# Sumitomo Realty & Development (8830.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8830.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:49.733Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,142.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,315.84 per share, central JPY 2,629.51 per share, high JPY 3,047.07 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,629.51 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:49.733Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.22×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.27×

- FY2026: 0.28×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 34.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 21.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.6%

- FY2018: 3.6%

- FY2019: 3.8%

- FY2020: 3.8%

- FY2021: 3.2%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 3.2%

- FY2024: 3.2%

- FY2025: 3.3%

- FY2026: 3.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 478B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 894B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 15.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 68.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.78×

- FY2023: -1.36×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.6% vs 3.3%

- Per-share earnings: 218.34 to 202.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 14.4%

- Market cap gain: JPY 3.40T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.19T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 14.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -0.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY -15.78

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 218.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 202.56

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 22B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.53T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 218.34

- FY2018: JPY 252.62

- FY2019: JPY 274.51

- FY2020: JPY 297.50

- FY2021: JPY 298.33

- FY2022: JPY 158.73

- FY2023: JPY 170.83

- FY2024: JPY 186.91

- FY2025: JPY 202.56

- FY2026: JPY 228.42

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.2%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.60×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.1%

- FY2018: -1.4%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: -1.5%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: -0.8%

- FY2025: -0.9%

- FY2026: 1.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 41% since Feb 2026 · sales +4.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.820Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YI5D.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 925B 

- FY2018: JPY 948B 

- FY2019: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2021: JPY 917B 

- FY2022: JPY 939B 

- FY2023: JPY 940B 

- FY2024: JPY 968B 

- FY2025: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.06T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 36.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YI5D.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 28.2% 

- FY2018: 30.0% 

- FY2019: 29.8% 

- FY2020: 31.7% 

- FY2021: 31.4% 

- FY2022: 32.2% 

- FY2023: 33.5% 

- FY2024: 34.3% 

- FY2025: 34.6% 

- FY2026: 36.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YI5D.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 1057765000000; grossProfit 384098000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 34.3% to 36.3% during 2024–26; it earns 3.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.6%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YI5D.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.036232404492367955],[2018,0.03588311666928989],[2019,0.038134499609950676],[2020,0.03804219647545309],[2021,0.03229504292283538],[2022,0.033908906607798245],[2023,0.03224390223051517],[2024,0.03169415651846169],[2025,0.03347139809720146],[2026,0.033718162034870706]]; median 0.03381353432133448. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 32.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 4.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 215485000000; upkeep 39445000000; owner earnings 103488000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.0822220933828075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 81127533165.1839; upkeep 138888466834.8161; owner earnings 22469533165.1839. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.6105571294596106.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 142261000000; upkeep 46312000000; owner earnings 130102000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0934574410846873.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 85571301776.86864; upkeep 93981698223.13136; owner earnings 117115301776.86864. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7306585943816418.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 115279000000; upkeep 73118000000; owner earnings 177171000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6506651765808174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 90635000000; upkeep 74881000000; owner earnings 191681000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4728429004439668.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YI5D.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 69298000000; upkeep 76342000000; owner earnings 212535000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3260545321946973.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.04288822963754659, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,10428000000],[2018,12324000000],[2019,13268000000],[2020,15162000000],[2021,18004000000],[2022,20374000000],[2023,22271000000],[2024,27004000000],[2025,31276000000],[2026,36104000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03224048404188229. Price 3142; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 185.23 → FY2026 228.42. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,579.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,553.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,532.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,550.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,443.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,503.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,732.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,671.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,663.50 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,702.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,882.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,848.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,851.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,093.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,950.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,967.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,174.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,056.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,044.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,044.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,925.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,040.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,941.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,104.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,013.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,076.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,082.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,293.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,051.50 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,003.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,924.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,988.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,997.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,056.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,971.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,907.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,906.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,025.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,317.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,456.75 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,492.25 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,481.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,344.75 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,565.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,551.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,393.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,702.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,590.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,579.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,835.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,953.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,819.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,819.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,985.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,776.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,776.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,043.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,055.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,769.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,691.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,770.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,693.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,694.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,717.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,737.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,791.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,829.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,644.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,707.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,858.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,560.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,578.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,607.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,491.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,580.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,684.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,776.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,903.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,864.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,943.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,877.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,087.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,097.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,338.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,219.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,902.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,746.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,451.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,360.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,501.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,482.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,403.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,300.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,319.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,470.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,696.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,603.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,796.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,650.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,777.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,783.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,771.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,048.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,266.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,290.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,771.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,932.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,295.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,288.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,392.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,843.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,717.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,741.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,603.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,326.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,183.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,059.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,769.75 per share, central JPY 3,100.70 per share, high JPY 3,541.26 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 859.99 per share, central JPY 929.11 per share, high JPY 1,021.12 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 396.56 per share, central JPY 431.95 per share, high JPY 479.05 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,543.68 per share, central JPY 1,745.05 per share, high JPY 2,013.11 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,315.84 per share, central JPY 2,629.51 per share, high JPY 3,047.07 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YI5D.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations