# Nippon Express Holdings (9147.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9147.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:54.809Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,900.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,467.29 per share, central JPY 1,542.43 per share, high JPY 1,642.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,542.43 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:54.809Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.8% at the stated quote. About 3.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 8.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.5%

- FY2018: 6.3%

- FY2019: 7.0%

- FY2020: 4.9%

- FY2021: 6.4%

- FY2022: 14.6%

- FY2023: 4.9%

- FY2024: 2.4%

- FY2025: 2.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.68×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 158B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 234B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.05×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: -11.40×

### management: fail

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.3% vs 2.5%

- Per-share earnings: 123.77 to 121.47 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Per-share value growth: -0.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY -2.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 123.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 121.47

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 123.77

- FY2018: JPY 22.69

- FY2019: JPY 171.71

- FY2020: JPY 61.69

- FY2021: JPY 198.40

- FY2022: JPY 400.78

- FY2023: JPY 139.53

- FY2024: JPY 121.47

- FY2025: JPY 10.79

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 77.48×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.22×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.3%

- FY2018: -5.6%

- FY2019: -1.5%

- FY2020: -5.3%

- FY2021: 0.6%

- FY2022: -9.0%

- FY2023: -7.0%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -8.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 27.9% a year for ten years · sales -0.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.885Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 27.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -0.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTG8.pdf; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2017: JPY 1.86T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.00T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.14T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.08T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.76T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.62T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.24T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.58T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.57T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTG8.pdf; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2017: 8.7% 

- FY2018: 8.9% 

- FY2019: 8.8% 

- FY2020: 8.1% 

- FY2021: 9.1% 

- FY2022: 10.5% 

- FY2023: 10.2% 

- FY2024: 8.6% 

- FY2025: 9.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.6 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTG8.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: revenue 2574826000000; grossProfit 240662000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.6% to 10.2% during 2023–25; it earns 5.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 8.6%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTG8.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.055223830917824374],[2018,0.06301039623219355],[2019,0.06990635834588349],[2020,0.04924953047678995],[2021,0.06423856369688864],[2022,0.14588063496258577],[2023,0.04900942834022319],[2024,0.024337801269047346],[2025,0.02458820227154659]]; median 0.055223830917824374. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 11% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTG8.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.09079886257558349],[2022,0.1053390303968558],[2023,0.1016271872879929]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 74134000000; owner earnings 15873000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2019: growth capex 26592000000; upkeep 52147000000; owner earnings 49330000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5390634502331239.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 55877000000; owner earnings 55391000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 59334000000; owner earnings 113447000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 67441000000; owner earnings 10476000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 72995000000; owner earnings 9695000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,10923000000],[2018,11521000000],[2019,12480000000],[2020,15123000000],[2021,18226000000],[2022,36193000000],[2023,26663000000],[2024,26200000000],[2025,26519000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 27.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.39593114555091724. Price 5900; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2022-02: JPY 2,326.67 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,806.67 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,546.67 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,483.33 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,456.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,633.33 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,563.33 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,453.33 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,490.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,696.67 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,513.33 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,503.33 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,533.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,656.67 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,653.33 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,610.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,701.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,778.33 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,523.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,601.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,573.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,690.33 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,671.33 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,933.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,639.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,593.67 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,688.67 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,582.33 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,471.67 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,486.67 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,478.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,513.67 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,511.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,597.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,393.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,519.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,660.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,720.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,547.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,677.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,892.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,316.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,235.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,361.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,277.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,312.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,351.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,507.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,850.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,544.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,101.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,259.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,044.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,278.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,773.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,775.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,858.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 1,181.68 per share, central JPY 1,264.73 per share, high JPY 1,375.28 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 3,272.90 per share, central JPY 3,609.73 per share, high JPY 4,058.12 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,143.96 per share, central JPY 3,437.09 per share, high JPY 3,827.31 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,269.36 per share, central JPY 1,338.93 per share, high JPY 1,431.55 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,456.74 per share, central JPY 1,529.48 per share, high JPY 1,626.32 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTG8.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations