# Mitsubishi Estate Company (8802.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8802.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:49.542Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,571.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,246.24 per share, central JPY 2,954.21 per share, high JPY 3,425.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,954.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:49.542Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.7%

- FY2018: 4.0%

- FY2019: 4.2%

- FY2020: 4.5%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 4.5%

- FY2023: 4.5%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 3.6%

- FY2026: 3.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.77×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 696B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 901B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -8.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -55.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -5.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.39×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.46×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.0% vs 3.6%

- Per-share earnings: 74.00 to 151.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.47T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 659B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 9.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY 77.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 74.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 151.04

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 47B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.54T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 74.00

- FY2018: JPY 86.78

- FY2019: JPY 96.97

- FY2020: JPY 108.64

- FY2021: JPY 101.34

- FY2022: JPY 116.45

- FY2023: JPY 125.54

- FY2024: JPY 131.96

- FY2025: JPY 151.04

- FY2026: JPY 181.80

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.29×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -3.0%

- FY2019: -3.7%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: -1.2%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -1.5%

- FY2024: -1.8%

- FY2025: -1.7%

- FY2026: -3.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 32% since Feb 2026 · sales +10.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.811Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBLA.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 1.13T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.19T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.26T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.30T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.21T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.35T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.38T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.50T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.58T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.75T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 26%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBLA.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2023: 28.8% 

- FY2024: 26.1% 

- FY2025: 26.5% 

- FY2026: 26.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.7 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBLA.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 1746148000000; grossProfit 454761000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26% to 26.5% during 2024–26; it earns 3.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8802.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.1%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8802.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.5%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8802.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 26%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.03704006812803483],[2018,0.039507495775010726],[2019,0.04231659638434289],[2020,0.04505897027288629],[2021,0.03902883175666734],[2022,0.044650783798332164],[2023,0.044556572966796694],[2024,0.03443746343192381],[2025,0.035778760092384475],[2026,0.03711996141724632]]; median 0.03926816376583903. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 5.2% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 198712000000; upkeep 75974000000; owner earnings 101936000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.9493800031392245.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 208961000000; upkeep 77545000000; owner earnings 119551000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7478816572006926.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 202971000000; upkeep 80336000000; owner earnings 134255000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5118319615656772.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 129735157031.103; upkeep 201986842968.897; owner earnings 40788155913.45567. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.180706607731301.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 237010000000; upkeep 91581000000; owner earnings 154850288322.42508. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5305751288399554.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 92252589709.49002; upkeep 194048410290.50998; cash acquisitions 33421000000; owner earnings 64056589709.49002. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.9619150860113836.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 353101000000; upkeep 98301000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 167895000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.1031061079841566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 240625664545.49985; upkeep 202973335454.50015; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 87114664545.49985. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.762171739980947.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBLA.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 416705000000; upkeep 108029000000; cash acquisitions 61000000; owner earnings 222036000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.8770199427119927.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.05248641652094954, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,25112000000],[2018,31913000000],[2019,37761000000],[2020,44103000000],[2021,40117000000],[2022,46792000000],[2023,51579000000],[2024,50042000000],[2025,51578000000],[2026,55469000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09559076906846886. Price 3571; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -84.18531548917603 → FY2026 181.41516806212837. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,305.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,327.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,162.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,195.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,030.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,130.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,068.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,093.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,006.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,894.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,956.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,045.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,002.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,960.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,088.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,875.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,798.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,002.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,976.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,937.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,940.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,844.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,932.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,805.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,821.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,729.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,924.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,913.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,005.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,875.50 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,997.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,005.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,012.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,034.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,084.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,107.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,006.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,089.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,152.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,844.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,595.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,762.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,713.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,602.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,519.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,661.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,587.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,554.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,804.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,657.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,652.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,838.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,932.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,795.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,773.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,796.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,712.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,721.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,780.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,728.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,565.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,594.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,657.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,757.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,819.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,883.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,909.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,969.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,976.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,880.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,896.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,873.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,940.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,711.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,671.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,695.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,576.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,672.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,603.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,737.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,862.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,955.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,914.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,996.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,943.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,062.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,300.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,775.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,908.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,639.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,520.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,574.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,500.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,258.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,288.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,119.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,200.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,268.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,198.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,432.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,505.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,641.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,703.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,836.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,158.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,403.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,264.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,685.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,821.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,940.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,278.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,321.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,434.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 4,056.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 4,145.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,893.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,795.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,608.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,419.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,067.94 per share, central JPY 1,198.03 per share, high JPY 1,371.20 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 996.84 per share, central JPY 1,119.99 per share, high JPY 1,283.92 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,242.28 per share, central JPY 1,395.09 per share, high JPY 1,598.51 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 755.18 per share, central JPY 934.49 per share, high JPY 1,066.89 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 868.17 per share, central JPY 1,061.09 per share, high JPY 1,207.35 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,044.26 per share, central JPY 1,302.79 per share, high JPY 1,492.69 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,246.24 per share, central JPY 2,954.21 per share, high JPY 3,425.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBLA.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations