# West Japan Railway (9021.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9021.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:52.283Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,965.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 3,272.33 per share, central JPY 3,728.14 per share, high JPY 4,263.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,728.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:52.283Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.2% at the stated quote. About 12.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.59×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: -0.27×

- FY2022: -0.12×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 16.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.6%

- FY2018: 7.0%

- FY2019: 7.0%

- FY2020: 5.3%

- FY2021: -9.1%

- FY2022: -4.1%

- FY2023: 3.6%

- FY2024: 5.5%

- FY2025: 5.3%

- FY2026: 5.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 316B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 316B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.0% vs 5.5%

- Per-share earnings: 235.76 to 240.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 34B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -14B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 0.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 4.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 235.76

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 240.08

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 37B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 476B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 235.76

- FY2018: JPY 285.36

- FY2019: JPY 266.66

- FY2020: JPY 233.44

- FY2021: JPY -609.73

- FY2022: JPY -258.03

- FY2023: JPY 181.63

- FY2024: JPY 202.63

- FY2025: JPY 240.08

- FY2026: JPY 277.73

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.7%

- FY2018: -5.4%

- FY2019: -5.8%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -4.5%

- FY2026: -5.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.9% a year for ten years · sales +8.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.847Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCFK.pdf; observed 2026-06-16.

- FY2017: JPY 1.44T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.50T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.53T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.51T 

- FY2021: JPY 920B 

- FY2022: JPY 1.03T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.40T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.64T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.71T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.85T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCFK.pdf; observed 2026-06-16.

- FY2023: 19.3% 

- FY2024: 24.2% 

- FY2025: 24.5% 

- FY2026: 25.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCFK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: revenue 1845840000000; grossProfit 462317000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.2% to 25% during 2024–26; it earns 5.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9021.T (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.2%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9021.T (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.5%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9021.T (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 25%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06568403956525835],[2018,0.06983037318874398],[2019,0.07025288448297688],[2020,0.05251462697200802],[2021,-0.09146193929905308],[2022,-0.041115340459907446],[2023,0.036212493202341024],[2024,0.054971532191782906],[2025,0.05250193175846553],[2026,0.05858175416295816]]; median 0.05374307958189546. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 82.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 2.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 208832000000; owner earnings 45185000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2018: growth capex 38143000000; upkeep 163562000000; owner earnings 110493000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.34520738870335677.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2019: growth capex 45910659763.9389; upkeep 211353340236.0611; owner earnings 54584659763.9389. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8410908845541538.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2023: growth capex 86358000000; upkeep 159655000000; owner earnings 88528000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.975487981203687.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: growth capex 86030000000; upkeep 163322000000; owner earnings 98761000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.871092840291208.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: growth capex 113893000000; upkeep 169352000000; owner earnings 113958000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9994296144193475.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCFK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: growth capex 105292000000; upkeep 177847000000; owner earnings 127499000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8258260849104699.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Incremental return on capital 0.029364785206832524, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Dividend observations: [[2017,27118000000],[2018,29049000000],[2019,32329000000],[2020,34999000000],[2021,24870000000],[2022,23214000000],[2023,24400000000],[2024,32290000000],[2025,38001000000],[2026,42818000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCFK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: cash repurchases 50000000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03992173605272492. Price 2965; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 221.765 → FY2026 277.73. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,478.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,586.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,680.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,718.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,620.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,722.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,844.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,968.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,959.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,995.50 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,911.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,986.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,128.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,113.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,088.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,720.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,715.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,875.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,914.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 4,082.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,900.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,728.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,960.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,788.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,954.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,880.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,969.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 4,195.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 4,169.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 4,131.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 4,250.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 4,358.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 4,469.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 4,475.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,565.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 4,708.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,818.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,720.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,637.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,809.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,698.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,333.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,475.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,023.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,264.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,785.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,595.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,230.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,382.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,699.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,780.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,257.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,067.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,016.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,115.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,167.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,958.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 3,008.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,822.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,681.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,449.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,405.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,394.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,476.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,545.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,422.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,377.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,495.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,436.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,716.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,770.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,950.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,918.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,864.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,717.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,642.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,728.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,945.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,920.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,995.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,921.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,152.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,092.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,873.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,923.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,940.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,075.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,115.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,137.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,994.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,138.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,995.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,956.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,779.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,724.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,712.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,815.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,797.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,863.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,978.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,916.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,996.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,119.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,302.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,321.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,295.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,243.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,161.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,108.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,126.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,159.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,354.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,128.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,831.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,628.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,725.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,001.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,015.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,942.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,943.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,663.39 per share, central JPY 1,875.27 per share, high JPY 2,157.33 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 3,272.33 per share, central JPY 3,728.14 per share, high JPY 4,263.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCFK.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations