# Ana Holdingsinc. (9202.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9202.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:55.454Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,852.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 6,528.86 per share, central JPY 7,136.84 per share, high JPY 7,879.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 7,136.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:55.454Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 122.3% at the stated quote. About 122.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 11.78×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: -0.64×

- FY2022: -0.17×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -9.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 7.9%

- FY2018: 9.0%

- FY2019: 7.9%

- FY2020: 2.4%

- FY2021: -22.1%

- FY2022: -9.1%

- FY2023: 7.5%

- FY2024: 13.6%

- FY2025: 12.3%

- FY2026: 11.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 467B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 425B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -18.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 1.31×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.9% vs 12.3%

- Per-share earnings: 282.35 to 335.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 134B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 73B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 52.74

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 282.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 335.09

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 133B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 402B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 282.35

- FY2018: JPY 417.82

- FY2019: JPY 331.04

- FY2020: JPY 82.66

- FY2021: JPY -1K

- FY2022: JPY -305.37

- FY2023: JPY 190.24

- FY2024: JPY 335.09

- FY2025: JPY 325.58

- FY2026: JPY 358.37

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.70×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.62×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.0%

- FY2018: -6.7%

- FY2019: -6.9%

- FY2020: -4.0%

- FY2021: -4.2%

- FY2022: -2.1%

- FY2023: -10.7%

- FY2024: -7.4%

- FY2025: -6.1%

- FY2026: -6.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 3% since Oct 2023 · sales +12.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.897Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 38.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKL4.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 1.77T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.97T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.06T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.97T 

- FY2021: JPY 729B 

- FY2022: JPY 1.02T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.71T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.06T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.26T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.54T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 18.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKL4.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: 24.9% 

- FY2018: 24.8% 

- FY2019: 24.2% 

- FY2020: 19.8% 

- FY2023: 17.8% 

- FY2024: 20.1% 

- FY2025: 18.5% 

- FY2026: 18.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKL4.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 2539233000000; grossProfit 464475000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.3% to 20.1% during 2024–26; it earns 7.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKL4.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 18.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.07927060139007762],[2018,0.08999924497937267],[2019,0.0785883754646575],[2020,0.024332791973926095],[2021,-0.22093036241533204],[2022,-0.09141833428804226],[2023,0.07506531517023896],[2024,0.13648235212057208],[2025,0.12325076057618328],[2026,0.11926286722484628]]; median 0.07892948842736755. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 55.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 12.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 154130820142.84732; upkeep 150576179857.15268; owner earnings 137531820142.84732. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1206920695353226.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 116892000000; owner earnings 117091000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 98154000000; upkeep 142315000000; owner earnings 154150000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6367434317223484.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 107271000000; upkeep 148659000000; owner earnings 150820000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7112518233656013.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKL4.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: growth capex 93288000000; upkeep 169012000000; owner earnings 167424000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5571961009174312.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Incremental return on capital 0.1257921843498023, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,17492000000],[2018,21021000000],[2019,20084000000],[2020,25105000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,23521000000],[2026,28220000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 38.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.5221163527298258. Price 2852.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -39.488483891513134 → FY2026 354.8705537779092. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,173.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,148.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,355.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,358.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,398.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,355.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,629.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,904.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,785.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 4,078.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,259.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,346.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,480.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,706.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,440.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 4,303.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 4,118.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,340.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,382.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 4,069.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,100.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,849.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,970.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,795.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 4,051.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,941.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 4,008.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 4,132.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 4,059.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,888.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,636.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,568.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,662.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,632.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,634.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,722.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,727.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 3,642.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 3,424.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,907.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,639.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,301.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,599.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,451.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,173.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,647.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,430.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,517.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,277.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,554.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,572.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,505.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,655.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,612.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,563.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,605.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,905.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,653.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,239.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,404.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,402.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,526.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,566.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,453.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,542.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,499.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,473.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,687.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,718.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,891.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,944.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,800.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,869.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,763.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,876.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,957.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,426.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,406.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,290.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,133.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,952.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,052.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,060.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,270.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,264.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,196.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,000.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,992.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,969.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,876.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,945.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,069.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,010.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,889.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,865.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,914.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,850.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,759.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,736.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,857.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,822.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,808.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,970.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,861.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,889.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,946.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,979.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,005.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,403.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,804.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,601.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,988.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,968.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,116.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,039.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,001.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,860.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2025: low JPY 5,999.15 per share, central JPY 6,482.73 per share, high JPY 7,126.49 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 6,528.86 per share, central JPY 7,136.84 per share, high JPY 7,879.55 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKL4.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations