169.80 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 181.33 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 209.60 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 221.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 217.27 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 215.13 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 231.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 222.87 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 243.20 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 235.27 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 262.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 291.73 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 314.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 332.73 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 361.93 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 400.33 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 401.47 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 367.07 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 348.73 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 371.20 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 370.93 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 381.87 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 344.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 353.13 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 382.40 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 380.53 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 407.47 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 407.40 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 408.27 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 426.73 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 417.93 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 385.47 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 367.27 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 387.80 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 381.80 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 435.13 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 487.20 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 480.13 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 474.07 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 480.13 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 540.93 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 513.80 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 537.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 525.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 931.77 per share, central JPY 1,164.72 per share, high JPY 1,552.96 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 943.94 per share, central JPY 1,179.93 per share, high JPY 1,573.24 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 815.18 per share, central JPY 1,018.97 per share, high JPY 1,358.63 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 902.42 per share, central JPY 1,128.02 per share, high JPY 1,504.03 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,081.07 per share, central JPY 1,351.33 per share, high JPY 1,801.78 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 971.91 per share, central JPY 1,214.89 per share, high JPY 1,619.85 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,580.34 per share, central JPY 3,225.43 per share, high JPY 4,300.57 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,457.71 per share, central JPY 3,016.71 per share, high JPY 3,904.87 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,591.91 per share, central JPY 3,060.89 per share, high JPY 3,737.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:49.146Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YLS8.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations