# Central Japan Railway (9022.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9022.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:52.344Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,701.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 5,649.25 per share, central JPY 6,658.79 per share, high JPY 7,696.13 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,658.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:52.344Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.3% at the stated quote. About 16.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.75×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.35×

- FY2018: 0.36×

- FY2019: 0.38×

- FY2020: 0.36×

- FY2021: -0.22×

- FY2022: 0.00×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.36×

- FY2025: 0.38×

- FY2026: 0.41×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 49.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 12.3%

- FY2018: 12.7%

- FY2019: 12.3%

- FY2020: 10.5%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: 0.0%

- FY2023: 6.2%

- FY2024: 9.5%

- FY2025: 9.3%

- FY2026: 10.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.56T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.56T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 10.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.3% vs 9.5%

- Per-share earnings: 399.30 to 465.88 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: JPY 386B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 2.26T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 1.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 66.58

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 399.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 465.88

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 161B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.99T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 399.30

- FY2018: JPY 403.10

- FY2019: JPY 447.79

- FY2020: JPY 405.57

- FY2021: JPY -205.09

- FY2022: JPY -52.77

- FY2023: JPY 222.99

- FY2024: JPY 390.66

- FY2025: JPY 465.88

- FY2026: JPY 570.84

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.35×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -2.4%

- FY2019: -1.7%

- FY2020: -2.1%

- FY2021: -0.3%

- FY2022: -1.3%

- FY2023: -2.8%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: -1.6%

- FY2026: -1.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.9% a year for ten years · sales +9.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.853Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD7H.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 1.76T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.82T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.88T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.84T 

- FY2021: JPY 824B 

- FY2022: JPY 935B 

- FY2023: JPY 1.40T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.71T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.83T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.01T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 52.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD7H.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 45.7% 

- FY2018: 46.9% 

- FY2019: 48.3% 

- FY2020: 46.3% 

- FY2022: 17.3% 

- FY2023: 39.5% 

- FY2024: 46.7% 

- FY2025: 49.3% 

- FY2026: 52.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are JPY 2 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD7H.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 2006218000000; grossProfit 1046972000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.7% to 52.2% during 2024–26; it earns 9.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/JAP.F.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/JAP.F.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 49.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/JAP.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 52.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.12336132487739841],[2018,0.12720037274988585],[2019,0.12341980544188871],[2020,0.10493302783388474],[2021,-0.033611443430993544],[2022,0.00031019998671215186],[2023,0.062254757229754355],[2024,0.09454930901025393],[2025,0.09269726610292113],[2026,0.09959719654871364]]; median 0.09707325277948378. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 57.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 10% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 47301824050.76694; upkeep 268895175949.23306; owner earnings 349403824050.76697. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13537866730357873.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 92833000000; upkeep 216027000000; owner earnings 395502000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2347219483087317.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 141570371789.0755; upkeep 252330628210.9245; owner earnings 397646371789.0755. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.35602078085643646.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 449456000000; owner earnings 162942000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 234453000000; upkeep 219614000000; owner earnings 219417000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0685270512312173.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 187169000000; upkeep 216406000000; owner earnings 384411000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.48689813767035806.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 256870000000; upkeep 208042000000; owner earnings 458423000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5603340146545875.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD7H.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 318194000000; upkeep 205935000000; owner earnings 552871000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5755302774064837.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Incremental return on capital 0.09975704792334772, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,25610000000],[2018,27580000000],[2019,27580000000],[2020,29550000000],[2021,27580000000],[2022,25610000000],[2023,25610000000],[2024,27580000000],[2025,29550000000],[2026,31262000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD7H.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 110000000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 5.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09624950710996866. Price 3701; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 344.71255893788526 → FY2026 570.84. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,736.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,846.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,654.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,676.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,628.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,737.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,627.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,662.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,550.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,726.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,946.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,114.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,155.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,036.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,130.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,990.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 4,026.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,394.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,502.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 4,592.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,649.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,463.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 4,732.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 4,330.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 4,665.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 4,633.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 4,698.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 4,995.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 5,142.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 4,779.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 4,529.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 4,316.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 4,384.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 4,203.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,444.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 4,459.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,419.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,400.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,317.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,556.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,464.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,401.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,687.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,338.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,541.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 3,178.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 3,018.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,517.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,660.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,918.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,960.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,482.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,197.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,253.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,370.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 3,171.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 3,225.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 3,575.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 3,380.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 3,120.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 3,069.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 3,029.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 3,098.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 3,193.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 3,282.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,194.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,131.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,116.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 3,289.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,387.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,453.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 3,326.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,241.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 3,168.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 3,062.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 3,162.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,369.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,397.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,612.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,627.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,738.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,635.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,396.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,550.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,584.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,693.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,769.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,742.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,617.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,511.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,473.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,545.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,380.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,317.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,188.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,087.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,965.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,889.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,962.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,854.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,931.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,161.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,232.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,511.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,923.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,243.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,766.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,268.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,337.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,307.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,608.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,084.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,744.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,479.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,469.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,988.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,976.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,724.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,627.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 4,913.11 per share, central JPY 5,486.26 per share, high JPY 6,249.25 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 5,159.54 per share, central JPY 5,771.21 per share, high JPY 6,585.47 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 4,824.10 per share, central JPY 5,387.62 per share, high JPY 6,137.79 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,547.61 per share, central JPY 2,798.74 per share, high JPY 3,133.06 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,569.36 per share, central JPY 1,695.87 per share, high JPY 1,864.27 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,211.54 per share, central JPY 2,400.98 per share, high JPY 2,653.17 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,629.73 per share, central JPY 2,881.96 per share, high JPY 3,197.05 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,694.65 per share, central JPY 4,241.81 per share, high JPY 4,863.31 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 5,649.25 per share, central JPY 6,658.79 per share, high JPY 7,696.13 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD7H.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations