# Kddi (9433.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9433.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:12:00.659Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,897.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,887.30 per share, central JPY 2,113.25 per share, high JPY 2,414.03 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,113.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:12:00.659Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- FY2026: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 16.3%

- FY2019: 15.2%

- FY2020: 14.6%

- FY2021: 15.2%

- FY2022: 15.0%

- FY2023: 13.9%

- FY2024: 11.1%

- FY2025: 9.4%

- FY2026: 8.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.83×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 2.72T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 3.29T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 36.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.74×

- FY2025: 0.80×

- FY2026: 0.82×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 221.65 to 161.86 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Market cap gain: JPY 6.89T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 2.09T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -3.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY -59.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 221.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 161.86

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 6.31T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.4%

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 221.65

- FY2018: JPY 235.54

- FY2019: JPY 259.10

- FY2020: JPY 275.69

- FY2021: JPY 142.08

- FY2022: JPY 150.01

- FY2023: JPY 149.15

- FY2024: JPY 141.75

- FY2025: JPY 161.86

- FY2026: JPY 183.59

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.53×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.8%

- FY2018: -7.4%

- FY2019: -5.6%

- FY2020: -7.1%

- FY2021: -9.8%

- FY2022: -7.2%

- FY2023: -3.6%

- FY2024: -7.9%

- FY2025: -3.6%

- FY2026: -5.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.906Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 4.75T 

- FY2018: JPY 5.04T 

- FY2019: JPY 5.08T 

- FY2020: JPY 5.24T 

- FY2021: JPY 5.31T 

- FY2022: JPY 5.45T 

- FY2023: JPY 5.63T 

- FY2024: JPY 5.70T 

- FY2025: JPY 5.84T 

- FY2026: JPY 6.07T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 42.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2018: 44.0% 

- FY2019: 43.6% 

- FY2020: 44.1% 

- FY2021: 44.9% 

- FY2022: 45.2% 

- FY2023: 42.8% 

- FY2024: 42.6% 

- FY2025: 42.7% 

- FY2026: 42.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 6.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 6071915000000; grossProfit 2590636000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 42.6% to 42.7% during 2024–26; it earns 14.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 42.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.1633509204766099],[2019,0.15192411675130918],[2020,0.1462766363808194],[2021,0.1517290210043106],[2022,0.15038798672917741],[2023,0.13949264729014085],[2024,0.11116189095841249],[2025,0.09356907253281847],[2026,0.08729057300922242]]; median 0.1462766363808194. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 14063000000; upkeep 546815000000; owner earnings 572528000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02456299080568985.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 18891299361.046387; upkeep 583246700638.9536; owner earnings 596824299361.0464. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03165303319799681.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 619304000000; owner earnings 583441000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 624636000000; owner earnings 621379000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 675567000000; owner earnings 594172000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 634125000000; owner earnings 586130000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 32806437796.0708; upkeep 716723562203.9292; owner earnings 441932437796.0708. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07423405704201622.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 682931000000; owner earnings 521195000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 679006000000; owner earnings 577456000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2018,219885000000],[2019,227700000000],[2020,257009000000],[2021,275993000000],[2022,271362000000],[2023,287117000000],[2024,297575000000],[2025,286885000000],[2026,301547000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); 客さまの満足度を維持できるかどうか・他の事業者と比較して、常により魅力のある端末やコンテンツ等の商品、サービスを提供できるかどうか・物販事業拡大に伴う商品不具合への対応・端末の高機能化等に伴う端末価格の上昇による販売コミッションの増加・迷惑メール、主にスマートフォンのセキュリティ脆弱性がもたらす脅威によるお客さま満足度の低下や防止対応コストの増加・新周波数対応による基地局建設やデータトラフィック急増に伴うネットワークコストの増加・当社の必要に応じた周波数を獲得できるかどうか・新たな高速データ無線技術による競争激化・通信方式、端末、ネットワーク、ソフトウェア等における特定技術への依存による影響・無料通話アプリ等の拡大に伴う音声通話料収入の縮小・他の電気通信事業者との接続料金値上げの可能性・異業種との提携、通信と電力等のその他商品とのセット販売、MNO、MVNO事業者の新規参入、他事業者の事業領域の拡大等の事業環境の変化に伴う競争の激化・金融事業における競争において期待通りの収入を上げられるかどうか・金融事業の市況変動及び債務者の信用状況の悪化により、不良債権の増加や担保不動産価値の減少が生じることによる貸倒引当金の追加計上・燃料高騰等による通信設備コストの増加及びエネルギー事業における電力調達コストの増加・日本国内における人件費や建設費、物価の高騰に伴う仕入コスト等の増加・米国による関税率の引き上げに伴う端末価格等の高騰 （２）通信の秘密及び顧客情報の不適切な取り扱いや流出、及び、当社の提供する製品・サービスの不適切な利用等近年、サイバー攻撃の手法は一層高度化・巧妙化しており、ランサムウェア攻撃やAIを用いた攻撃などの増加により、企業活動に重大な影響を及ぼすリスクが高まっています。例えば、地政学的な背景を有する高度な攻撃によるサービス停止や機密情報の漏えいは、企業にとって深刻な脅威であるのみならず、我が国の安全保障にも影響を及ぼす可能性があります。また、フィッシング詐欺をはじめとする不正行為も増加しており、お客さまが利用するサービスの不正利用による被害につながっています。こうしたリスクに対応するため、当社グループでは、「KDDIセキュリティポリシー」「データ利用における基本指針」「KDDIプライバシーポリシー」および「KDDIグループAI開発・利活用原則」を策定し、KDDIグループ全体の情報セキュリティガバナンスの強化に継続的に取り組んでいます。また、当社は、情報資産の保護・管理を適切に行うため、代表取締役社長を委員長とするリスクマネジメント委員会の配下に、経営層および事業・技術・コーポレート各部門の統括責任者で構成される情報セキュリティ部会を設置しています。同部会において、内部からの情報漏えい防止や外部ネットワークからの不正侵入対策など、全社的な情報セキュリティ施策を策定・推進します。このような体制のもと、当社はリスクへの対応を継続的に実施しています。想定されるリスクの一つとして、悪意を持った第三者によるサイバー攻撃などにより、サービス停止やサービスの品質低下といった事業影響が生じる可能性があります。これらのリスクの回避および低減に向け、事業を担うシステムが守るべきセキュリティ対策の基準を規程として定めています。システム化検討段階におけるチェックに加え、開発段階では、脆弱性への対応として、ネットワークやWebサービスに問題がないかの点検を実施しています。さらに、リリース後も、定期的な監査、点検および脆弱性診断を継続することで、セキュリティレベルの維持・強化に取り組んでいます。また、システムへの不正侵入により通信の秘密および顧客情報が漏えいする可能性があります。当社では、こうした脅威に迅速に対応できる環境を整備するとともに、情報漏えいの防止に向け、全社的な対応策の策定およびGDPRをはじめとするグローバルな法制度に対応しています。セキュリティ監視においては、不正アクセスや改ざん、標的型攻撃などの脅威に対し、24時間365日の体制で監視しています。監視機器から出力されるログをベースに監視・分析・検知を行うとともに、社内の関係部門と連携し、万が一の有事においても監視が継続できるよう、事業継続計画に基づき体制や手順の整備を行っています。これに加え、お客さまのデータおよび提供サービスを守るため、当社社員に対し、通信の秘密および顧客情報保護に関する教育を継続的に実施しています。業務委託先に対しても、情報漏えいのリスクを踏まえた定期的な監査や教育、セキュ

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06288328391137787. Price 2897.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,499.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,479.75 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,469.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,461.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,477.75 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,533.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,487.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,483.50 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,483.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,512.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,607.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,402.25 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,376.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,317.75 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,358.25 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,468.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,472.75 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,515.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,556.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,470.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,569.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,407.25 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,332.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,312.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,361.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,344.25 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,192.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,270.25 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,394.25 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,371.75 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,426.75 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,417.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,412.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,499.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,569.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,626.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,635.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,529.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,595.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,554.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,568.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,617.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,629.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,539.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,328.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,396.25 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,491.25 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,533.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,539.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,645.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,697.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,653.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,858.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,732.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,666.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,685.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,845.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,764.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,650.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,681.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,822.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,878.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,002.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,167.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,243.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,144.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,146.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,138.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,121.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,197.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,055.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,991.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,029.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,993.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,046.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,124.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,145.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,225.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,093.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,162.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,288.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,243.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,312.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,243.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,448.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,277.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,244.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,200.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,168.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,127.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,260.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,455.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,297.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,389.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,475.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,521.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,593.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,447.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,359.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,523.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,499.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,480.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,485.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,550.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,360.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,461.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,689.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,708.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,606.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,671.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,723.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,582.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,738.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,745.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,921.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,959.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,928.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,881.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 1,661.38 per share, central JPY 1,869.30 per share, high JPY 2,146.08 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,653.89 per share, central JPY 1,870.31 per share, high JPY 2,158.43 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,787.42 per share, central JPY 2,008.69 per share, high JPY 2,303.25 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,838.56 per share, central JPY 2,064.67 per share, high JPY 2,365.66 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,887.30 per share, central JPY 2,113.25 per share, high JPY 2,414.03 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:12:00.659Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YKG2.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations