# Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9107.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:54.456Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,373.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,948.47 per share, central JPY 5,564.83 per share, high JPY 6,385.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 5,564.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:54.456Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.6% at the stated quote. About 15.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.87×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.04×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: -0.03×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: -0.03×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 1.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 9.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.4%

- FY2018: 1.0%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: 0.9%

- FY2021: -3.5%

- FY2022: 1.6%

- FY2023: 5.2%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 5.5%

- FY2026: 4.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.77T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.88T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 33.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.68×

- FY2025: 0.87×

- FY2026: 0.73×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -3.8% vs 4.7%

- Per-share earnings: -132.45 to 210.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.39T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.26T

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: JPY 342.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY -132.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 210.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.11

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 3.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.75T

- ROIC, first three-year median: -3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY -165.36

- FY2018: JPY 12.35

- FY2019: JPY -132.45

- FY2020: JPY 6.28

- FY2021: JPY 129.48

- FY2022: JPY 765.28

- FY2023: JPY 857.01

- FY2024: JPY 141.37

- FY2025: JPY 460.11

- FY2026: JPY 210.42

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.6%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.1%

- FY2018: 0.9%

- FY2019: -11.0%

- FY2020: 3.0%

- FY2021: 7.7%

- FY2022: 26.4%

- FY2023: 11.6%

- FY2024: -4.8%

- FY2025: 1.5%

- FY2026: -5.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.2% a year for ten years · sales -2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.879Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -2.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY 1.03T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.16T 

- FY2019: JPY 837B 

- FY2020: JPY 735B 

- FY2021: JPY 625B 

- FY2022: JPY 757B 

- FY2023: JPY 943B 

- FY2024: JPY 958B 

- FY2025: JPY 1.05T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.02T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 16.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: 2.9% 

- FY2018: 6.8% 

- FY2019: 4.3% 

- FY2020: 8.7% 

- FY2021: 5.7% 

- FY2022: 10.0% 

- FY2023: 15.1% 

- FY2024: 16.7% 

- FY2025: 17.4% 

- FY2026: 16.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 1018364000000; grossProfit 168909000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.6% to 17.4% during 2024–26; it earns 1.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 16.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.06417789847783813],[2018,0.010155457483139969],[2019,-0.03840865447927088],[2020,0.009425769060701214],[2021,-0.03503172153439075],[2022,0.016445292532060056],[2023,0.05195959569337005],[2024,0.04165581373428628],[2025,0.0552821435581359],[2026,0.04738425021478413]]; median 0.013300375007600012. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back JPY 3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2018: growth capex 56290000000; upkeep 43410000000; owner earnings 10384000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.420839753466872.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 42123000000; owner earnings 110403480851.98322. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 41961000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 643278402172.4843. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2023: growth capex 26112000000; upkeep 42396000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 694904000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.03757641343264681.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: growth capex 7788399953.472366; upkeep 76717600046.52763; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 69821399953.47237. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.11154746193376824.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: growth capex 43558297952.32248; upkeep 88531702047.67752; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 265989297952.32248. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.16375958840317753.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 88715000000; owner earnings 96650000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,2351000000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,84506000000],[2024,98307000000],[2025,69328000000],[2026,70166000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 3000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09979020768900801. Price 3373; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 278.89 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 294.44 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 305.56 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 336.67 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 328.89 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 325.56 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 318.89 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 300.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 304.44 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 331.11 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 328.89 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 328.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 321.56 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 318.78 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 321.44 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 288.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 277.11 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 281.11 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 248.89 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 227.44 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 225.22 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 228.44 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 255.22 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 167.67 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 181.22 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 150.56 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 157.67 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 174.67 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 132.22 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 178.89 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 136.33 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 146.11 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 155.33 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 118.78 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 139.67 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 181.44 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 201.89 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 207.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 164.89 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 135.11 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 90.22 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 119.67 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 123.44 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 112.67 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 106.56 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 131.44 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 129.78 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 140.67 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 187.67 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 234.67 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 203.44 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 222.78 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 281.67 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 338.33 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 328.22 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 443.89 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 413.33 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 612.22 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 675.56 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 608.89 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 541.11 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 768.89 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 786.67 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 894.44 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 891.11 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 761.11 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,137.78 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 916.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,085.56 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 986.67 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 677.33 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 753.67 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 866.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 929.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 898.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,088.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,008.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,075.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,045.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,173.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,427.33 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,628.67 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,701.33 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,714.33 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,729.67 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,016.67 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,400.33 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,384.33 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,017.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,211.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,331.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,340.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,340.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,138.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,214.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,125.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,992.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,254.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,973.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,181.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,023.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,950.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,177.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,044.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,142.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,268.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,106.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,213.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,078.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,181.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,229.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,513.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,639.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,562.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,520.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,485.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,850.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,330.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,326.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,477.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2024: low JPY 2,913.08 per share, central JPY 3,266.29 per share, high JPY 3,736.48 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,657.22 per share, central JPY 5,261.17 per share, high JPY 6,065.17 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,948.47 per share, central JPY 5,564.83 per share, high JPY 6,385.34 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6B.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations