# Keio (9008.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9008.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:52.011Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 757.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 764.53 per share, central JPY 910.97 per share, high JPY 1,050.77 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 910.97 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:52.011Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.6% at the stated quote. About 11.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.80×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: -0.07×

- FY2022: 0.00×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.3%

- FY2018: 4.1%

- FY2019: 4.2%

- FY2020: 3.5%

- FY2021: -2.5%

- FY2022: 0.1%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: 4.1%

- FY2025: 5.3%

- FY2026: 4.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 128B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 134B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 26.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 40.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -0.04×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.2% vs 4.5%

- Per-share earnings: 173.35 to 70.75 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 36.9%

- Market cap gain: JPY 346B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 94B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 36.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -10.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY -102.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 173.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 70.75

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.03

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 10B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 196B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 173.35

- FY2018: JPY 195.71

- FY2019: JPY 222.87

- FY2020: JPY 146.40

- FY2021: JPY -225.38

- FY2022: JPY 9.15

- FY2023: JPY 21.48

- FY2024: JPY 47.90

- FY2025: JPY 70.75

- FY2026: JPY 73.00

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: -3.7%

- FY2021: -3.8%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: -1.2%

- FY2024: -2.1%

- FY2025: 1.3%

- FY2026: 0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Oct 2021 · sales +9.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.836Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF0G.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: JPY 419B 

- FY2018: JPY 435B 

- FY2019: JPY 448B 

- FY2020: JPY 434B 

- FY2021: JPY 315B 

- FY2022: JPY 300B 

- FY2023: JPY 347B 

- FY2024: JPY 409B 

- FY2025: JPY 453B 

- FY2026: JPY 497B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF0G.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2023: 20.2% 

- FY2024: 23.7% 

- FY2025: 25.0% 

- FY2026: 22.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 496.9 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF0G.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: revenue 496939000000; grossProfit 113887000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.9% to 25% during 2024–26; it earns 4.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9008.T (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 23.7%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9008.T (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9008.T (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 22.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04253013713494432],[2018,0.04066305495147549],[2019,0.0419606817479303],[2020,0.03544096880094083],[2021,-0.024707037339024917],[2022,0.0007392811912110071],[2023,0.020434872338307875],[2024,0.041155722181046656],[2025,0.053441441471878896],[2026,0.04457870078989412]]; median 0.04090938856626107. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 77.2% of cash earnings; earns 3.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2018: growth capex 22588170181.824066; upkeep 53939829818.175934; owner earnings 5817170181.824066. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.8830169095622344.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2019: growth capex 18458266039.92827; upkeep 39407733960.07173; owner earnings 24053266039.92827. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7673912561099879.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2023: growth capex 26962000000; upkeep 29127000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 13114000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.055970718316303.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: growth capex 13653000000; upkeep 30643000000; cash acquisitions 4378000000; owner earnings 29243000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6165920049242554.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: growth capex 16233000000; upkeep 32644000000; owner earnings 42857000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.37877126257087523.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF0G.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: growth capex 33120000000; upkeep 34431000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 42929000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7715064408674789.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Incremental return on capital 0.03391244558075059, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Dividend observations: [[2017,5493000000],[2018,5492000000],[2019,6101000000],[2020,6105000000],[2021,5803000000],[2022,4886000000],[2023,4885000000],[2024,5192000000],[2025,9758000000],[2026,12405000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF0G.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: cash repurchases 10006000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.014438682406013932. Price 757.7000122070312; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 25.49348404676716 → FY2026 73. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 912.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 961.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 928.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 883.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 882.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 892.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 920.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 940.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 924.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 915.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 928.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 986.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 992.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 991.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,036.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 939.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 909.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,002.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,012.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,072.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,096.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,102.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,244.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,226.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,256.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,278.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,250.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,308.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,430.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,340.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,448.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,418.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,352.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,328.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,346.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,342.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,404.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,322.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,256.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,038.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,278.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,220.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,280.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,232.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,048.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,282.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,210.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,482.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,600.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,530.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,590.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,488.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,420.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,360.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,306.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,222.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,184.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,198.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,148.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,022.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,014.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,030.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 940.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 957.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 999.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 861.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 971.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,016.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,064.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,054.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,044.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,024.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 968.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 951.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 949.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 929.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,008.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 982.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 904.60 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 944.80 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,008.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,028.40 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 894.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 852.60 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 887.80 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 865.20 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 840.60 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 834.80 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 772.60 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 756.80 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 746.60 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 752.60 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 712.80 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 684.80 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 684.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 788.60 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 768.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 787.20 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 772.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 761.40 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 774.60 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 701.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 701.20 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 707.40 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 742.20 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 765.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 731.40 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 814.80 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 810.80 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 771.40 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 839.40 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 771.30 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 737.30 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 737.90 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 747.80 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 809.80 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 783.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 757.70 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 746.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 792.31 per share, central JPY 863.94 per share, high JPY 959.30 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 383.12 per share, central JPY 438.99 per share, high JPY 500.14 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 764.53 per share, central JPY 910.97 per share, high JPY 1,050.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF0G.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations