# Japan Airlines (9201.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9201.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:55.404Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,920.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,463.78 per share, central JPY 4,932.32 per share, high JPY 5,388.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 4,932.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:55.404Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 29.1% at the stated quote. About 29.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 7.45×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: -0.81×

- FY2022: -0.34×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -15.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 25.3%

- FY2018: 20.8%

- FY2019: 22.9%

- FY2020: 5.8%

- FY2021: -29.3%

- FY2022: -15.1%

- FY2023: 3.8%

- FY2024: 9.0%

- FY2025: 10.7%

- FY2026: 12.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 24B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 197B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -5.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 10.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.68×

- FY2023: 1.44×

- FY2024: 0.77×

- FY2025: 0.78×

- FY2026: 0.83×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.9% vs 10.7%

- Per-share earnings: 456.56 to 245.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.6%

- Market cap gain: JPY -121B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -139B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -7.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY -211.47

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 456.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 245.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.09

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 30B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 409B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 456.56

- FY2018: JPY 383.23

- FY2019: JPY 432.10

- FY2020: JPY 140.04

- FY2021: JPY -764.99

- FY2022: JPY -406.29

- FY2023: JPY 78.77

- FY2024: JPY 218.61

- FY2025: JPY 245.09

- FY2026: JPY 306.96

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.87×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -7.9%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: -3.2%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -10.3%

- FY2024: -10.1%

- FY2025: -9.8%

- FY2026: -8.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 14.3% a year for ten years · sales +9.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.892Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 14.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFIO.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 1.29T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.38T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.49T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.39T 

- FY2021: JPY 481B 

- FY2022: JPY 683B 

- FY2023: JPY 1.38T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.65T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.84T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.01T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 52.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFIO.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2023: 43.7% 

- FY2024: 49.1% 

- FY2025: 51.2% 

- FY2026: 52.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFIO.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 2012515000000; grossProfit 1052400000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 49.1% to 52.3% during 2024–26; it earns 9.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9201.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 49.1%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9201.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.2%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9201.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 52.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2533944460064772],[2018,0.2075394137479876],[2019,0.228776098906643],[2020,0.05814294990000779],[2021,-0.29255035237652594],[2022,-0.15069538178030345],[2023,0.03848345256176567],[2024,0.08989533732450995],[2025,0.1068953124741254],[2026,0.12551875609867122]]; median 0.09839532489931768. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 38.3% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 233125000000; owner earnings 13335000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 57261326678.81784; upkeep 150740673321.18216; owner earnings 89521326678.81784. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6396389419502065.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 65053993821.39664; upkeep 157072006178.60336; owner earnings 115189993821.39664. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5647538615399492.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 117488000000; cash acquisitions 3087000000; owner earnings 49471000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0624001940530816.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 68115000000; upkeep 149960000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 73402000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.9279719898640364.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 134076000000; upkeep 155907000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 83849000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5990172810647711.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFIO.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 36249000000; upkeep 166175000000; cash acquisitions 7722000000; owner earnings 114736000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3832362989820109.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,43481000000],[2018,51749000000],[2019,39347000000],[2020,38146000000],[2021,31000000],[2022,7000000],[2023,2000000],[2024,23924000000],[2025,37060000000],[2026,40120000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9201.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 20000000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 14.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.21126571239375963. Price 2920.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 74.27570242107436 → FY2026 255.9472294410046. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,385.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,415.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,602.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,669.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,526.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,520.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,245.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,474.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,568.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,778.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,808.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,870.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,116.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,408.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,113.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 4,089.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 4,282.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,310.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,218.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,928.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,123.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,005.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 4,084.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 4,017.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 4,094.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,891.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,964.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 4,065.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,899.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,729.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,413.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,443.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,427.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,319.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,212.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,374.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,402.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 3,397.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,678.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,990.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,940.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,117.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,942.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,711.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,114.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,966.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,817.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,977.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,995.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,530.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,470.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,321.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,499.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,401.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,283.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,341.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,665.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,451.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,056.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,196.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,148.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,297.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,290.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,151.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,346.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,375.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,314.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,574.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,582.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,775.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,733.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,695.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,750.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,564.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,582.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,586.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,666.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,120.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,076.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,001.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,908.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,764.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,811.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,775.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,843.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,796.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,914.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,799.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,647.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,538.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,463.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,455.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,517.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,455.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,495.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,492.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,557.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,581.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,556.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,581.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,923.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,941.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,009.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,137.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,983.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,778.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,913.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,905.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,924.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,228.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,559.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,454.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,739.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,850.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,943.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,012.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,069.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,941.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,767.57 per share, central JPY 1,890.17 per share, high JPY 2,053.38 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,209.09 per share, central JPY 1,229.11 per share, high JPY 1,255.76 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,350.79 per share, central JPY 3,662.99 per share, high JPY 3,995.68 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,463.78 per share, central JPY 4,932.32 per share, high JPY 5,388.73 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFIO.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations